/Issued 6:13 PM CST, Saturday, December 2, 2017/
Storm Track for Monday through Tuesday morning (Black line on map) This developing storm could have a little bit of everything — Rain, Snow, Wind and perhaps even a few Thunderstorms.
Map valid for Tuesday, December 5, 2017
Heads up for Monday! Note: Additional winter weather headlines may be needed for other parts of the Northland for Monday night. Stay tuned.
Future radar forecast per 18z NAM from 12.2.2017 — Note: It’s very possible will see some changes on the timing of when the rain turns to snow from what the images below are showing.
Based on today’s model runs, it looks like the rain would change over to snow in Duluth between 6 PM-9 PM Monday (Timing could change) As for potential snowfall amounts for Duluth, still a little early to predict with much confidence, but the potential exists for between 1 to 4 inches of snow Monday night.
Water vapor satellite loop of our approaching storm for Monday which is affecting the northwest U.S. today.
Temperature departure map from September 1 through November 30, 2017
Precipitation departure map from September 1 through November 30, 2017
Meteorological fall 2017 Climate Stats
Note: Meteorological fall is the period from September 1 through November 30
Average Temperature: 43.3 degrees
Normal: 42.5 degrees
Departure: +0.8 degrees above normal
Total Precipitation: 8.26 inches
Normal: 9.05 inches
Departure: -0.79 inches below normal
Total Snowfall: 21.6 inches
Normal: 16.1 inches
Departure: +5.5 inches above normal
International Falls, Minnesota
Average Temperature: 40.8 degrees
Normal: 40.1 degrees
Departure: +0.7 degrees above normal
Total Precipitation: 5.65 inches
Normal: 6.45 inches
Departure: -0.80 inches below normal
Total Snowfall: 14.0 inches
Normal: 16.0 inches
Departure: -2.0 inches below normal
Average Temperature: 45.0 degrees
Normal: 44.6 degrees
Departure: +0.4 degrees above normal
Total Precipitation: 9.93 inches
Normal: 5.94 inches
Departure: +3.99 inches above normal
Average Temperature: 46.3 degrees
Normal: 44.2 degrees
Departure: +2.1 degrees above normal
Average Temperature: 44.9 degrees
Normal: 43.1 degrees
Departure: +1.8 degrees above normal
Total Precipitation: 11.97 inches
Normal: 7.96 inches
Departure: +4.01 inches above normal
*5th highest maximum temperature on record for December 1 at International Falls, Minnesota. High temperature was 40 degrees tying it with December 1, 1914 for 5th warmest high. The record high temperature for December 1 is 56 degrees set in 1962.
*Today marks the 10th day in a row with an above average high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota (November 23-December 2) This is also our 10th day in a row with a high temperature above 32 degrees.
Our streak of no major storm impacting the Northland may be ending soon! Remember our last significant storm affected our area back in late October, so yes it has been a while!
We’re still in a mild zonal flow and this will continue Sunday, but changes are starting to take place as an upper level trough moves into the Pacific northwest today, its that system that will move into the Rockies and western High Plains on Sunday, then into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes for Monday. Our upper level winds will shift from today’s westerly direction to the southwest for Sunday and Monday, then to the northwest on Tuesday once this storm pulls away to the northeast. Above normal temperatures continue into Monday as will be on the east side/mild side of the approaching storm, but as the storm moves away, much colder temperatures will move in starting Monday night.
Quiet weather conditions continue tonight and Sunday morning as high pressure over the central Plains moves off to the east. Clear to partly cloudy skies for tonight with some sunshine expected Sunday morning. Lows tonight ranging from around 20 to 30 degrees with highs Sunday in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Clouds will likely be on the increase during the day Sunday but there should be some sun especially during the morning hours.
A few showers could pass through parts of the Northland Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening, and chances for showers or drizzle will continue Sunday night into Monday morning. Note: Only the extreme northern part of Minnesota has a chance for a light wintry mix during the Sunday night-Monday morning time frame, elsewhere it looks too warm for anything but rain.
As low pressure organizes and deepens on Monday, forcing should increase which will help to produce more widespread precipitation across the Northland from Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. As the atmosphere cools, will see the rain change over to snow from west to east across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Monday afternoon or Monday evening.
Note: There is still some uncertainty on when the rain changes over to snow, and this could have an impact on eventual snowfall amounts. The storm track and intensity could also change a bit during the next 24 hours or so, and this could result in more snow or less snow for our area.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 28 to 33. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Sunday… Some morning sun possible otherwise increasing cloudiness. A few showers possible later in the day. High 40 to 45. Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Occasional rain showers. High 40 to 45. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.
Normal temperatures for Sunday
Sunrise Sunday: 7:36 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 4:21 PM CST