/Issued 6:20 PM CST, Monday, December 4, 2017/
Here’s my updated snowfall map. For Duluth, I’m still thinking will end up with about 1 to 3 inches of snow, but I have to point out that there is some uncertainty on snow amounts even at this late hour as computer models continue to shift around on just how much snow falls in our area tonight. The trend I’ve been seeing per HRRR model is for 2 areas with heaviest snowfall, one over far northern Minnesota, the other setting up over portions of northwest Wisconsin later tonight, that leaves a bit of a void in between where there could be as little as a dusting of snow, to as much as 2 or 3 inches of snow by daybreak. Gotta love winter weather forecasting!
Winter Weather Headlines map
Pink=Winter Storm Warning
Purple=Winter Weather Advisory
Radar Image and approximate location of surface low at 5 PM today, December 4, 2017. Storm track through Tuesday morning is the red line on map.
Radar loop ending at 5 PM CST, Monday, December 4, 2017
RTMA model Temperature Map from 5:30 PM CST, Monday, December 4, 2017.
Warm on the east side of today’s storm, cold on the west side — Cold air spreads farther south/east as the surface low lifts northeast tonight.
21z HRRR model precipitation type future radar through 9 AM Tuesday.
Blue is snow
Green is rain
Pinkish colors is a mixture of precip
Note: Still looks like will see the rain change over to snow between 8-10 PM tonight here in Duluth.
18z RAP model temperature forecast for Tuesday morning. Strong cold air advection occurs across the Northland tonight. Here in Duluth, the 850mb temperature drops from +5C at 7 PM this evening to -15C at 7 AM Tuesday. Surface temperatures ~40 degrees at 7 PM this evening, fall to ~15 degrees by 7 AM Tuesday, impressive! Note: Wind chill temperatures will be even colder on Tuesday and will range from 5 above to around 15 below zero.
12z European computer model from 12.4.2017 – Wind Gust Forecast valid at 6 AM Tuesday. Strong winds will overspread the Northland from west to east this evening, and winds will remain strong through the day Tuesday. Wind gusts anywhere from 30 mph upwards to 50 mph are likely in our area. Meanwhile over Lake Superior, hurricane or near hurricane force wind gusts are possible late tonight and Tuesday (Around 75 mph!)
Visible satellite loop of today’s deepening low pressure system as it lifts northeast out of southern Minnesota. Note: The lumpier appearance to the clouds is indicative of convective activity
Water vapor satellite loop of this powerful storm lifting through the region today
Early December, and thunderstorms have been occurring today over parts of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. Note: Thunderstorms earlier this afternoon produced pea sized hail in parts of northern Minnesota!
Local Storm Reports for Monday, December 4, 2017
*5:53 PM CST: HAIL. 0.25 inch. Cloquet, MN 1 SSE (Carlton County)
*5:35 PM CST: HAIL. 0.25 inch. Little Round Lake, WI 7 NE (Sawyer County)
*2:30 PM CST: HAIL. 0.25 inch. Nashwauk, MN 5 N (Itasca County)
*1:55 PM CST: HAIL. 0.25 inch. Cohasset, MN 6 N (Itasca County)
*1:20 PM CST: HAIL. 0.25 inch. Hackensack, MN 2 NNE (Cass County) Pea size hail covered the ground.
Road Condition links
Power Outage Maps
Minnesota Power: http://outagemap.mnpower.com/external/default.html
Lake Country Power: http://mi.lcp.coop:82/#viewer-menu-parent
Low pressure of around 990mb was located near Duluth, Minnesota at 5 PM today, this low will continue to lift toward the N/NE moving to near/east of Thunder Bay Ontario Canada by Tuesday morning, as the low lifts NE tonight it will continue to strengthen with pressures bottoming out at around 974mb on Tuesday.
This storm will produce a variety of impacts in our area through Tuesday, aside from the snow, the wind and much colder temperatures may end up being two of the bigger impacts out of this storm.
*Winds will shift to the W/NW and increase to 15 to 30 mph tonight with gusts nearing 50 mph, these strong/gusty winds will persist into Tuesday.
*As the temperatures cool aloft and at the surface, rain will change over to snow from west to east across our area this evening.
*A period of moderate to heavy snow could affect parts of the Northland tonight but shouldn’t last more than a few hours in any given location.
*The rapidly falling temperatures combined with falling snow will create very hazardous driving conditions with roads quickly becoming snow/ice covered soon after the changeover from rain to snow takes place.
*Even if your location doesn’t get much snow, keep in mind that road conditions could still be very hazardous as wet roads turn icy as the temperature drops later tonight.
*The strong winds later this evening through Tuesday could cause scattered power outages in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
*Rain will change to snow between 8-10 PM tonight with snow overnight tapering to snow showers and flurries for Tuesday.
*Temperatures around 40 degrees early this evening falling to the mid teens by Tuesday morning.
*High winds develop this evening, most likely in the 7-10 PM time frame, wind gusts an excess of 40 mph are expected overnight through Tuesday.
*Scattered power outages are possible.
*Total snowfall of 1 to 3 inches by Tuesday afternoon.