/Issued 5:19 PM CST, Wednesday, December 27, 2017/
Here’s my snowfall accumulation map for Thursday’s event. I think most of us will end up with around 1 or 2 inches of fluffy snow tomorrow but a few spots could hit the 3 inch mark. The North Shore of Lake Superior could get more than 3 inches of snow due to possible lake enhanced snow with a southeast wind most of Thursday. Drive safely as roads will likely become snow covered and slippery from SW-NE across the Northland Thursday morning/early afternoon.
21z HRRR model
18z NAM-Nest 3km model. Simulated radar starting this evening, ending Thursday evening. Snow shows up as blue colors on this map.
18z NAM 12km
700mb forecast for Thursday. The darker orange and red colors on this map represent stronger lift, and that’s when we should see most of our snow on Thursday as that stronger lift moves through.
Forecast map for Friday evening
12z GEFS model from 12.27.2017
Loop below is the temperature anomaly forecast starting on December 27, 2017, ending January 12, 2018. Watch toward the end of the loop how the darker blue/purple colors (Colder temps) shift toward the northern Rockies and western Canada while orange and red colors (Warmer temps) expand over the south/east portions of the U.S. A possible pattern change is looming toward the 2nd week of January.
Low temperature reports for December 27, 2017
Cotton, MN 3 SE: -41 F
Embarrass, MN: -40 F
Effie, MN 7 E: -39 F
Togo, MN: -39 F
Littlefork, MN: -37 F
Bigfork, MN: -36 F
Northome, MN: -36 F
International Falls, MN: -37 F
Ely, MN: -35 F
Longville, MN: -35 F
Orr, MN: -35 F
Crane Lake, MN: -35 F
Cass Lake, MN: -34 F
Pine River, MN: -33 F
Clam Lake, WI 3 W: -33 F
Minong, WI 7 WNW: -31 F
Grand Rapids, MN: -30 F
Brule, WI 11 SSE: -30 F
Butternut, WI 3 N: -30 F
Walker, MN: -30 F
Brainerd, MN: -29 F
Twig, MN 3 WNW: -29 F
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: -28 F
Hayward, WI: -28 F
Winter, WI: -25 F
Proctor, MN 2 SW: -22 F
Duluth Airport: -22 F
Superior Airport: -22 F
Hurley, WI: -22 F
Duluth Harbor: -18 F
Ashland, WI: -18 F
Record low temperature at International Falls, Minnesota today, December 27, 2017.
New Record: -37 degrees
Old Record: -32 degrees set in 1924
Note: International Falls had their 4th coldest low temperature on record for December 26 on Tuesday with a low of -30 degrees. The record low for December 26 is -38 degrees set in 1990.
Link to road conditions
Wisconsin – https://511wi.gov/map
Still very cold today with highs ranging from zero to the single digits below zero. There was lots of sun today but high clouds were starting to approach from the west late this afternoon. Surface map late this afternoon places a 1042mb high over extreme southeast Minnesota, and now that we’re getting on the backside of that high, temperatures are warming up (slightly) 850mb temps at 4 PM were in the -22 to -24C range while 500mb heights have increased to 528 meters.
Tonight: Frigid temperatures once again under clear to partly cloudy skies but clouds will be on the increase during the night. Lows will be in the teens and 20s below zero but a few spots up north could dip into the 30s below. Light snow is possible after 4 AM around the Brainerd Lakes area otherwise dry weather will continue in our area.
Thursday: Snow. A weak area of low pressure will move east out of the northern Plains with a trough/occluded front connected to this low moving east into the upper Midwest. Model data shows quite a bit of lift as this system moves through on Thursday, but there really isn’t much moisture which isn’t surprising with how cold it’s been the past few days, PWATS on Thursday are forecast to range from 0.10 to 0.20 inches which is very low. Not much warm air advection either as 850mb temperatures will hold fairly steady from where there at late this afternoon (Around -22 C) The positives with this system would be the fact that the vort actually strengthens as it moves across the upper Midwest, but the negatives would be the weak surface low, and limited moisture. Snowfall ratios should be rather high, possibly around 25:1 which should give us 1-3 inches of snow despite the low QPF amounts per model data. Note: It’ll be interesting to see how large the snowflakes are on Thursday. With so much cold air in place, we could see smaller needle shaped snowflakes which could cut down on accumulations, but if snowflakes are larger, then it would accumulate more efficiently. High temperatures on Thursday will range from around zero to the single digits above zero.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Very cold. Clear to partly cloudy with increasing cloudiness overnight. Low 10 below to 15 below. Wind becoming south to southeast around 10 mph.
.Thursday… Light snow developing between 8-10 AM. Light snow during the afternoon. High 1 above to 6 above. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Thursday night… Light snow and flurries ending early. Total snowfall accumulations from 1 to 3 inches. Low 5 below to 10 below. Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
Normal temperatures for Thursday
Sunrise Thursday: 7:54 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 4:28 PM CST