Mild and breezy tonight with lingering snow showers (Patchy freezing drizzle also possible) Arctic air Wed night-Thur; Possible light snow event Fri PM

/Issued 5:15 PM CST, Tuesday, January 30, 2018/

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Source:  http://www.intellicast.com

Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 5 PM CST, January 30, 2018.

Snow in blue
Mixed precipitation in pink














Link to Road Conditions

Minnesota – https://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/winterdriving/routeselect.jsf

Wisconsin – https://511wi.gov/map

Weather Synopsis

There was a strong area of low pressure ~990mb over southwest Manitoba Province late this afternoon.  Ahead of this low was a 40-60 knot SW low level jet which is resulting in strong warm air advection over the upper Midwest this afternoon.  At 4 PM today, 850mb temperatures ranged from +6C in far western Minnesota to -10C in far northeast Minnesota.  Snow impacted all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin today with about a 2 hour window with moderate snowfall.  The limited duration of the heavier snowfall has kept snow accumulations to around an inch with two to three inch totals farther north.  Temperatures late this afternoon were in the teens with milder 20s and lower 30s found over western Minnesota.

Tonight:  Low pressure of ~989mb will move east out of southwest Manitoba Province reaching southern Ontario Province by daybreak.  A cold front attached to this low will move east and through the Northland tonight.  There will be lingering areas of snow and possibly some freezing drizzle in parts of the area tonight with additional snow accumulations generally of an inch or less, but the exception to this will be along the North Shore of Lake Superior where another 2 to 4 inches of snow is possible tonight especially north and northeast of Silver Bay.  Temperatures will slowly rise through the evening hours and should get into the 20s in most areas, then toward daybreak will see temperatures fall off to between zero to the mid teens.

Wednesday:  Arctic air will be moving into the Northland from N-S as low pressure passes north of Lake Superior.  Cold air advection will be occurring Wednesday with 850mb temperatures during the morning ranging from -20C in far northern Minnesota to -8C in northwest Wisconsin, by Thursday morning 850mb temperatures are forecast to range from -20 to -30C.  Highs will be in the single digits to lower 20s with lows Wednesday night in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero.  Scattered snow showers and flurries are possible Wednesday but accumulations should remain less than an inch.

Thursday:  Very cold but dry with some sunshine.  Highs will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with lows Thursday night in the teens, 20s and possibly even 30s below in the typical cold spots.

Note:  It will be breezy at times through Thursday with southerly winds tonight turning northwest for Wednesday and Thursday, wind gusts 20 to 30 mph are possible.  The combination of very cold temperatures and gusty winds will likely result in the need for wind chill headlines for most of the Northland for Wednesday night-Thursday morning.

Snowfall Reports from Tuesday, January 30, 2018
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Virginia, MN:  3.1 inches
Grand Rapids, MN:  1.5 inches
1 N Cloquet, MN:  1.0 inch
Danbury, WI:  1.0 inch
Lester Park, MN:  1.0 inch
Duluth Airport:  0.9 inches
5 NW Two Harbors, MN:  0.9 inches
3 N Amnicon Falls State Park, WI:  0.7 inches

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Breezy.  Snow showers and flurries at times.  Additional snow accumulations less than one inch.  Patchy freezing drizzle also possible.  Low 12 to 17 with slowly rising temperatures.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest late.

.Wednesday…  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.  Wind west to northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday…  Very cold.  Partly cloudy.  High 1 to 6 above.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  20
Low:     2

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:34 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   5:11 PM CST

Tim

Subzero temps again tonight followed by a bit of snow and milder temps Tue PM; Heavier snow north of Duluth (Winter Weather Advisory for far northeast Minn)

/Issued 7:15 PM CST, Monday, January 29, 2018/

Here’s my updated snowfall accumulation map for the Tuesday-Wednesday snow event, most of the snow will fall Tuesday afternoon-evening.

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM-Nest simulated radar forecast beginning ~7 AM Tuesday, ending Wednesday evening ~9 PM.

Snow (Blue colors)
Mixed Precipitation (Purple/Pink colors)

Note:  Looks like there could be some light lake effect snow showers affecting the North Shore of Lake Superior Tuesday morning, while snow spreads into western sections of the Northland before Noon.  The snow will then push farther east during the mid to late afternoon hours.  Another round or two of snow is then possible Tuesday night, and also Wednesday afternoon.

Source:  http://weather.unisys.com/

12z NAM from Monday, January 29, 2018

Weather Tidbits

-Low temperature of -7 degrees at the Duluth Airport this morning (January 29)  First subzero temperature since January 16, about 2 weeks ago.

Weather Synopsis

A chilly day with highs in the single digits and teens.  Skies were mostly cloudy to partly sunny today.  A large area of high pressure stretched from Manitoba Province, south through the central and southern Plains today.

Tonight:  Partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Very cold with lows in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero.  High pressure will move over the upper Midwest tonight before exiting off to the east toward daybreak.

Tuesday:  Increasing cloudiness followed by some snow.  An area of low pressure is forecast to be over western Saskatchewan Province during the morning, this low will then track toward the east, reaching southern Ontario Province by Wednesday morning.  Attached to this low will be a warm front and cold front, and those fronts will move through the Northland tomorrow and tomorrow night.  Strong warm air advection along with a 50+ knot SW low level jet will be found ahead of this system on Tuesday, and this combined with some decent lift will lead to some snow across the Northland.  Areas of freezing drizzle are also possible later in the afternoon-evening.  Highs Tuesday will be in the teens and 20s with near steady temperatures Tuesday night. 

Note:  Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times with potential for snow covered and slippery roads in parts of the Northland for Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Note:  Arctic air is set to invade the Northland beginning Wednesday night, and lingering through the weekend, along with the frigid temperatures will also be bitterly cold wind chills, and wind chill headlines will likely be needed at times beginning Wednesday night and through the weekend.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Very cold.  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.  Wind light and variable around 10 mph or less.

.Tuesday…  Increasing cloudiness.  Light snow developing during the afternoon.  High 19 to 24.  Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday night…  Light snow at times.  Total snowfall accumulations around one inch.  Patchy freezing drizzle possible.  Overcast.  Steady temperature from 19 to 24.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  20
Low:     2

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:36 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   5:09 PM CST

Tim

*Alert* Super Bowl Sunday looks cold in Minneapolis! Shocking, cold weather in MN in early Feb? Wow! Subzero tonight; Minor snow event Tue-Wed

/Issued 4:31 PM CST, Sunday, January 28, 2018/

Monday will be dry, but there is a minor snow event on the way for Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday – Greatest snow amounts at the moment look like they will remain north of Duluth with up to 3 inches of new snow possible in parts of northern Minnesota, and also along the North Shore especially northeast of Silver Bay.

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Temperature departure map for the week of January 21, 2018.

Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of January 21, 2018.

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

January 21-27, 2018

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

1/21:  36 F/+17 degrees above normal
1/22:  28 F/+9 degrees above normal
1/23:  23 F/+4 degrees above normal
1/24:  24 F/+5 degrees above normal
1/25:  24 F/+5 degrees above normal
1/26:  45 F/+26 degrees above normal
1/27:  31 F/+11 degrees above normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

1/21:  23 F/+22 degrees above normal
1/22:  14 F/+13 degrees above normal
1/23:  3 F/+2 degrees above normal
1/24:  2 F/+1 degree above normal
1/25:  21 F/+20 degrees above normal
1/26:  24 F/+23 degrees above normal
1/27:  13 F/+11 degrees above normal

Note:  Average temperature for the week of January 21, 2018:  22.2 degrees (+12.0 degrees above normal)  Source:  http://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total Precipitation:  0.10 inches
Normal:  0.19 inches
Departure:  -0.09 inches below normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of January 21, 2018
Source:  http://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  25.1 degrees
Departure:  +13.6 degrees above normal

Precipitation:  0.47 inches
Departure:  +0.33 inches above normal

Note:  After a very cold start to January, a couple of thaws recently have sent the monthly temperature above average across the Northland – Check out the stats below.

International Falls, Minnesota

Average Temperature:  6.6 degrees
Departure:  +2.4 degrees above normal

Ashland, Wisconsin

Average Temperature:  15.0 degrees
Departure:  +1.7 degrees above normal

Duluth, Minnesota

Average Temperature:  11.6 degrees
Departure:  +1.5 degrees above normal

Hibbing, Minnesota

Average Temperature:  7.3 degrees
Departure:  +0.8 degrees above normal

Weather Synopsis

A colder weather pattern is setting up and will linger for a while as the upper level winds shift out of the northwest.  Sunday afternoon 850mb temperatures ranged from -6 to -12C across the Northland with temperatures ranging from the single digits above zero in northern Minnesota to the teens in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, although a few spots in northwest Wisconsin were up around 20 degrees at 1 PM today.  Sky conditions ranged from mostly cloudy in northwest Wisconsin and near Lake Superior while mostly sunny skies were found over northern Minnesota.  There’s been some light lake effect snow showers and flurries today, mainly affecting the South Shore of Lake Superior.

Tonight:  Partly cloudy with more clouds and some flurries/snow showers continuing over parts of northwest Wisconsin, and along the South Shore.  Colder tonight with widespread subzero lows expected, likely the coldest night we’ve had around here in about 2 weeks!  Lows will be in the single digits and teens below with 20s below possible in the typical cold spots.

Monday:  Below normal temps, but should have quite a bit of sunshine on Monday.  Highs will be in the single digits and teens with lows Monday night in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero.

Note:  Our next snow event looks to impact the Northland from Tuesday into Wednesday as an area of low pressure moves east out of the northern Plains and southern Canadian Provinces — This system should bring some snow at times to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for Tuesday and Wednesday.  The story of the winter has been for minor snow events affecting our area, and this system will be no exception, as snowfall amounts look to remain on the light side, but possibly enough snow to cause some slick travel conditions.  Will warm-up briefly midweek before arctic air moves in later this week.

Note:  If I take a bit of break from my blog and social media this week, it’s because I’m already getting tired of reading tweets, facebook posts about the cold temperatures that are expected in Minnesota next Sunday for the Super Bowl.  I realize there are people that will be traveling to Minnesota from other states this week because of the Super Bowl, but I’m pretty we all know that it’s winter, the game is in Minnesota, and there’s pretty good odds that it will be cold around here.  But, honestly it doesn’t even look all that cold next Sunday per latest model trends, but I know the media folks have to hype it up, cold cold cold!!!!!!!!  Oh, plus the game is indoors, so who really cares how cold it might be outside!  Remember the hash tag #BoldNorth Okay then.  Carry on folks.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 8 below.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 9 to 14.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday…  Increasing cloudiness.  Light snow possible later in the day.  High 15 to 20.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  20
Low:     2

Sunrise Monday:  7:37 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   5:08 PM CST

Tim

Second warmest January 26 on record today at Duluth and Superior, 3rd warmest at I’Falls. Colder this weekend

/Issued 5:53 PM CST, Friday, January 26, 2018/

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov


A warm late January day across the Northland

Duluth, Minnesota:  2nd warmest January 26 on record with a high temperature today of 45 degrees.  The record high for January 26 is 47 degrees set in 1877.

Superior, Wisconsin:  2nd warmest January 26 on record with a high temperature today of 47 degrees.  The record high for January 26 is 52 degrees set in 1973.

International Falls, Minnesota:  3rd warmest January 26 on record with a high temperature of 37 degrees today.  The record high for January 26 is 43 degrees set in 2006.

Weather Synopsis

The trend for this weekend will be for colder temperatures, this will occur thanks to an area of low pressure which was north of Minnesota today, this low will setup to our northeast Saturday while two cold fronts drop south and through the Northland.  Winds will shift to the northwest Saturday afternoon and this will help drag colder temperatures down into our area.  Not a whole lot of snow through the weekend, but there will be some flurries and snow showers at times especially Saturday with a dusting to an inch of new snow for some of us.

Lows tonight will range from around 10 above to the lower 20s; Highs Saturday in the teens and 20s with highs Sunday ranging from around 10 above to 20 above.

Note:  The trend of no major snow events impacting the Northland looks to continue through next week.  A small snow event is possible next Tuesday-Wednesday, January 30-31, but that doesn’t look to be more than an inch or so of snow, otherwise it’s a pretty dry forecast around here through the first weekend of February the way it looks now.  The pattern also favors arctic air to return to the Northland starting later next week, around February 1st.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph, becoming west.  Wind gusts to 25 mph possible.

.Saturday…  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy, few peeks of sun possible.  Flurries or snow showers.  High 25 to 28.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  20
Low:     2

Sunrise Saturday:  7:39 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   5:05 PM CST

Tim

Ice coverage stats for Lake Superior, and snow stats for Duluth, MN in this post. Mild temps thru Fri

/Issued 6:15 PM CST, Wednesday, January 24, 2018/

Source:  https://www.glerl.noaa.gov

Source:  https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov

Lake Superior had above average ice coverage earlier this month, but the recent thaws have led to less ice coverage, and thus below average ice coverage here in late January.

Snow stats for Duluth, Minnesota

Winter of 2017-18 (Since December 1)  Total through January 24

Amount:  21.1 inches
Normal:  32.8 inches
Departure:  -11.7 inches below normal

Annual snowfall total (Since July 1)  Total through January 24

Amount:  42.7 inches
Normal:  49.5 inches
Departure:  -6.8 inches below normal

January 2018 (Through the 24th)

Amount:  7.7 inches
Normal:  15.7 inches
Departure:  -8.0 inches below normal

Note:  11 subzero nights so far this month at Duluth, Minnesota – The average for January is 14 nights.  Looking at temperature trends for the rest of this month shows that we might only get one more subzero night this month.

Note:  20 subzero nights so far this winter at Duluth, Minnesota – The average for the winter season (December 1 through February 28) is 34 nights.

Weather Synopsis

A few snow showers in parts of the Northland today otherwise skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy with highs mainly in the 20s.

Tonight through Friday:  There is potential for some fog and patchy freezing drizzle tonight and again Thursday night.  A few snow showers are also possible over parts of the area tonight and Thursday, and again Friday night.  Any precipitation that falls through Friday should remain spotty and light with no major impacts expected.  Lows tonight will range from the single digits to lower 20s with highs Thursday in the 20s to lower 30s.  Friday’s high temps are expected to be in the 30s to lower 40s.

An area of low pressure will lift northeast out of the northern Plains on Friday while a warm front and cold front attached to this low passes through the Northland on Friday, as this system exits to the east it will usher in a chillier airmass this weekend, especially on Sunday.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 8 to 13.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible mainly during the morning.  High 25 to 30.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Mostly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph, becoming southwest later in the afternoon.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  19
Low:     1

Sunrise Thursday:  7:41 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   5:02 PM CST

Tim