/Issued 6:03 PM CST, Saturday, January 6, 2018/
1.6.2018 European Ensemble computer model (12z run) The midweek system could have a rather nice temperature gradient to work with – Warm air ahead of the low with another shot of arctic air getting pulled southeast on the backside of the low pressure system.
Here’s where the computer models place the heaviest snowfall band which could have accumulations upwards of 4 inches or a little more than 4 inches.
Black outlined area is the Euro solution; Blue outlined area is the GFS solution from the 12z run from Saturday, January 6, 2018.
Note: We’re still several days away from this potential system so things could shift around just a bit in coming days including the snowfall amounts which could end up lower or even a little higher. Stay tuned.
18z GFS model from 1.06.2018.
Potential vorticity forecast starting Tuesday morning, ending Thursday evening – Our system to watch is the one that moves into California Tuesday morning. GFS model shows this system moving east through the southern Rockies, before swinging northeast out of the central Plains from Wednesday night into Thursday.
12z GEFS model from 1.06.2018 centered on Thursday morning, January 11, 2018.
Here are the last 5 model runs valid at 6 AM Thursday.
Red L on map is a surface low, and as you can see this model hasn’t changed much with where they place that surface low come Thursday morning (northern Illinois) This is the system that could bring some snow to parts of the Northland from late Wednesday into Thursday.
Here’s another tool that can help forecasters out – The images below are from the GEFS model, each image is an individual ensemble member from the GEFS model. There are 20 of them, and ~12 of them have at least 3 inches of snow for Duluth with that system for next Wednesday and Thursday, but there are a few others that show less snow with the higher totals remaining south/east of Duluth.
22z HRRR model simulated radar forecast through Sunday morning.
Pink=Mixed precipitation types
Started the day with some sunshine but clouds have been on the increase over most of the Northland this afternoon. High pressure has moved off to the east with low pressure to our northwest, this has resulted in a southerly flow with a warm air advection pattern now in place across the upper Midwest. 850mb temperatures early this evening ranged from +4C at Bismarck, North Dakota to -10C at Duluth, Minnesota. High temperatures today across the Northland were in the single digits to lower teens above zero which is still below normal for early January but warmer compared to the past few days/weeks.
Tonight and Sunday: Skies will be mostly cloudy with a potential for some light snow and flurries along with patchy sleet and light freezing drizzle as a warmer airmass continues to slowly scour out the arctic air. Temperatures will hold steady in the single digits and teens tonight with highs Sunday in the teens and 20s.
Note: Snowfall accumulations through Sunday should remain under an inch with the exception to this in far northeast Minnesota where 1 to 3 inches of snow could accumulate, especially along the North Shore in Cook County. Freezing drizzle could result in a light glaze of ice accumulation mostly on untreated surfaces. Drive safely!
An area of low pressure will pass by to our north through Monday. A warm front extending south of that low will move through the Northland Sunday, followed by a cold front which moves through our area Sunday night, high pressure will then follow the cold frontal passage for Monday.
Note: Of course the big weather story over the next couple of days will be the system that could impact us next Wednesday-Thursday, for now it’s wait and see mode on whether or not that system hits us, and if it does will it bring us a decent amount of snow? I’ll continue to watch model trends in coming days and continue to provide updates on this potential snow event. Should also be noted that we could be heading into a stormier weather pattern during the next few weeks. The GFS and GEFS computer models over the last few days have been showing multiple storms that could bring snow or perhaps some mixed precipitation to portions of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region
over the course of the next 2 weeks or so.
Link to road conditions
Wisconsin – https://511wi.gov/map
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Milder compared to the last few weeks. Snow showers and flurries. Snowfall accumulation less than an inch. Patchy sleet or freezing drizzle also possible. Low 5 to 10 with steady or slowly rising temperatures. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest late.
.Sunday… Considerable cloudiness. Patchy freezing drizzle possible. Milder. High 23 to 28. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 24 to 29. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for Sunday
Sunrise Sunday: 7:53 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 4:37 PM CST