/Issued 4:48 PM CST, Friday, January 12, 2018/
15z SREF model
Accumulated Winter Severity Index for Duluth, Minnesota – An average winter so far! Been plenty cold this winter, but not a whole lot of snow.
Note: Another night of wind chill headlines for the Northland; Wind Chill Warning north of Duluth, Wind Chill Advisory for the Twin Ports and for areas west, south and east of the Twin Ports.
Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI)
Still a ways to go, but so far this winter has been ranked as severe at International Falls, Minnesota.
Here’s the link to view how this winter ranks at other locations across the U.S. http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp
Note: More than 1,200 daily low maximum and daily low minimum temperature records were broken or tied from January 1 through 7, 2018. The period from December 25, 2017 through January 7, 2018 had more than 2,300 daily cold temperature records broken. Wow!
Low temperature reports from Friday morning, January 12, 2018
Embarrass, MN: -41 F
Ely, MN 25 E: -36 F
International Falls, MN: -36 F
Celina, MN 2 E: -35 F
Cotton, MN 3 SE: -33 F
Bigfork, MN: -33 F
Babbit, MN: -32 F
Northome, MN: -32 F
Cass Lake, MN: -31 F
Littlefork, MN: -31 F
Crane Lake, MN: -31 F
Ely, MN: -29 F
Northome, MN: -27 F
Orr, MN: -27 F
Oliver, WI 2 ENE: -27 F
Pine River, MN: -27 F
Walker, MN: -27 F
Aitkin, MN: -26 F
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: -25 F
Brainerd, MN: -24 F
Grand Rapids, MN: -24 F
Isabella, MN 1 W: -22 F
Grand Marais Airport: -20 F
Twig, MN 3 WNW: -20 F
Minong, WI 7 WNW: -20 F
Duluth Airport: -19 F
Cloquet, MN: -18 F
Superior Airport: -17 F
Hinckley, MN: -15 F
Silver Bay, MN: -15 F
Two Harbors, MN: -15 F
Duluth Harbor: -13 F
Grand Portage, MN: -12 F
Snowfall stats for Duluth, Minnesota through January 11, 2018
Snowfall so far this winter, since December 1: 17.0 inches (Last Year: 31.4 inches)
Departure: -8.1 inches below normal
Snowfall since July 1: 38.6 inches (Last Year: 39.5 inches)
Departure: -2.6 inches below normal
It looks nice out there with all that sunshine, but looks can be deceiving. Arctic airmass covered the area today with daytime highs only in the single digits below to a couple degrees above zero! 850mb temperatures ranged from -20 to -22C, so yes not quite as cold as the previous arctic blast at least at the 850mb level, but surface temperatures were just as cold this morning compared to the arctic outbreak in late December/early January.
Tonight: Bitterly cold! Mainly clear with lows in the teens, 20s and 30s below with 40s below possible again up north in the typical cold spots.
Saturday: Mostly sunny skies and very cold with highs in the single digits below to single digits above zero. Clouds will be on the increase Saturday night with lows in the single digits, teens and 20s below.
Sunday: Snow! A clipper system will head E/SE out of western Canada on its way to the Great Lakes region — A mid/upper level low will dig S/SE into the Great Lakes region on Monday. Snow should overspread the Northland from NW-SE from mid morning through mid afternoon Sunday with snow ending Sunday night from NW-SE. With the cold airmass already in place, we should see high snowfall ratios, possibly around 22:1 to 25:1 — This could lead to snowfall amounts in the 1-3 inch range over most of the Northland given the QPF numbers the computer models are showing today.
Note: A round of heavy lake effect snow is possible Monday and Tuesday along the South Shore of Lake Superior with arctic air moving over the lake (850mb temps -15 to -20C) combined with N-NW surface winds, and NE winds at 850mb — More than 6 inches of snow is looking quite likely Monday into Tuesday affecting Ashland and Iron County, possibly as far west as Bayfield and northeast Douglas County in northwest Wisconsin.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
Event: *Wind Chill Advisory*
Timing: 9 PM Tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday
.Tonight… Frigid. Mainly clear. Low 15 below to 20 below. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Wind chills 25 below to 35 below.
.Saturday… Frigid. Mostly sunny. High 1 below to 4 above. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph. Morning wind chills 25 below to 35 below.
.Sunday… Snow developing during the afternoon. High 3 to 8 above. Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.
Normal temperatures for Saturday
Sunrise Saturday: 7:51 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 4:45 PM CST