/Issued 5:26 PM CST, Thursday, January 18, 2018/
12z European Computer Model – 850mb temperature forecast for Friday, January 19, 2018. Our current thaw will peak on Friday.
Here are the latest potential impacts map and forecast storm track for the Sunday-Monday event. Note: Additional changes to this map are possible during the next few days.
Water vapor satellite image from Thursday afternoon, January 18, 2018.
Note: Our possible storm for Sunday and Monday still hasn’t reached the western U.S., but it will do that on Friday, and once this energy makes it onto the west coast it will be sampled better by the surface and RAOB observation networks, this should help the computer models zero in on a storm track and how quick or slow the system moves through. So in short, computer model runs Friday into Saturday morning should be interesting, not that they haven’t already been interesting the past few days.
Water vapor satellite loop from Thursday, January 18, 2018.
Our second January thaw this month continues through Saturday. Today’s highs were in the 30s over most of the area except in far northern Minnesota where it was slightly cooler with temperatures this afternoon in the upper 20s. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies were common today.
The peak of this thaw will occur on Friday with 850mb temperatures maxing out between +6 and +12C, should see highs well into the 30s tomorrow with 40s looking like a good bet as well for some of the area.
There could be some patchy fog late tonight, but this should burn off Friday morning, otherwise will have some sun along with clouds for Friday.
A cold front will pass through our area from west to east Friday afternoon-evening, little to no precipitation is expected with this front, and temperatures won’t be that cold behind this boundary this weekend, but likely won’t have any 40s for Saturday or Sunday, instead daytime highs should be in the 20s to lower 30s, maybe a few mid 30s thrown in though on Saturday.
Latest on the storm!
Of course the big story continues to be the storm for Sunday and Monday, the biggest trend I’ve seen today has been with the Euro model and its ensemble (00z run from last night and 12z run from today) Both have shifted the axis of heaviest snowfall farther south compared to the past few days.
Per Euro data, the max snow area would setup from south central Minnesota into west central/north central portions of Wisconsin, but some snow would still fall farther north including here in the Twin Ports but probably no more than a few inches.
Even though the Euro trended a bit more to the south, the other computer models haven’t (yet)
The GFS and Canadian models continue to show the axis of heaviest snowfall farther north impacting the Duluth area. And it should be noted that the GFS and Canadian models haven’t changed all that much the past few days, whereas the Euro model has been a little more shaky from run to run, and with that said I still put more stock into the Euro model based primarily on past experience with these larger storm systems.
Also of note are the NAVGEM and German model (ICON) both are complete misses with this storm, keeping it well off to the south. Oh boy!
***So for now, here’s what I’m thinking for Duluth and Superior, and this is likely to change in coming days***
-Light snow begins late Sunday afternoon or Sunday night with snow continuing into Monday
-East/northeast wind increases with gusts 20-25 mph Sunday afternoon, possibly over 30 mph wind gusts Sunday night and Monday
-Areas of blowing and drifting snow especially late Sunday night through Monday
-Potential for around 3 inches of snow (Confidence level: 3/10)
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 21 to 26. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 38 to 43. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.
.Saturday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35. Wind variable around 10 mph.
Normal temperatures for Friday
Sunrise Friday: 7:47 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 4:53 PM CST