/Issued 5:34 PM CST, Friday, January 19, 2018/
Remember that a Winter Storm Watch means that there is potential for significant snowfall, doesn’t mean it’s a lock just yet. Should see additional watches issued by the National Weather Service for areas farther east that aren’t currently in a watch.
Note: I haven’t noticed any trends in the 12z and 18z model runs today to make me want to change my map that I tweeted out earlier this morning. Surface low should be near or over southern Kansas Sunday, lifts northeast toward northern Illinois or southeast Wisconsin by Monday evening, this storm track is just too far south to give the Twin Ports much snow. Could it shift north a bit? Yes, but likely won’t be enough to get us into the heaviest snow band.
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Record warmth in parts of the Northland today, Friday, January 19, 2018
International Falls, Minnesota
New Record: 43 degrees
Old Record: 40 degrees set just last year (2017) and also in 1908
New Record: 39 degrees (Preliminary)
Old Record: 37 degrees set in 1942
Note: Brainerd, Minnesota had its 2nd warmest temperature on record for January 19 with a high of 46 degrees today. The record high for January 19 is 50 degrees set in 1981.
Note: Hayward, Wisconsin had its 4th warmest temperature on record for January 19 with a high of 41 degrees today. The record high for January 19 is 45 degrees set in 1908 and 1900.
Note: 40 degrees at the Duluth Airport today — First 40 degree temperature since December 4.
A good setup was in place for warm temps today with a deep surface low ~990mb off to our north which put us in the warm sector. Temperatures took off as expected with highs soaring into the mid 30s to mid 40s, well above average for mid January.
Will keep the mild temperatures through Saturday, although we shouldn’t have any 40s tomorrow, but still at or above freezing temperatures look like a good bet for most of the Northland.
I don’t see any prolonged stretch with subzero temperatures through next week, maybe a day here and there close to zero or below during the middle of next week (23rd-24th) And possibly a day or two near or below zero later next weekend (~28th)
Looks like will have generally mostly cloudy skies through the weekend, but can’t rule out a few breaks in the clouds from time to time.
***Latest on the storm for Sunday and Monday***
•GFS and NAM runs from today remain farthest north with the storm track and would bring accumulating snow as far north as Duluth.
•Canadian model shifted things to the south, and the GFS and NAM have as well compared to prior runs the past few days, but those 2 latter models are still far enough north to give Duluth some snow.
•European model remains farthest south, and really hasn’t budged a whole lot for the past day or so. Euro gives Duluth no snow, although its Ensemble model still manages to squeeze out around an inch of snow for Duluth.
•Thinking the GFS and NAM will continue to shift things further south over the weekend, so I don’t think we’re going to get much snow at all here in Duluth, but gusty northeast winds are still expected especially from late Sunday afternoon through Monday with wind gusts 20-30 mph possible.
•With those E-NE winds coming down the lake, there is a possibility for patchy freezing drizzle or light lake effect snow showers Sunday afternoon into Monday along the North Shore of Lake Superior into the Twin Ports area, but temperatures look too warm for any significant lake effect snow.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 23 to 28. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Considerable cloudiness. High 33 to 38. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Sunday… Mostly cloudy. Flurries or patchy freezing drizzle possible. Turning breezy. High 29 to 33. Wind becoming east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for Saturday
Sunrise Saturday: 7:46 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 4:54 PM CST