/Issued 4:06 PM CST, Sunday, January 21, 2018/
Larger view of the winter weather headlines that are in effect through Monday evening
Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for Monday’s event
Heaviest snow well south/east of the Twin Ports, but we could get up to one inch of snow in Duluth and Superior Monday due to some lake effect, but if the lake effect fails to develop, then little or no snow for us on Monday.
Water vapor satellite image from Sunday afternoon, January 21, 2018
Here’s a True-Color Goes-16 satellite loop of Monday’s storm as it heads out into the central Plains today (Sunday)
18z 3km NAM – Simulated Radar forecast starting late tonight, ending late Monday night.
Mixed precipitation types (Pink)
Note: This is one of the more southern solutions to the snow area on Monday, other models have the snow a little farther north.
Temperature departure map for the week of January 14, 2018.
Precipitation departure map for the week of January 14, 2018.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
January 14-20, 2018
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
1/14: 4 F/-15 degrees below normal
1/15: 8 F/-11 degrees below normal
1/16: 10 F/-9 degrees below normal
1/17: 27 F/+8 degrees above normal
1/18: 35 F/+16 degrees above normal
1/19: 40 F/+21 degrees above normal
1/20: 41 F/+22 degrees above normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
1/14: -13 F/-14 degrees below normal
1/15: 0 F/-1 degree below normal
1/16: -5 F/-6 degrees below normal
1/17: 2 F/+1 degree above normal
1/18: 20 F/+19 degrees above normal
1/19: 26 F/+25 degrees above normal
1/20: 26 F/+25 degrees above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of January 14: 15.8 degrees (+6.0 degrees above normal) Source: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 0.13 inches
Normal: 0.22 inches
Departure: -0.09 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of January 14, 2018
Temperature: 10.7 degrees
Departure: -0.5 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 0.11 inches
Departure: -0.06 inches below normal
Link to Road Conditions
Wisconsin – https://511wi.gov/map
Tonight and Monday:
Low pressure near the Texas Panhandle late this afternoon will track northeast, reaching extreme northwest Missouri Monday morning, this low is then forecast to pass through southern Iowa or near the Iowa-Missouri state line on Monday, before moving into northeastern Illinois Monday evening.
Multiple hazards are expected to occur in parts of the Northland through Monday as that low over the southern Plains heads northeast toward northern Illinois.
•Areas of fog
•Patchy freezing drizzle
•Light glaze of ice especially on untreated surfaces
•Gusty northeast wind
•Areas of blowing and drifting snow for locations that do get snow late tonight/Monday
The fog could cause reduced visibilities at times especially tonight while patchy freezing drizzle will likely occur through Monday morning.
As for the snow, this looks to impact northwest Wisconsin on Monday, but mostly affecting the south/east portions of northwest Wisconsin. Note: I still think the heaviest snowfall accumulations from this storm will occur from portions of southern Minnesota, possibly clipping the far south/southeast suburbs of the Twin Cities, then extending east/northeast into central/northeast Wisconsin (Snow totals from 6-10″+ look like a good bet for those areas by Monday night) Snowfall amounts will taper off considerably just north/south of the heaviest snow band, and computer models even at this late hour disagree on how far north the heaviest snow will get. One thing that looks like a certainty is that the Twin Ports will miss out on the heavy snow with this storm.
Note: With a favorable east/northeast wind coming down Lake Superior tonight and most of Monday, there should be some freezing drizzle and light lake effect snow showers that affect the North and South Shore, including the Twin Ports. There isn’t much cold air, and that should prevent heavier lake effect snow bands from forming, and thus I’m only expecting a half inch to one inch of snow near Lake Superior, but use caution if you will be traveling as there could be a light glaze of ice on roads, and perhaps a dusting of snow on top of the icing, areas of fog will also reduce the visibility especially tonight.