/Issued 6:05 PM CST, Wednesday, February 14, 2018/
12z Euro Ensemble Probability Forecast for more than 3 inches of snow by Tuesday morning, February 20, 2018.
12z WRF-NMM model simulated radar forecast beginning around Midnight tonight, ending Thursday evening ~6 PM.
Looks like there will be some snow, mostly light stuff or possibly just flurries that’ll push south/east across northern Minnesota late tonight, then spreading farther south/east across the Northland during the day Thursday. Not expecting much accumulation, perhaps a dusting up to one inch in a few spots.
Record high temperature at International Falls, Minnesota today, February 14, 2018.
New Record: 48 degrees
Old Record: 43 degrees set on February 14, 1999
Record high temperature at Ashland, Wisconsin today, February 14, 2018.
New Record: 48 degrees
Old Record: 45 degrees set on February 14, 1999
•Hibbing, Minnesota tied their record high temperature for February 14 of 45 degrees today. The previous record was set on February 14, 1999.
•2nd warmest temperature on record for February 14 at Duluth, Minnesota with a high temperature today of 42 degrees.
•5th warmest temperature on record for February 14 with a high temperature of 41 degrees today at Brainerd, Minnesota.
Figured it was going to be a mild day today across the Northland, but high temperatures exceeded expectations by a good 5 degrees or so! Sunshine and gusty southwest winds helped to produce widespread 35 to 45 degree temperatures in our area with International Falls just 2 degrees shy of 50 degrees this afternoon!
Early evening surface analysis had low pressure of ~1000mb over far northern Minnesota with a cold front just now entering the Red River Valley in northwest Minnesota.
850mb temperatures as of 5 PM ranged from +1 to +6C in our area with 925mb temperatures of +2 to +5C. Height falls and cold air advection will arrive later tonight into Thursday as a cold front continues to move southeast out of northwest Minnesota, this boundary will exit the Northland by Thursday afternoon as low pressure near the Minnesota-Ontario border late this afternoon reaches eastern Lake Superior by Thursday morning.
Expect some light snow and flurries to spread from NW-SE through the Northland late tonight through Thursday as colder air moves back in. There may also be some lake effect snow Thursday along the South Shore of Lake Superior as winds turn out of the north/northwest.
Lows tonight will be in the teens and 20s with little recovery in temperatures expected for Thursday. Lows Friday morning will dip below zero in some parts of the area.
High pressure passes through the upper Midwest Friday giving us quite a bit of sun but chilly temperatures. A shot of some light snow or flurries for Saturday followed by what could be a snowier pattern for Sunday through Tuesday but this is still a few days away so the computer models could shift where the axis of snow will be. Stay tuned.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Mostly clear followed by increasing cloudiness later in the night. Low 25 to 30. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming west to northwest late.
.Thursday… Breezy. Mostly cloudy with some light snow or flurries at times. Accumulations less than one inch. High 25 to 30. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
.Friday… Colder. Mostly sunny. High 12 to 17. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
Normal temperatures for Thursday
Sunrise Thursday: 7:13 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 5:34 PM CST