/Issued 5:25 PM CST, Friday, February 16, 2018/
Here we go…My preliminary snowfall map for Sunday through Tuesday.
12z NAM from 2.16.2018 — Surface Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid for Monday, February 19, 2018.
Check out this temperature gradient that is forecast to be in place on Monday, impressive!
12z NAM from 2.16.2018 — 850mb temperature, surface temperature and overall setup for Sunday, February 18, 2018.
Note: Sunday afternoon temperatures ranging from around 30 below zero near Hudson Bay Canada to the 70s in parts of the southern Plains.
The ice is on the move today! Goes-16 True Color satellite loop from Friday, February 16, 2018. Southwesterly winds over Lake Superior pushing the ice toward the east/northeast.
•So far this winter, 36 days with a below zero low temperature at Duluth, Minnesota. The average during the winter season (Dec 1 – Feb 28) is 34 days. Last winter had 22 days with a below zero low, while a couple of winters ago (2013-2014) 65 days with a below zero low temperature.
•The heaviest calendar day snowfall total so far this winter at Duluth, Minnesota has been 3.2 inches on January 11. Will see if we can get more than that Sunday, Monday or Tuesday.
Chillier temperatures today but not bad for mid February with highs topping out in the mid teens to around 20 degrees which is slightly below average for the time of year. High pressure was over the central Plains this afternoon with southerly winds and warm air advection returning to the upper Midwest. Sunshine most of the day has given way to some increase in high level clouds across the Northland late this afternoon.
An area of low pressure along with its warm front and cold front will pass through the area late tonight through Saturday afternoon, this isn’t a very strong system, and moisture is lacking, so not expecting much in the way of snowfall out of it, but a few flurries or snow showers could certainly zip through parts of the area late tonight or Saturday morning leaving behind a light dusting of the white stuff.
Warmer temperatures tonight compared to what we had Friday morning, lows tonight will be in the teens but single digits are possible in parts of the Northland.
Highs Saturday will be in the 20s to lower 30s with some partial sun expected at times.
A stronger but fast moving area of low pressure is expected to impact the Northland Sunday as the low tracks east/northeast out of the western High Plains. Snow for Sunday as this system moves through. The best lift should only last ~3 to 6 hours, but where that sets up and where the heaviest axis of snow sets up is uncertain late this afternoon. The Euro and NAM models are farther north keeping the heaviest snow north of Duluth while the GFS and other models are farther south with the axis of heaviest snowfall right through Duluth. In the heaviest snow band, totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected with about 1 or 2 inches north/south of the heaviest band.
More snow is possible at times Monday and Tuesday, and additional accumulations could occur in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Note: It also looks like will have east to northeast winds near Lake Superior for Sunday and Monday which could lead to some lake enhanced snowfall along the North and South Shores as temperatures should be cold enough to produce some lake enhancement.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Flurries possible toward daybreak. Low 10 to 15. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Saturday… Flurries or snow showers possible early otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 26 to 31. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday… Snow. Accumulations of 2 to 4 inches possible. High 20 to 25. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.
Normal temperatures for Saturday
Sunrise Saturday: 7:09 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 5:37 PM CST