/Issued 4:41 PM CST, Saturday, February 17, 2018/
Winter Storm Watch for Sunday north of Duluth. An upgrade to an advisory or warning is likely by late tonight or early Sunday morning.
Here’s my snowfall map for Sunday
•Heaviest totals look like they will be north of Duluth, although any slight shift to the south in the heavy snow band/storm track would put the higher totals into the immediate Duluth area. For now I’m sticking with 2 to 4 inches of snow for Sunday in Duluth with 4 to 6 inches north of the city, but this could go either way, might only get an inch, or perhaps over 4 inches of snow. It has bust potential!
•The North Shore could get 6 to 8 inches of snow thanks to some lake enhancement with easterly winds on Sunday.
•Expect reduced visibilities at times Sunday with roads becoming snow covered and slippery in parts of the Northland.
20z HRRR model
Goes-16 water vapor satellite imagery from Saturday, February 17, 2018. Impressive looking system over the northwest U.S. today, this system will impact the Northland Sunday and will bring with it a slug of Pacific moisture along with fairly impressive lift which should last roughly 3-6 hours, longest across northern Minnesota.
18z RGEM — Check out this potential temperature contrast for Sunday afternoon! Wow!
Latest on the Sunday snow event — Computer model trends
-Still seeing quite a bit of uncertainty in the computer models with Sunday’s snowfall.
-12z European and NAM from Saturday remain the farthest north with the swath of greatest snowfall (4 to 6 inches) Both of those models keep the heaviest snow north of Duluth on Sunday with totals in Duluth of 1 to possibly 4 inches while the Euro only has ~1 inch of snow.
-12z GFS, ICON, Canadian models along with several of the convection allowing models (CAMS) have the swath of snow a little farther south with greater impacts in the immediate Duluth area (4 to 6 inch snowfall)
-What’s troubling is the computer models haven’t budged whether they show the main snow area north or a little farther south. Most of the time you’d see the models come into agreement with an event that is less than 24 hours away, but that hasn’t happened yet with Sunday’s system. It’s really coming down to the wire!
Link to Road Conditions
Our system for Sunday is over the northwest U.S. today with very strong jet stream winds ranging from 120 to around 160 knots extending from the Pacific northwest through the northern Plains and into the Ohio Valley/northeast U.S. One thing that will change little through Tuesday are the strong winds aloft with southwesterly flow of 120-160 knots across the northern Plains, upper Midwest and Great Lakes thanks in part to a very impressive temperature contrast ranging from around -30 degrees near Hudson Bay Canada to the 70s and 80s across the southern U.S.
Will have clear to partly cloudy skies in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this evening but clouds will be on the increase later in the night. Colder temperatures tonight with lows in the single digits below to around 10 above zero.
First round of snow occurs Sunday with the greatest amounts expected to be over northern Minnesota and along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Could be some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle Sunday afternoon-evening in parts of eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Additional rounds of snow are possible for Monday and Tuesday as an active weather pattern remains in place. Will also have east/northeast winds coming off Lake Superior for Monday into Tuesday morning which could lead to some lake enhanced snow along the North and South Shore of the lake.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph, decreasing to 5 to 15 mph and becoming south toward daybreak.
.Sunday… Snow arriving 6-8 AM with periods of snow through the day. Snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches possible. High 20 to 25. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday… Snow possible with some accumulation. Breezy. High 13 to 18. Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.
Normal temperatures for Sunday
Sunrise Sunday: 7:08 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 5:38 PM CST