/Issued 5:20 PM CST, Sunday, February 18, 2018/
Snow will gradually diminish by late this evening, but until then a few more inches of accumulation is expected in parts of northeast Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin.
Here’s my preliminary snowfall potential map for Monday through Tuesday.
Goes-16 satellite image from Sunday, and the overall setup that was in place for today’s heavy snowfall event that impacted parts of northeast Minnesota.
Check out the temperature contrast that was in place this afternoon
While we’re dealing with snow in our area, locations farther south have the chance for freezing rain through Tuesday, and in some areas the amount of ice accumulation could be significant causing tree and power line damage.
Here’s my total snowfall forecast through this evening, most of this has already fallen except in the 2-4 inch zone where snow continues this evening. Note: Some spots along the North Shore have already picked up over 12 inches of snow today, so those locations could approach 18 inches before the snow tapers off later this evening.
Temperature departure map for the week of February 11, 2018. Another below average week across the Northland.
Precipitation departure map for the week of February 11, 2018. Below average precipitation across the Northland.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
February 11-17, 2018
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
2/11: 16 F/-7 degrees below normal
2/12: 8 F/-15 degrees below normal
2/13: 27 F/+4 degrees above normal
2/14: 42 F/+18 degrees above normal
2/15: 35 F/+11 degrees above normal
2/16: 19 F/-5 degrees below normal
2/17: 29 F/+4 degrees above normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
2/11: -5 F/-10 degrees below normal
2/12: -10 F/-15 degrees below normal
2/13: 1 F/-4 degrees below normal
2/14: 17 F/+11 degrees above normal
2/15: 6 F/Normal
2/16: -8 F/-14 degrees below normal
2/17: 8 F/+1 degree above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of February 11, 2018: 13.2 degrees (-1.5 degrees below normal) Source: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 0.04 inches
Normal: 0.19 inches
Departure: -0.15 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of February 11, 2018
Temperature: 12.0 degrees
Departure: -4.0 degrees below normal
Total Precipitation: 0.01 inches
Departure: -0.15 inches below normal
Link to Road Conditions
Snowfall reports for Sunday, February 18, 2018
Lutsen, MN: 13.0 inches
4 NNE Marcell, MN: 11.5 inches
2 WSW Lutsen, MN: 10.3 inches
Cass Lake, MN: 10.0 inches
Marcell, MN: 10.0 inches
Ely, MN: 9.0 inches (Per Facebook spotter report)
4 W Grand Marais, MN: 8.4 inches
3 NE Tofte, MN: 8.0 inches
Mckinley, MN: 8.0 inches
4 WSW Sawbill Landing, MN: 7.0 inches
Bigfork, MN: 7.0 inches
Grand Marais, MN: 6.1 inches
1 NW Two Harbors, MN: 6.0 inches
2 SW Two Harbors, MN: 4.1 inches
Kelly Lake, MN: 3.0 inches
Duluth Airport: 2.4 inches (Through 5 PM)
Euro and NAM nailed the area where the heaviest snow fell today with their more northerly track while the GFS and Canadian models were a bust as they had the heavy snow area too far south.
Today’s corridor of heavy snow was maybe only 50 miles north/south. If you were underneath this band, snow rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour occurred for several hours today, but just south of here snowfall tapered off dramatically with only around an inch or so of new snow today in the Duluth area.
…An active weather pattern continues into Tuesday…
Southwest flow aloft will remain in place with a ridge over the southeast U.S. and a trough over the Rockies. Embedded pieces of energy will track northeast out of the Rockies through Tuesday, and as those move through it will enhance the lift which will lead to occasional snow across the Northland through Tuesday. Will have some breaks in between the waves of snow, with one of those breaks coming tonight as our current snowfall tapers off from west to east, although the snow will linger longest in northeast/far eastern Minnesota and northern portions of Wisconsin. Snow should ramp up again Monday mainly affecting eastern Minnesota/northwest Wisconsin. Another round of snow could affect most of the Northland Monday night and Tuesday.
Note: The potential is there for another 2 to 6 inches of snow from Monday through Tuesday, but locally higher amounts are possible. One area that may see higher totals would be near Lake Superior as east to northeast winds develop Monday with winds remaining out of the east to northeast through Tuesday morning. It looks cold enough for lake effect, and there is enough open water over Lake Superior for lake effect snow. It’s just a matter of when does the lake effect develop, and once or if it does where exactly will it setup.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Snow ending before midnight. Total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Breezy early with areas of blowing snow. Mostly cloudy with partial clearing possible late. Low 8 to 13. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, wind becoming north and decreasing to 10 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Occasional snow. High 14 to 19. Wind north at 10 to 15 mph becoming east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday… Occasional snow. Note: Snowfall potential from Monday through Tuesday of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts. High 14 to 19. Wind northeast becoming north at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for Monday
Sunrise Monday: 7:06 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 5:40 PM CST