/Issued 5:23 PM CST, Wednesday, February 21, 2018/
Here’s my snowfall map for Thursday night.
This will be a warmer system compared to our last one with snowfall ratios likely to be in the 10:1 to around 15:1 range, also with the milder temperatures, lake enhanced snowfall potential is a little lower, but winds will be out of the east Thursday night so this could still lead to some lake enhanced snow along the North Shore which is why I have that area outlined in 6 inch plus snowfall potential.
Note: Our next winter weather event arrives Thursday afternoon or evening and continues through Friday morning. Winter weather headlines map below.
For Duluth and Superior: *Winter Storm Watch* from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon.
18z 3km NAM Simulated Precipitation Type Radar starting Thursday afternoon (Noon) ending Friday afternoon (Noon)
Note: Timing of when the snow begins may change a bit by tomorrow morning, but right now it looks like the snow will arrive in the Twin Ports between 5-8 PM Thursday with snow all of Thursday night, looks like the snow will come to an end Friday morning, between 8-10 AM.
18z GFS model — 500mb forecast valid for late Saturday night/early Sunday morning.
Have had very few negative tilted troughs impact the upper Midwest this winter, but this could change this weekend, will just have to wait and see how much phasing can occur. Potential is there for a rather deep surface low to track northeast out of the central Plains this weekend with a sub 990mb low possible by Sunday over the central/eastern Great Lakes.
True-Color satellite image from February 21, 2018.
12z Euro Ensemble model — 500mb height anomaly analysis from Wednesday morning, February 21, 2018.
Incredible temperature contrast continues today, check out Texas! 80s to near 90 degrees in south Texas, 20s with wintry precipitation over north Texas today! Widespread 70s to near 80 degree temperatures over the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. today.
A nice break from the snowy stretch we’ve been in the past few days. Lots of sun across our area today but it was a little chilly with highs ranging from around 20 to the mid 20s. Surface map late this afternoon had high pressure of 1038mb over Iowa with a pattern consisting of a western trough and a massive east coast ridge. Powerful upper level winds >150 knots covered the upper Midwest, upper Great Lakes and eastern Canada today between summer like warmth out east and arctic air to the north/west.
It’ll be another cold night tonight with high pressure remaining over the upper Midwest. Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected with overnight lows similar to this morning’s lows with temperatures in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero over most of the Northland.
Clouds will increase during the day Thursday as our next snow maker approaches from the southwest. Southerly flow on the backside of a departing high will transport moisture northward into the upper Midwest while a surface low and lift approaches from the southwest.
Will see snow spread into southern sections of the Northland mid to late Thursday afternoon with snow lifting farther north/east for Thursday night. Bursts of moderate to heavy snowfall with hourly rates approaching an inch are possible over parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Thursday night/early Friday morning. In addition to the snow there could be some freezing drizzle Thursday night-Friday morning especially in parts of northwest Wisconsin.
Note: It’s still a little ways out, and the storm track and strength of this weekend’s storm could change but computer models have been trending toward a stronger low for this weekend, and if this system comes far enough north like what most computer models show it doing today, then much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin can expect another round of snow Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning with snowfall potential of more than 4 inches.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
Event: *Winter Storm Watch*
Timing: Thursday evening through Friday afternoon
.Tonight… Clear to partly cloudy. Low 0 to 5 below. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Increasing cloudiness. High 23 to 26. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday night… Snow developing between 5-8 PM with snow overnight. Low 20 to 23. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Snow ending during the morning. Total snowfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 33. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for Thursday
Sunrise Thursday: 7:01 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 5:44 PM CST