/Issued 4:22 PM CST, Thursday, February 22, 2018/
Here’s my snowfall map for tonight’s event
-Most of northeast Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin should end up in the 3 to 6 inch range although I have some concerns with how long the heavier snow will last, if it doesn’t last too long, then I could see snow totals on the low end of that range, closer to 3 or 4 inches.
-Lesser amounts of snow for the northwest section, generally 2 to 3 inches with about 1 or 2 inches near the International Falls area.
-Some potential for lake enhanced snow along the North Shore tonight with easterly winds, so a few spots could get up to 7 inches of snow.
Winter Weather Headlines map for tonight.
Radar loop ending at 4:15 PM CST, Thursday, February 22, 2018.
Snow (Blue colors on map) lifting N/NE out of southern Minnesota. Snow should arrive in the Twin Ports between 6-9 PM this evening.
Evolution of tonight’s snow system.
18z NAM 3km Simulated Radar forecast beginning at 5 PM this evening, ending at 12 PM Friday.
2017-2018 Snowfall Stats for Duluth, Minnesota
Winter Total so far (Dec 1 – Feb 21)
Meteorological winter is the period from Dec 1 through Feb 28
34.6 inches (-11.3 inches below normal)
Annual Total so far (Through Feb 21)
56.2 inches (-5.8 inches below normal)
Note: Average winter snowfall at Duluth, Minnesota is 49.5 inches, and the annual average snowfall is 86.1 inches. Two decent chances for snow tonight and again Saturday night so will be adding to our winter and annual totals through the weekend.
38 days with a below zero low temperature so far this winter at Duluth, Minnesota. Average is 34 days. Last winter had 22 days with a below zero low temperature. Looking at the temperature trend through the rest of this winter (Through February 28) I don’t think will drop below zero anymore for the rest of this month, so our winter total will finish slightly above the average, and will have had 16 more days with a below zero low temperature this winter compared to last winter.
Most of the Northland had subzero temperatures once again this morning but sunshine to start the day combined with weak southerly flow on the backside of high pressure now off to our east helped to warm temperatures into the 20s with a few locations reaching 30 degrees this afternoon. Clouds have been increasing from south-north in our area this afternoon ahead of our next snow maker which arrives tonight.
The upper levels remain virtually unchanged from previous days — Still under a southwest flow aloft over the upper Midwest with a ridge across the southeast U.S. and an upper level trough covering the northwest U.S./northern Rockies.
There isn’t much of a surface reflection for tonight’s system with generally a broad and rather weak surface low across the Plains, this low will reach west central Wisconsin by daybreak Friday. Although the surface low is sorta weak, there will be a decent amount of lift as the low approaches later tonight, and moisture will also increase ahead of the low with southerly winds drawing higher PWATS of 0.40″ to 0.50″ into the Northland.
Snow will spread generally from south to north across the area through Midnight with snow after Midnight through 7-8 AM Friday, snow is then expected to taper off from SW-NE after 8 AM Friday. There could also be some freezing drizzle Friday morning especially in northwest Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota.
Impacts from tonight’s winter weather event for northeast Minn and northwest WI
•Reduced visibilities, possibly down to a quarter or half mile at times under the most intense snow bands later in the night.
•Expect a slow Friday morning commute with snow covered and slippery road conditions.
•Not much wind with this event, although easterly winds near Lake Superior could increase to around 20 mph later tonight, so some patchy blowing snow could develop overnight near Lake Superior.
•A risk for some freezing drizzle especially Friday morning for northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota with a light glaze of ice possible on top of the snow.
Temperatures won’t fall much tonight with lows generally in the teens and 20s, highs Friday will be in the 20s to lower 30s, yes some of us should climb to near or even a degree or two above freezing Friday afternoon!
Link to Road Conditions
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
Event: *Winter Weather Advisory*
Timing: 9 PM this evening to Noon CST Friday
.Tonight… Snow developing between 6-9 PM. Snow overnight. Low 18 to 23. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Patchy blowing snow possible late.
.Friday… Snow tapering off between 8-10 AM. Total snowfall accumulation of 3 to 6 inches. Patchy freezing drizzle possible during the morning. Mostly cloudy with some afternoon sun. High 30 to 34. Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Saturday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 22 to 27. Wind becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.
Normal temperatures for Friday
Sunrise Friday: 6:59 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 5:46 PM CST