/Issued 4:24 PM CST, Sunday, March 4, 2018/
Here’s the 850mb and 500mb forecast valid for Tuesday morning, March 6, 2018 per 12z Euro model from Sunday. Yeah good luck with that.
If you have travel plans the next few days be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times along with rapidly changing road conditions due to snow, blowing snow and mixed precipitation types.
Here’s what I’m going with for snow totals as of Sunday afternoon — I may need to adjust the totals a bit during the next 12 hours or so.
12z Euro Ensemble model from 3.4.2018 — 500mb Height forecast for Monday morning through Wednesday morning, March 5-7, 2018. Why are the computer models struggling with this storm? The overall pattern is quite amplified/blocked up with a few features in play that can change the track of a storm system. I’m probably missing a few items, but one that stands out is the ridge just to our north/east while an upper low drops southwest out of Hudson Bay, meanwhile you have the large surface/upper low moving east out of the northern Plains on Monday, and as that system moves east it bumps into the ridge which will then force the system toward the south/east, where that shift to the SE takes place is difficult for a computer model to get a handle on as it sorta comes down to the placement of the aforementioned ridge as well as how quickly the upper low near Hudson Bay approaches from the northeast — By midweek everything absorbs into one main upper low/trough over the Great Lakes.
18z NAM 500mb vort forecast through late Wednesday night. Interesting stuff!
Radar loop ending at 4:15 PM CST, Sunday, March 4, 2018.
Scattered thunderstorms are lifting north impacting parts of North Dakota and even far southwest Manitoba Province late this afternoon! All the +/- are lightning strikes from the past hour on this Sunday afternoon.
18z HRDPS 567hdjd88 model; Okay seriously this is the regional Canadian computer model simulated radar forecast through Tuesday morning.
Temperature departure map for the week of February 25, 2018. The entire Northland was warmer than normal last week. Source: https://hprcc.unl.edu
Precipitation departure map for the week of February 25, 2018. Generally below normal precipitation amounts in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin last week, the exception to this was along the North Shore thanks to the lingering snow early last Sunday morning. Source: https://hprcc.unl.edu
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
February 25-March 3, 2018
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
2/25: 28 F/+1 degree above normal
2/26: 43 F/+15 degrees above normal
2/27: 42 F/+14 degrees above normal
2/28: 35 F/+7 degrees above normal
3/1: 40 F/+11 degrees above normal
3/2: 40 F/+11 degrees above normal
3/3: 38 F/+9 degrees above normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
2/25: 19 F/+9 degrees above normal
2/26: 13 F/+3 degrees above normal
2/27: 18 F/+7 degrees above normal
2/28: 18 F/+7 degrees above normal
3/1: 13 F/+2 degrees above normal
3/2: 9 F/-3 degrees below normal
3/3: 26 F/+14 degrees above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of February 25, 2018: 27.3 degrees (+7.6 degrees above normal) Source: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 0.09 inches
Normal: 0.29 inches
Departure: -0.20 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of February 25, 2018
Average Temperature: 23.7 degrees
Departure: +2.2 degrees above normal
Total Precipitation: 0.26 inches
Departure: 0.00 inches
Link to Road Conditions
Wisconsin – https://511wi.gov/map
…Storm Timeline for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin…
•Tonight: Areas of light rain, sleet, snow along with patchy freezing drizzle/freezing rain will continue at times with precipitation moving generally from south to north. Not expecting a lot of heavy precipitation tonight although enough snow or mixed precipitation could lead to some slippery road conditions. A greater threat for heavier precipitation begins overnight in far western/southern portions of the area with snow, sleet or freezing rain expected during that time.
•Monday: The main action zone for snow should be over western-southern portions of the area while it stays dry through the day from the Twin Ports north and also for the South Shore of Lake Superior. Gusty winds out of the east to northeast, strongest gusts near Lake Superior.
•Monday night-Tuesday morning: Snow continues in western-southern areas, and this area of snow will try very hard to shift farther north Monday evening, and it’s during that time when the snow could reach the Duluth area, possibly as far north as Two Harbors, Cotton, and east to the South Shore (Confidence on that happening is still low as of Sunday afternoon)
Note: As for potential snow totals, see my map above.
Locally for Duluth and Superior
•Breezy tonight with easterly winds of 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible. Can’t rule out some light snow, rain or mixed precipitation at times but any snow accumulation should remain less than an inch. Lows around 30 degrees.
•East to northeast wind will increase Monday with wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph developing through the day. Highs around 33 degrees. Mostly cloudy skies but it should stay dry during the day.
•Monday evening through Tuesday morning will still be quite windy with east to northeast winds with gusts of 30 to 45 mph. If snow begins to fall, then we could have some issues from blowing and drifting snow and poor visibility at times due to the wind along with potentially falling/blowing snow.
•Winter Weather Advisory in effect for Monday through Tuesday morning, winter storm warning southwest of the Twin Ports.