/Issued 5:50 PM CST, Saturday, March 3, 2018/
18z NAM model 500mb height anomaly map valid for Monday morning, March 5, 2018.
Note: White dashed line on map could be where the snow stops advancing any farther north thanks to a strong ridge over central Canada which is going to do its best to keep this storm away from Lake Superior including the Duluth-Superior area, but with the wind out of the E/NE, this could eventually lead to some lake effect/enhanced snow in the Twin Ports area and along parts of the North Shore and South Shore of Lake Superior from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. A very complex setup, and extremely difficult forecast ahead.
The map below shows where the heaviest snowfall may setup for Monday outlined by the 3 different areas on map.
Areas 1 and 2: Greatest chance for 6″+ snowfall
Area 3: Least chance for 6″+ snowfall
Doing something a little different with my snowfall maps for this storm.
Image below is my high end range snowfall potential.
And this next image is my low end range snowfall potential.
And finally my forecast for most likely range in snowfall totals. Note: There’s a good chance that I’ll have to adjust these totals more than once during the next 24-36 hours.
Tonight and Sunday: There will be some snow and mixed precipitation developing later tonight with this precipitation expected to continue in some parts of the Northland into Sunday. Not expecting a lot of snow or ice through Sunday, but there could be enough of both to cause hazardous travel conditions. Snowfall amounts through Sunday are forecast to remain around one inch or less with potential for a light glaze of ice accumulation. Patchy fog could also develop at times.
Sunday night through Monday night: Heavier snow is possible especially for western-southern portions of the Northland. Some mixed precipitation could continue as well Sunday night through Monday morning.
Winds: East to northeast through Tuesday — Wind gusts from 20 to 30 mph are expected especially from Sunday night through Monday night. Even stronger winds will occur near Lake Superior with wind gusts of 30 to around 50 mph possible for Monday and Monday night.
Lake Effect Potential: There is some threat for lake effect or lake enhanced snowfall along parts of the North Shore and South Shore including in the Duluth-Superior area especially from Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Temperatures don’t look very cold though with 850mb temps around -4 to -8C which could limit the amount of lake effect snow, although the wind direction looks quite favorable with east to northeast winds coming down the lake, so this will be something to keep an eye on.
*Winter Storm Watch* is in effect for Duluth and Superior from late Sunday night through late Monday night.
More updates ahead