/Issued 5:32 PM CST, Monday, March 5, 2018/
Now is about the time I’m getting the Heebie-jeebies. Radar trends certainly support this area of snow shifting far enough north to affect the Twin Ports by 7-9 PM this evening but I’m banking on the Hudson Bay high/dry air to win out!
Winter Weather Headlines map last updated at 5:30 PM CST, Monday, March 5, 2018.
Here’s the storm track through Thursday morning. Surface low in eastern South Dakota this afternoon will move into north central Iowa Tuesday, then will track to the south of Chicago Tuesday evening, then it will hook northeast, reaching Lake Huron Thursday morning, this hook to the north will occur because of another storm which develops over the southeast U.S. and lifts northeast impacting the northeast U.S. on Thursday. Note: Really is a lot of fascinating stuff going on with this weather pattern right now.
Here’s my updated snowfall map through Tuesday. Note: For some the totals listed on the map are additional amounts on top of what has already fallen as of Monday afternoon.
18z NAM-Nest simulated radar forecast through Tuesday evening.
Note: This model shows the area of snow to our south late this afternoon lifting far enough north to impact the Duluth-Superior area later this evening and through the overnight hours with some lake effect snow showers for Tuesday. Although I can’t rule this scenario out completely, I don’t really agree with it.
A powerful winter storm impacting the northern Plains and upper Midwest today! Here’s a water vapor satellite loop of today’s storm.
And here’s a Goes-16 True Color visible satellite loop from March 5, 2018.
Snowfall Reports for March 5, 2018
Note: These are preliminary totals as snow continues to fall as of late Monday afternoon.
3 ESE Poplar, MN: 9.0 inches
1 N Fort Ripley, MN: 8.6 inches
5 E Leader, MN: 8.0 inches
4 ESE Casino, MN: 6.7 inches
2 W Pine River, MN: 5.0 inches
East Gull Lake, MN: 5.0 inches
Brainerd, MN: 5.0 inches
4 SW Shephard, MN: 4.5 inches
3 NE Brainerd, MN: 3.2 inches
Walker, MN: 3.0 inches
Rock Creek, MN: 2.0 inches
2 SW Hinckley, MN: 2.0 inches
Link to Power Outage maps
Minnesota Power: http://outagemap.mnpower.com/external/default.html
Lake Country Power: http://mi.lcp.coop:82/#viewer-menu-parent
Link to Road Conditions
Outlook for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Tonight: Low pressure of ~1002mb stretched from eastern South Dakota to southwest Minnesota/far northwest Iowa as of 4 PM. This low will move slowly toward the south/east tonight. Snow, heavy at times will continue most of the evening in east central Minnesota into portions of northwest Wisconsin but snowfall intensity should begin to decrease overnight. Areas of blowing and drifting snow will also occur tonight in eastern Minnesota and parts of northwest Wisconsin with whiteout conditions at times. Expect snowfall rates of an inch or two per hour this evening in the snow area that is impacting parts of east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Note: There is still some uncertainty on how far north the snow makes it tonight with the NAM and GFS models pushing the snow far enough north to impact the Twin Ports later tonight while the Euro and other models keep it just to our south, I’m leaning toward the models that keep the snow band just off to our south due to the very strong high to our north which is feeding dry air into our area, and this should result in the snow band stalling out or shifting back south as it runs into this drier air.
The biggest weather story for the Duluth area will continue to be the strong east to northeast wind for tonight through Tuesday morning. Wind gusts from 30 to 55 mph will likely continue through Tuesday morning with wind speeds decreasing Tuesday afternoon. Scattered power outages could continue in parts of the Northland tonight due to the high wind.
Lake Effect Snow Potential: Although winds are lined up nicely for lake effect snow through Tuesday (ENE direction) there’s too much dry air, plus we just don’t have enough of a temperature contrast between the lake and 850mb to get lake effect snow to develop. Temperatures do turn colder late tonight and Tuesday, so it’s possible that we could see a few areas of lake effect snow develop while affecting parts of the North Shore and South Shore of Lake Superior, but I don’t think will get much accumulation if any lake effect snow develops.