/Issued 4:33 PM CDT, Sunday, March 18, 2018/
12z Euro Ensemble run from March 18, 2018 — Greater than 3 inch snowfall probability forecast valid through March 31, 2018. Pretty good odds for 3 inches or more of snow over most of the Northland by the end of this month.
Been a while since we’ve seen this much cloud cover in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
12z GEFS model run from March 18, 2018.
Temperature departure map for the week of March 11, 2018. A mix of above normal to below normal temperatures across the Northland last week.
Precipitation departure map for the week of March 11, 2018. Another very dry week for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
March 11-17, 2018
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
3/11: 35F/+3 degrees above normal
3/12: 37F/+4 degrees above normal
3/13: 34F/+1 degree above normal
3/14: 44F/+11 degrees above normal
3/15: 33F/-1 degree below normal
3/16: 41F/+7 degrees above normal
3/17: 48F/+13 degrees above normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
3/11: 25F/+9 degrees above normal
3/12: 19F/+3 degrees above normal
3/13: 15F/-1 degree below normal
3/14: 21F/+4 degrees above normal
3/15: 15F/-2 degrees below normal
3/16: 7F/-11 degrees below normal
3/17: 11F/-7 degrees below normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of March 11: 27.5 degrees (+2.4 degrees above normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 0.01 inches
Normal: 0.32 inches
Departure: -0.31 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of March 11
Average Temperature: 26.7 degrees
Departure: -1.2 degrees below normal
Total Precipitation: 0.04 inches
Departure: +0.27 inches above normal
•A dry stretch continues in the Twin Ports. The period from February 26 through March 17 has had just 0.02 inches of precipitation. Normal amount is 0.88 inches.
•The last 0.10″ or greater precipitation event at Duluth, Minnesota occurred over 3 weeks ago on February 24 (0.40″)
Temperatures although cooler compared to Saturday were still about 4 to 8 degrees above average today with highs ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s but changes are occurring near Lake Superior as northeast winds increase this afternoon which is ushering in a colder airmass as evidence by 3 PM temperatures which have fallen to around 30 degrees from Silver to Grand Marais with 20s over northern portions of Lake Superior.
Upper level analysis from Sunday afternoon had an upper level trough over the western U.S. with west or a west-northwest 500mb flow to the east of this upper trough across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. 850mb temperatures range from around -2C in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin to -12C just north of Lake Superior.
Through Tuesday: Low pressure over the southern Rockies this afternoon will move east through the southern portions of the U.S. while a surface trough extends north of that low into the northern Plains and western Minnesota before the trough dissipates on Tuesday. Snow or a mixture of precipitation is most likely to occur in west central and southwest Minnesota for Monday and Tuesday with the north fringes of this precipitation shield possibly affecting western-southern areas of the Northland by Monday night through Tuesday but any precipitation that occurs this far north should remain on the light side with minimal snow accumulation expected.
The surface low well to our south combined with strong high pressure to our north will cause a prolonged period of easterly winds near Lake Superior with wind gusts of 20 to around 30 mph expected at times through Monday night. With temperatures aloft trending colder, this could lead to some lake effect snow showers and flurries developing at times along the North Shore and South Shore of Lake Superior through Tuesday but snowfall amounts should remain on the light side ranging from a dusting to possibly 2 inches in a few locations.
Note: Most of the Northland has been in a very dry weather pattern since the last few days of February, this has been due in part to a persistent ridge/high pressure which has set up to our north across Ontario Province and Hudson Bay which has forced storm systems and its snow and rain to fall west and south of our area. This pattern could start to break down just a bit by next weekend which would allow storm systems and snow/rain to shift farther north to impact parts of the Northland, of course this is not set in stone as these ridges can be tough to break down once they become established. The period of interest for perhaps significant snow/rain totals runs from around March 23-28.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 21 to 25. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
.Monday… Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 25 to 28. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 25 to 28. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for Monday
Sunrise Monday: 7:14 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 7:20 PM CDT