/Issued 6:11 PM CDT, Friday, March 23, 2018/
18z RGEM model
Winter weather headlines map. These headlines are in effect through Saturday morning.
Here’s my updated snowfall map for tonight’s storm — The Hudson Bay high is so strong that its forcing tonight’s system a little farther west/south. The heaviest snow amounts should remain over portions of far western through southwestern Minnesota, little to no snow for Brainerd, St. Cloud, Twin Cities and Rochester.
Radar loop through 6 PM CDT Friday, March 23, 2018.
21z HRRR model run. Simulated radar forecast through 10 AM Saturday.
Reds: Mixed precipitation
Goes-16 True Color visible satellite loop from Friday, March 23, 2018. The strong northeast wind over Lake Superior today is helping to push the ice farther west, toward western Lake Superior (Watch the loop closely) ~58% of Lake Superior is covered by ice as of March 23, this is above the average which is ~30% for late March.
GEFS model 12z run from March 23, 2018.
Temperature anomaly forecast through April 8, 2018.
Blue/Purple colors=Colder than average temperatures
Orange/Red colors=Warmer than average temperatures
Overall weather pattern favors below average temperatures for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through early April. No signs of sustained warmth through the next 2 weeks at least.
European computer model 12z run from March 23, 2018.
This is still a ways out, and yes it could change during the next few days, but today’s Euro model shows quite a dump of arctic air to close out March into the early portion of April. Note: Purple colors on this map are never a good thing unless you like very cold temperatures. The only good thing is that this will be a late season brand of arctic air (assuming it does impact us) meaning it won’t be quite as bitter as it would be say in January or February, thanks to the stronger sun and longer days we have now versus a month ago, but either way, it looks chilly for Easter weekend!
Link to road conditions
>1040mb high is sitting over northern Ontario Province today while a surface low of ~998mb was over western Kansas. A tight pressure gradient exists today between the high and low, and this has resulted in strong northeast winds near Lake Superior today with wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Skies across the Northland were mostly sunny to partly sunny today with highs ranging from the lower 30s near Lake Superior to the mid 30s to around 40 degrees elsewhere.
Low pressure over the central Plains this afternoon will reach the southeast U.S. by Sunday morning as strong high pressure moves from the south shores of Hudson Bay to Quebec Province by Sunday. The high to our north will continue to feed very dry air into the Northland resulting in no snow along with partly to mostly cloudy skies through Sunday morning.
Lows tonight will range from the single digits in far northeast Minnesota to the teens and 20s elsewhere. Highs Saturday will be in the 20s near Lake Superior and in the 30s elsewhere. Highs for Sunday will be in the 30s to lower 40s.
Chances for snow or mixed precipitation will increase across our area on Monday and those precipitation chances will linger into Tuesday morning. Will get rid of the Hudson Bay high influence as will find ourselves in a southwest mid to upper level flow for the early week time frame, this should allow deeper moisture to finally penetrate north into our area, and as low pressure approaches from the west/south, the forcing associated with that low combined with the moisture returning from the south should go on to produce some precipitation in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Monday. Temperatures near the surface and aloft are cold enough per today’s model data for the precipitation to fall as either snow or sleet, however these temperatures could trend a little warmer the next few days, and if that does happen, then we could also see some rain to go with the snow and sleet. This doesn’t look like a major storm for our area, but there could be enough snow or sleet to produce hazardous road conditions especially Monday night and possibly carrying over into Tuesday morning the way it looks now.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Windy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph.
.Saturday… Windy. Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 25 to 30. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible.
.Sunday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 33 to 38. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.
Normal temperatures for Saturday
Sunrise Saturday: 7:04 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 7:27 PM CDT