/Issued 4:51 PM CDT, Sunday, March 25, 2018/
Here’s my snowfall accumulation map for Monday through Monday night. More info below.
18z RAP model run from Sunday, March 25, 2018.
18z NAM-Nest model – Simulated radar forecast through 7 AM Tuesday.
Euro Ensemble 12z run from Sunday, March 25, 2018 — Temperature Anomaly Forecast for Sunday, April 1, 2018.
Temperature departure map for the week of March 18, 2018. Most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin had below normal temperatures last week, the exception to this was in parts of north central Minnesota with near to above average temperatures (Yellow and orange areas on map)
Precipitation departure map for the week of March 18, 2018. Another bone dry week across the Northland mostly due to the persistent blocking pattern from the Hudson Bay high.
A cool satellite image from Sunday morning showing the narrow snow pack left behind after Saturday’s winter storm.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
March 18-24, 2018
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
3/18: 38F/+3 degrees above normal
3/19: 28F/-7 degrees below normal
3/20: 27F/-9 degrees below normal
3/21: 30F/-6 degrees below normal
3/22: 40F/+3 degrees above normal
3/23: 34F/-3 degrees below normal
3/24: 31F/-7 degrees below normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
3/18: 19F/+1 degree above normal
3/19: 23F/+4 degrees above normal
3/20: 20F/+1 degree above normal
3/21: 15F/-5 degrees below normal
3/22: 15F/-5 degrees below normal
3/23: 13F/-7 degrees below normal
3/24: 22F/+1 degree above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of March 18: 25.4 degrees (-2.5 degrees below normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: Trace
Normal: 0.36 inches
Departure: -0.36 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of March 18
Average Temperature: 31.1 degrees
Departure: Normal (0.0 degrees)
Total Precipitation: 0.17 inches
Departure: -0.21 inches below normal
Link to Road Conditions
Wisconsin – https://511wi.gov/map
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
-Total precipitation from February 25 through March 24: 0.11 inches. Normal for that time period is 1.28 inches.
-March 11, the last time we had at least 0.1 inches of snow.
-February 25, the last we had 1.0 inch or greater snowfall.
Note: March 2018 has been the driest on record through the 24th with just 0.02 inches of precipitation. Records go back to 1871. We will get some precipitation this final week of March, but how much will we get? Will just have to wait and see. Will need 0.43 inches of additional precip this week to avoid a top 10 driest March.
Note: Only 0.4 inches of snow so far this month. If March ended today, this would be the 2nd least snowiest March on record. March 2010 had even less snow with only a trace for the entire month! Will get some snow this week so will see where March 2018 ranks a week from today.
Note: It’s looking increasingly likely that the Duluth Airport will not reach 50 degrees at least one time this month. Assuming this is the case, then March 2018 will be the first March since 2011 without at least one day at or above 50F. By the way March averages 3 days with a temperature of 50 degrees or warmer, and last March had 5 days with a temperature of 50F or warmer. Could Lake Superior ice coverage be playing a role? There’s a big difference in ice coverage this March vs. last March. ~63% ice concentration as of March 25, 2018 compared to ~5% ice concentration late March of 2017.
After about a month of no significant precipitation events over most of the Northland will finally break out of this dry pattern, at least temporarily.
Upper level ridging has shifted east of the upper Midwest today while an upper level trough moves into the Rockies per RAP model analysis. Mid to upper level winds have become southwesterly behind the ridge and ahead of the trough.
Deeper moisture although still well west/south of our local area this afternoon will gradually push farther north/east into the Northland through Monday. Sunday afternoon PWATS ranged from ~0.25 inches in most of northeast Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin to 0.60 inches in eastern South Dakota, and its that moisture back in South Dakota which will gradually build into our area through the next 24 hours.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies were found in our area today with high temperatures ranging from the mid 30s to low 40s which is near to a little below average for late March. Not quite as windy near Lake Superior today compared to previous days, but still dealing with easterly wind gusts up to around 20-25 mph which continues to make it feel even chillier than what the actual temperature is.
…Breaking down Monday’s wintry mess…
•First thing to point out is that this shouldn’t be a major snow event for our area, but since it’s the first snowfall that many of us have seen in about a month, it could come as a little bit of a shock, but then again snow in late March is nothing new around here.
•Although the sun won’t be shining on Monday, it will still have an impacts since we now have a higher sun angle, its also warmer vs. a month ago. The snow could have some difficulty sticking to roads especially during the day Monday, but the morning hours and again during the evening hours could be a different story. Of course, if the snow falls heavy enough during the day, then the higher sun angle won’t matter much, as the snow would still be able to accumulate on road surfaces.
•Temperatures as is often the case with these late season events will be borderline to support snow. Surface temps on Monday are forecast to range from around 30 to 40 degrees, warmest temperatures in northwest Wisconsin where more of a snow and rain mix is expected. Temperatures aloft are forecast to remain cold enough to support frozen precipitation through the event, so it will come down to the surface temps as to what type of precipitation we end up seeing.
•There is a chance that most of the snow or mixed precipitation Monday morning through the afternoon sets up/falls mainly west/north of Duluth, then later Monday afternoon through Monday evening snow and mixed precipitation could increase in coverage farther east including in the Twin Ports, far eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.
•The other scenario would be for some snow in the Twin Ports Monday morning, followed by a break for the afternoon, then another round of snow for Monday evening.
•Snowfall totals: I’m thinking most of northeast Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin will end up with between 1 and 4 inches of snow by Monday night but there remains a possibility for a narrow corridor of 4 to possibly 6 inches of snow from near the Brainerd Lakes, northeast toward Hibbing. This will be a wet/slushy snow with ratios likely to range from around 5:1 to 9:1.
•Some melting of the snow could occur due to the warmer ground temperatures, although this month really hasn’t been all that warm, but still warm enough where it could cut down on snow totals just a bit.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Low 28 to 31. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday… Periods of snow or mixed precipitation. Daytime snow accumulation around an inch or less. High 32 to 35. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday night… Snow or mixed precipitation during the evening followed by flurries or patchy freezing drizzle after midnight. Additional snowfall of 1 to 3 inches possible during the evening. Low 29 to 32. Wind northeast at 10 to 15 mph becoming west after midnight.
Normal temperatures for Monday
Sunrise Monday: 7:00 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 7:30 PM CDT