Dangerous fire weather conditions continue early this evening in parts of the Northland. Scattered showers and isolated t-storms Monday morning (Highs 60s and 70s, cooler near Lake Superior) Below average temps for next weekend May 5-6

/Issued 4:12 PM CDT, Sunday, April 29, 2018/

Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov

12z NSSL model

An increasingly humid airmass with 850mb dew points of +5 to +10C well to our southwest this evening will start to push northeast later tonight thanks to a strong southwesterly low level jet which will help advect deeper moisture northeast into the Northland — Often times when this type of setup occurs will get some showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop on the nose of the deeper moisture.

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM Nest model simulated radar forecast from 1 AM tonight to 11 AM Monday

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Extreme fire danger (red) and very high fire danger through this evening in all of Minnesota while most of Wisconsin is also in high or very high fire danger except in far western areas of the state where fire danger is rated as extreme per Wisconsin DNR.

Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z Euro Ensemble model from April 29, 2018

Source:  https://hprcc.unl.edu

Temperature departure map for the week of April 22, 2018 — Last week had a few mild days, but a couple of well below average days in either high and or low temps resulted in the entire week finishing below average across all of the Northland.

Source:  https://hprcc.unl.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of April 22, 2018 — Below average precipitation in all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

April 22-28, 2018

High Temperatures/Departure from Average

4/22:  61 F/+8 degrees above average
4/23:  68 F/+15 degrees above average
4/24:  56 F/+2 degrees above average
4/25:  58 F/+4 degrees above average
4/26:  57 F/+2 degrees above average
4/27:  40 F/-15 degrees below average
4/28:  46 F/-10 degrees below average

Low Temperatures/Departure from Average

4/22:  30 F/-3 degrees below average
4/23:  39 F/+6 degrees above average
4/24:  32 F/-2 degrees below average
4/25:  26 F/-8 degrees below average
4/26:  33 F/-1 degree below average
4/27:  33 F/-2 degrees below average
4/28:  26 F/-9 degrees below average

Note:  Average temperature for the week of April 22:  43.2 degrees (-0.9 degrees below average)  Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total Precipitation:  0.12 inches
Average:  0.65 inches
Departure:  -0.53 inches below average

State Average for Minnesota for the week of April 22, 2018
Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  46.1 degrees
Departure:  -2.3 degrees below average

Precipitation:  0.03 inches
Departure:  -0.64 inches below average

Weather Synopsis

Moisture and some instability pushes northeast into our area through Tuesday.

Still a very dry airmass over the Northland today with 3 PM dew points only in the teens and 20s with PWATS ranging from 0.20 inches in far northeast Minnesota to 0.40 inches roughly along and west of a line from International Falls to Brainerd — Deeper moisture with PWATS of 0.80 to 1.00 inch with dew points in the mid to upper 40s were well southwest of our area as of mid afternoon Sunday, but this moisture will gradually push farther to the northeast by Monday morning.

Unfortunately with the mild temps, gusty south winds and very dry air, fire weather concerns will be with us through the evening hours with critical and elevated fire weather conditions in place over much of Minnesota and far western Wisconsin.

High temperatures today were in the 60s with much cooler temperatures in the 40s near Lake Superior where an onshore breeze continued today.

Clear skies will continue this evening as an upper level ridge remains over the upper Midwest, this ridge will begin to shift off to the east during the night which will lead to more clouds and a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.  Lows tonight will be in the 40s to lower 50s with 30s near Lake Superior.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies for Monday.  Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms during the morning should diminish by Noon.  Mild temperatures continue Monday along with a slightly more humid airmass which is something we haven’t had to deal with yet this spring — But dew points Monday afternoon won’t be overly high, only in the mid 40s to possibly low-mid 50s.  Highs on Monday will be in the 60s and 70s with cooler temperatures again near Lake Superior (especially along the North Shore)

A few showers and thunderstorms could return Monday night and Tuesday as a cold front and area of low pressure pass through the upper Midwest, while the activity for late tonight-Monday morning is caused by a warm front lifting northeast with a warm/moist advection pattern developing overnight.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Clear this evening followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight.  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing after 3 AM.  Low 40 to 45 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday…  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during the morning otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.  High 67 to 72 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Morning showers possible.  High 60 to 65.  Wind southwest becoming west at 10 to 20 mph.

Average temperatures for Monday

High:  57
Low:   37

Sunrise Monday:  5:55 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:18 PM CDT

Tim

Fire Weather Watch in effect Sunday afternoon/evening; Breezy south winds, highs in the 60s Sunday (Cooler North Shore) Lots of sun! Scattered showers/t-storms late Sunday night-Mon AM

/Issued 6:43 PM CDT, Saturday, April 28, 2018/

Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov

Fire Weather Outlook for Sunday — Elevated Risk covers western-southern portions of the Northland.

Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

…Critical Fire Weather Conditions are possible Sunday afternoon…

Fire Weather Watch in effect for Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for north central and east central Minnesota, parts of northeast Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin.

•Strong Gusty Southerly Winds
•Low Relative Humidity

•Winds:  South 10 to 20 mph with gusts 30 to 35 mph
•Relative Humidity:  Around 15 percent
•Temperatures:  Low to mid 60s

***Any fires which develop may spread quickly through dry vegetation and quickly grow out of control***

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM Nest Simulated Radar Forecast valid from 11 PM Sunday night to 10 AM Monday morning.  Deeper moisture advecting northeast into our area late Sunday night could set off some showers and isolated thunderstorms late Sunday night over parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Brief downpours and a few lightning strikes would be the main hazards out of this activity.

The first marginal severe weather risk this spring in the Northland for Monday night for the Brainerd Lakes area — Other non-severe thunderstorms are possible over other parts of the Northland early Monday morning, and again Monday night.

Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

Larger view of Monday’s Severe Weather Forecast

Source:  https://lab.weathermodels.com

Weather Synopsis

A nicer looking day compared to Friday but temperatures remained on the cool side with highs in the 40s near Lake Superior to the low-mid 50s elsewhere.  Sunshine was abundant throughout the area today.

Clear and cool tonight as high pressure remains near our area.  Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with teens possible in the typical cold spots.  Winds will be on the light side.

Milder southerly flow locks in on Sunday as high pressure makes its way toward the Ohio Valley.  A dry day is in store with widespread sunshine.  Highs will be in the 60s with a few western locales approaching 70 degrees! It’ll be cooler mainly along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Expect southerly breezes to increase by the afternoon with wind gusts 15 to possibly 30 mph.

Moisture advection increases for Sunday night thanks to a southwesterly low level jet >30 knots.  PWATS in Duluth are forecast to increase from 0.30 inches Sunday evening to around 1.00 inch by Monday morning — This increase in moisture coupled with some elevated instability building northeast into the upper Midwest could cause some showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop late Sunday night into Monday morning.  This activity should diminish before Noon Monday and this will set the stage for a very mild Monday afternoon.  850mb temperatures are forecast to rise to between +10 and +15C while 925mb temperatures range from +10 to +20C! By far the warmest airmass we’ve had so far this spring.  As long as skies clear out enough, then we should have temperatures in the 70s come Monday afternoon with the cool spot being the North Shore of Lake Superior, if clouds stick around longer, then highs on Monday would hold in the 60s to around 70 degrees.  Note:  Fire weather concerns should be somewhat less for Monday as long as we get some showers Sunday night followed by an increase in low level moisture on Monday with dew points forecasted to range from 45 to 55 degrees.

Our next shot for scattered showers and thunderstorms comes Monday night-Tuesday as low pressure and a cold front move through the area. 

Notes:

Hibbing, Minnesota had their 3rd coldest low on record for April 28 with a low temperature Saturday morning of 21 degrees.  The record low for April 28 is 19 degrees set in 1956.  In addition, Hibbing had their 5th coldest high temperature on record for April 27 with a high on Friday of 38 degrees.  The record coldest high for April 27 is 27 degrees which was set just last year in 2017.

International Falls, Minnesota had their 5th coldest low on record for April 28 with a low temperature Saturday morning of 22 degrees.  The record low for April 28 is 9 degrees set in 1958.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Clear.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph becoming south toward daybreak.

.Sunday…  Breezy.  Sunny.  Milder.  High 60 to 65.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph during the afternoon.  Lake breeze and cooler temperatures possible closer to Lake Superior.

.Monday…  Mild.  Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms possible early in the morning otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.  High 67 to 72.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.  Lake breeze and cooler temperatures possible closer to Lake Superior.

Average temperatures for Sunday

High:  56
Low:   36

Sunrise Sunday:  5:57 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   8:16 PM CDT

Tim

Winter strikes back (for one day) Coating to nearly 5 inches of snow today in parts of northeast Minnesota. Sun returns Saturday, highs 40s and 50s. Thunder potential late Sunday night!

/Issued 5:49 PM CDT, Friday, April 27, 2018/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Friday, April 27, 2018.  Quite an impressive system dropping south/southeast through the western Great Lakes today.

Source:  https://lab.weathermodels.com

Chilly April continues over a large portion of the U.S., despite the recent warmer temperatures.  Still seeing widespread temperature departures of 5 to 10 degrees colder than average for the month.

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European model from April 27, 2018

Snowfall Reports for Friday, April 27, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

4 E Island Lake, MN:  4.6 inches
6 SE Wales, MN:  4.5 inches
11 NW Palmers, MN:  4.5 inches
6 W Castle Danger, MN:  3.9 inches
5 NW Two Harbors, MN:  3.7 inches
1 NW Two Harbors, MN:  3.0 inches
Mckinley, MN:  2.0 inches
Two Harbors, MN:  1.5 inches
Duluth Airport:  0.2 inches

Weather Synopsis

After a stretch of real nice weather around here, today’s weather took a step back to winter thanks to a potent area of low pressure which moved S/SE through the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes, cold temperatures with accumulating snow affected portions of northeast Minnesota today with rain or a mix of rain and snow affecting other areas of northeast Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin.  Farther west, not much precipitation today with just a few showers this afternoon.  Highs today were only in the 30s near Lake Superior with 40s farther west/south.  Gusty northeast winds also occurred today near Lake Superior which made it feel even cooler!

Lingering snow and rain showers this evening near Lake Superior otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies on the way for tonight with patchy fog possible in areas that had accumulating snow today.  Lows tonight will be in the 20s with teens and maybe even a few single digits in spots up north.

Should have quite a bit more sun Saturday compared to what we had today but temperatures won’t be all that warm with highs in the 40s and 50s, coolest temps found near Lake Superior, warmest temps for western areas (International Falls, Brainerd, Aitkin)

High pressure will be in control of our weather through Sunday.  The high will shift to the south/east by Sunday which will cause a southerly flow to develop across the upper Midwest which ushers in a warmer and eventually a more humid airmass — Fire weather could become an issue for parts of the Northland on Sunday since humidity values will still be on the low side.

Highs on Sunday are forecast to be in the 60s to lower 70s with cooler temperatures especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

A few showers or thunderstorms are possible in parts of the Northland late Sunday night/Monday morning as a warm/moist advection pattern spreads into our area.  30-40+ knot SW low level jet will be in place Sunday night with elevated instability building into northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin during the night, this could set off a few boomers later in the night!

Monday and Tuesday will see an area of low pressure with its warm front and cold front affecting the upper Midwest — Warm and a little humid ahead of this system with cooler/drier air behind it.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible at times for Monday and Tuesday as this system moves through.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s early next week with a wide spread in high temps showing up per model guidance for Tuesday as a faster moving cold front would lead to much cooler temps with more clouds while a slower moving cold front would allow us to remain on the warm side for one more day.  Stay tuned!

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Lingering snow and rain showers mainly before midnight.  Mostly cloudy with some clearing late.  Low 26 to 31.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  Milder.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

Average temperatures for Saturday

High:  56
Low:   35

Sunrise Saturday:  5:58 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:15 PM CDT

Tim

Some clouds, breezy, few showers Thursday. Snow/Rain Friday (Much cooler) Coating of snow possible especially N/NE of Duluth. Warming up, turning more humid Sun-Tue (T-Storms?)

/Issued 7:18 PM CDT, Wednesday, April 25, 2018/

Here’s my snowfall accumulation map for early Friday morning. 

•Best chance for some snow is north/east of Duluth the way it looks now.

•Rain and Snow will begin late Thursday night, continuing through Friday morning before ending sometime Friday afternoon.

•If there is any snow accumulation it would likely occur early Friday morning, roughly from 3 AM to 9 AM Friday, and most of the snow should melt on contact, except possibly on grassy surfaces where some slush could accumulate.

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z WRF-NMM model — Simulated Radar Forecast from 1 AM Thursday to 1 PM Thursday. 

Green=Rain

Model guidance is showing a line of showers, probably just some light showers passing NW-SE through the Northland Thursday morning through early Thursday afternoon.

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European Ensemble model from April 25, 2018 — Valid for Monday, April 30, 2018.

500mb height Forecast for next Monday

The pattern that is setting up for early next week is one you’d see during the summer months with riding/very warm and increasingly humid air from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes while cooler air pours into the Rockies — A southwest flow aloft will develop between the warm air and cool air, and this could set the stage for a round or possibly few rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Sunday night through Wednesday across the upper Midwest and central Plains.

Weather Synopsis

High pressure was centered to our south/east early this evening while a cold front heads into the northern Plains. 

The Northland will have partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight with milder overnight lows compared to last night with lows tonight mainly in the 30s to lower 40s. 

Thursday will likely feature more clouds than what we saw today (Wednesday) but will likely still see some sun as well.  A few rain showers are possible Thursday as a cold front swings through the area.  Highs Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s.

A potent system will drop south/southeast out of Manitoba/Ontario Province late Thursday night through Friday — This one could bring a round of snow, rain or a mixture of both to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from early Friday morning into Friday afternoon.  It will also be quite a bit cooler on Friday with highs ranging from the upper 30s to around 50 degrees, warmest temps confined to areas near the Brainerd Lakes.

Saturday looks dry with highs in the 50s but slightly cooler near Lake Superior.

Sunday through Tuesday will turn warmer and eventually a little muggier as dew points rise to around 50 degrees or into the 50s for next Monday and Tuesday — Low pressure, warm front and cold front will impact the upper Midwest early next week with increasing amounts of instability developing across the region which could lead to some showers and thunderstorms at times from Sunday night through Tuesday. 

Highs for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s although cooler temperatures are possible near Lake Superior depending on wind direction.

East wind (Cooler near Lake Superior and in Duluth/Superior)

South wind (Cooler North Shore, warmer Duluth/Superior and South Shore)

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  A few showers possible mainly before Noon.  Mostly cloudy with some afternoon clearing.  High 50 to 55.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Friday…  Mostly cloudy.  Cooler.  Rain showers or a mix of rain and snow showers.  High 40 to 45.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Average temperatures for Thursday

High:  55
Low:   34

Sunrise Thursday:  6:02 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:12 PM CDT

Tim

10-15 degrees cooler Tuesday compared to Monday’s warmth, but still near average temps for late April (50s) Keeping an eye on early next week for our 1st potential T-Storm outbreak for our area

/Issued 6:25 PM CDT, Monday, April 23, 2018/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from April 23, 2018 — Two well defined upper lows spinning away today, one covering the southeast U.S. toward the Ohio Valley, the other over the northern Rockies.

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Notes  

•High temperature of 68 degrees at the Duluth Airport today, April 23, 2018 — Warmest day since October 20, 2017 when the high was 75 degrees.

•2 days so far this month with a high temperature of 60 degrees or warmer at Duluth, Minnesota — The average number of days in April with a high of 60 degrees or warmer is 6.

Weather Synopsis

Instant spring! We suffered through several weeks of never ending cold along with periods of snowfall from mid March through about mid April, but all of a sudden the weather pattern has shifted to a milder one, this isn’t too surprising though, as the atmosphere tries to balance out, so cold to start, and now a milder temperature pattern for our area.  Believe it or not even with the recent warm up, this month is still record coldest April at Duluth, Minnesota (Through the 22nd) with an average temperature of 28.3 degrees — I don’t think will maintain the record coldest spot, however, as we would have to maintain an average monthly temperature colder than 28.7 degrees through the 30th, I don’t see that happening.

Cold front will pass through the Northland tonight with some clouds but probably no rain, lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

Cooler temperatures are on the way for Tuesday with highs ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s with the coolest temps in extreme northern Minnesota.  Can’t rule out a few passing showers mainly through early afternoon, thereafter we should see skies clear out from NW-SE.  Southwest winds this evening ahead of the approaching cold front will turn N-NW after the cold front passes.

Wednesday looks like a pleasant spring day around here with highs mainly in the 50s to lower 60s with winds turning back to the southwest out ahead of another cold frontal passage which should happen on Thursday.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming north.

.Tuesday…  Cooler.  Considerable cloudiness during the morning, a few light rain showers possible.  Decreasing cloudiness during the afternoon.  High 52 to 57.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday…  Mostly sunny.  High 55 to 60.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Average Temperatures for Tuesday

High:  54
Low:   34

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:05 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:09 PM CDT

Tim