/Issued 5:29 PM CDT, Monday, April 9, 2018/
Here’s my preliminary snowfall map for the Wednesday night-Thursday morning event. Could see some adjustments to this map during the next 24 hours or so.
12z European Ensemble model from April 9, 2018.
500mb height anomaly forecast valid from Friday, April 13 through Thursday, April 19, 2018. A wave number 5 pattern setting up over the next several days. Troughs in blue, ridges in red on the map below.
Computer models are coming into decent agreement on the track of this weekend’s storm with very good agreement on the track through Friday, thereafter the storm track becomes a little more uncertain. There has been a shift south with the storm track (should end up somewhere between the black lines on map) Not too surprising that the storm track has shifted south some considering there is a strong high that will setup to our north over Ontario and Hudson Bay Canada. Even with a further south storm track, computer models continue to show the potential for significant amounts of snow and perhaps some ice accumulations in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Friday through Saturday, and possibly into Sunday. Stay tuned!
Note: Brainerd, Minnesota joins Hibbing and International Falls for coldest first 8 days of April on record. Average temperature at Brainerd for April 1-8: 17.1 degrees
Note: The period from April 1-8, 2018 ties with April 1-8, 1920 for coldest on record at Duluth, Minnesota with an average temperature of 19.6 degrees.
We definitely deserved a day like today after the frigid temperatures and periodic snowfalls we’ve seen around here lately. Highs today were in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees, so warmer compared to recent weeks, but believe it or not, today’s highs are still about 10 degrees colder than average for April 9. Lots of sun throughout the Northland today with high pressure in charge of our weather with the center of that high over the northern Plains.
The weather will remain quiet in our area tonight under clear to partly cloudy skies, lows will dip into the teens and 20s with single digits in a few spots.
Increasing cloudiness for Tuesday as high pressure shifts to our east which will cause the wind to shift to the south, this southerly flow will bring a little bit of moisture north into our area while a weak wave approaches from the west — Combo of both will likely result in some scattered snow and or rain showers that’ll affect parts of the Northland on Tuesday. Little or no snow accumulation is expected, however. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 30s to around 40.
Most of Wednesday will be dry with highs in the 30s and 40s, but by Wednesday night a somewhat stronger system approaches from the western High Plains — This system is expected to produce snow or a mixture of precipitation across the Northland with the greatest potential for some snow accumulation from Duluth north the way it looks now. Although temperatures during the day Wednesday will be on the mild side, we should get enough cooling to occur Wednesday evening which would lead to a period of snow for some late Wednesday night-Thursday morning.
Then the attention shifts to a potentially strong spring storm for Friday through Sunday. Temperatures look cold enough through this event for frozen precipitation in our area. Still have some concerns on the strong high setting up to our north for this weekend as it could shift the heaviest precip/snowfall a little further south from where the computer models show it today and have been showing for the last few days. One thing we can probably lock in will be strong northeast winds especially near Lake Superior from Friday through Sunday with potential for wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph. A tight pressure gradient between the low to our south and high to our north will cause these strong winds, plus the added funneling affect as winds come down Lake Superior. If we get significant amounts of snow near Lake Superior, then we could have some power outage issues this weekend because of the high winds.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Clear to partly cloudy. Low 15 to 20. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Becoming mostly cloudy. Snow or rain showers possible especially during the afternoon. High 34 to 39. Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph becoming east during the afternoon.
Average temperatures for Tuesday
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:30 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 7:50 PM CDT