/Issued 5:41 PM CDT, Thursday, April 12, 2018/
Looks like a few rounds of snow could affect parts of east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for Friday, Saturday and Sunday — So here’s what I have come up with for potential snowfall totals by Sunday night. More details below…
RTMA model 4 PM temperature analysis
Gale Watch in effect Friday night-Saturday night for western Lake Superior with a northeast gale event on the way. Winds will also ramp up in the Twin Ports area on Friday with northeast winds gusting 20-30 mph, increasing further for Friday night-Saturday night with wind gusts to 45 mph.
12z WRF-NMM model Simulated Radar Forecast from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday.
Purple/Pink colors=Mixed precipitation types
This model looks fairly accurate with how things should play out for Friday into Saturday morning with most of the snow, mixed precip and rain confined to southern Minnesota with snow spreading slowly north into central-eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Friday night-Saturday morning. Also of note is the potential for some lake effect snow showers from the Twin Ports, north toward Two Harbors, and east along the South Shore Friday night-Saturday morning.
Snowfall Reports from Thursday morning, April 12, 2018
Pengilly, MN: 4.0 in
Chisholm, MN: 3.4 in
Lake Winnibigoshish, MN: 3.0 in
6 SSW Grand Rapids, MN: 3.0 in
14 W Isabella, MN: 3.0 in
Island Lake, MN: 2.6 in
9 N Bayfield, WI: 2.6 in
Wolf Ridge, MN: 2.0 in
5 NE Arnold, MN: 2.0 in
3 SE Cotton, MN: 2.0 in
Duluth Airport: 1.4 in
7 N McGregor, MN: 1.3 in
Gile, WI: 1.3 in
1 W Silver Bay, MN: 1.2 in
Cook, MN: 1.2 in
Cass Lake, MN: 1.1 in
Herbster, WI: 1.0 in
Embarrass, MN: 1.0 in
4 W Grand Marais, MN: 0.6 in
1 NNE Cloquet, MN: 0.6 in
3 S Ashland, WI: 0.5 in
Note: 1.4 inches of snow at the Duluth Airport Thursday morning, April 12, 2018 — This ties with April 12, 1972 for 5th largest snowfall on record for April 12. The greatest snowfall on April 12 occurred in 2013 with 6.0 inches of snow.
It’s been one of those weeks, one day sunny and nice, next day gloomy and cool, we’re back to the gloomy/cool conditions today after the round of rain/snow earlier today. Highs today ranged from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
The battle is on between a strengthening high to our north and a powerful low to our southwest. The high will move little through the weekend, while the low advances slowly east out of Colorado. Pressure gradient will tighten between the high and low, and this will cause strong/gusty northeast winds especially near Lake Superior beginning on Friday with strong winds expected to persist through Sunday. Wind gusts from 30 to 45 mph are expected Friday evening through Sunday morning.
Very dry air pushing south out of central Canada should eat away at the precipitation shield as it tries to push north into southern portions of the Northland through Saturday morning, however, some snow or a mixture of precipitation is possible at times for Friday through Saturday morning mainly along/south of a line from Brainerd to Ashland.
Note: What happens Saturday night through Sunday night becomes more uncertain as the NAM and past two Euro runs have trended snowier once again, this is due to the storm becoming much more negatively tilted as it heads into the central/eastern Great Lakes late this weekend with precipitation pushing west/northwest out of Wisconsin and into parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. GFS and Canadian models aren’t buying into those previously mentioned model solutions well the newest Icon model run (18z) leans toward the snowier NAM and Euro solutions. Certainly something to keep an eye on during the next couple of model runs to see where the models trend.
My snowfall map above takes into account potential for additional snowfall on Sunday which is why I have rather high totals in parts of northwest Wisconsin. I’m keeping amounts to an inch or less for the time being for Duluth and the North Shore, but those totals would need to be raised considerably if the NAM, Euro and Icon models verify with their snowier solution for Sunday-Sunday night. Stay tuned!
A wide range in low temps on the way for tonight with single digits near the Ontario border to around 30 degrees in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Highs Friday will be in the 30s with some 40s possible in northern Minnesota.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 26 to 31. Wind becoming east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. A few snow showers or flurries possible. High 31 to 34. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph.
.Saturday… Windy. Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. Record cold high temperature possible. High 25 to 29. Wind east to northeast at 20 to 35 mph with higher gusts possible. Note: Record cold high for April 14 is 26 degrees set in 1926.
Average temperatures for Friday
Sunrise Friday: 6:25 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 7:54 PM CDT