/Issued 7:18 PM CDT, Wednesday, April 25, 2018/
Here’s my snowfall accumulation map for early Friday morning.
•Best chance for some snow is north/east of Duluth the way it looks now.
•Rain and Snow will begin late Thursday night, continuing through Friday morning before ending sometime Friday afternoon.
•If there is any snow accumulation it would likely occur early Friday morning, roughly from 3 AM to 9 AM Friday, and most of the snow should melt on contact, except possibly on grassy surfaces where some slush could accumulate.
12z WRF-NMM model — Simulated Radar Forecast from 1 AM Thursday to 1 PM Thursday.
Model guidance is showing a line of showers, probably just some light showers passing NW-SE through the Northland Thursday morning through early Thursday afternoon.
12z European Ensemble model from April 25, 2018 — Valid for Monday, April 30, 2018.
500mb height Forecast for next Monday
The pattern that is setting up for early next week is one you’d see during the summer months with riding/very warm and increasingly humid air from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes while cooler air pours into the Rockies — A southwest flow aloft will develop between the warm air and cool air, and this could set the stage for a round or possibly few rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Sunday night through Wednesday across the upper Midwest and central Plains.
High pressure was centered to our south/east early this evening while a cold front heads into the northern Plains.
The Northland will have partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight with milder overnight lows compared to last night with lows tonight mainly in the 30s to lower 40s.
Thursday will likely feature more clouds than what we saw today (Wednesday) but will likely still see some sun as well. A few rain showers are possible Thursday as a cold front swings through the area. Highs Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s.
A potent system will drop south/southeast out of Manitoba/Ontario Province late Thursday night through Friday — This one could bring a round of snow, rain or a mixture of both to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from early Friday morning into Friday afternoon. It will also be quite a bit cooler on Friday with highs ranging from the upper 30s to around 50 degrees, warmest temps confined to areas near the Brainerd Lakes.
Saturday looks dry with highs in the 50s but slightly cooler near Lake Superior.
Sunday through Tuesday will turn warmer and eventually a little muggier as dew points rise to around 50 degrees or into the 50s for next Monday and Tuesday — Low pressure, warm front and cold front will impact the upper Midwest early next week with increasing amounts of instability developing across the region which could lead to some showers and thunderstorms at times from Sunday night through Tuesday.
Highs for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s although cooler temperatures are possible near Lake Superior depending on wind direction.
East wind (Cooler near Lake Superior and in Duluth/Superior)
South wind (Cooler North Shore, warmer Duluth/Superior and South Shore)
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 38 to 43. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… A few showers possible mainly before Noon. Mostly cloudy with some afternoon clearing. High 50 to 55. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.
.Friday… Mostly cloudy. Cooler. Rain showers or a mix of rain and snow showers. High 40 to 45. Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Average temperatures for Thursday
Sunrise Thursday: 6:02 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 8:12 PM CDT