/Issued 6:43 PM CDT, Saturday, April 28, 2018/
Fire Weather Outlook for Sunday — Elevated Risk covers western-southern portions of the Northland.
…Critical Fire Weather Conditions are possible Sunday afternoon…
Fire Weather Watch in effect for Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for north central and east central Minnesota, parts of northeast Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin.
•Strong Gusty Southerly Winds
•Low Relative Humidity
•Winds: South 10 to 20 mph with gusts 30 to 35 mph
•Relative Humidity: Around 15 percent
•Temperatures: Low to mid 60s
***Any fires which develop may spread quickly through dry vegetation and quickly grow out of control***
18z NAM Nest Simulated Radar Forecast valid from 11 PM Sunday night to 10 AM Monday morning. Deeper moisture advecting northeast into our area late Sunday night could set off some showers and isolated thunderstorms late Sunday night over parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Brief downpours and a few lightning strikes would be the main hazards out of this activity.
The first marginal severe weather risk this spring in the Northland for Monday night for the Brainerd Lakes area — Other non-severe thunderstorms are possible over other parts of the Northland early Monday morning, and again Monday night.
Larger view of Monday’s Severe Weather Forecast
A nicer looking day compared to Friday but temperatures remained on the cool side with highs in the 40s near Lake Superior to the low-mid 50s elsewhere. Sunshine was abundant throughout the area today.
Clear and cool tonight as high pressure remains near our area. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with teens possible in the typical cold spots. Winds will be on the light side.
Milder southerly flow locks in on Sunday as high pressure makes its way toward the Ohio Valley. A dry day is in store with widespread sunshine. Highs will be in the 60s with a few western locales approaching 70 degrees! It’ll be cooler mainly along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Expect southerly breezes to increase by the afternoon with wind gusts 15 to possibly 30 mph.
Moisture advection increases for Sunday night thanks to a southwesterly low level jet >30 knots. PWATS in Duluth are forecast to increase from 0.30 inches Sunday evening to around 1.00 inch by Monday morning — This increase in moisture coupled with some elevated instability building northeast into the upper Midwest could cause some showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop late Sunday night into Monday morning. This activity should diminish before Noon Monday and this will set the stage for a very mild Monday afternoon. 850mb temperatures are forecast to rise to between +10 and +15C while 925mb temperatures range from +10 to +20C! By far the warmest airmass we’ve had so far this spring. As long as skies clear out enough, then we should have temperatures in the 70s come Monday afternoon with the cool spot being the North Shore of Lake Superior, if clouds stick around longer, then highs on Monday would hold in the 60s to around 70 degrees. Note: Fire weather concerns should be somewhat less for Monday as long as we get some showers Sunday night followed by an increase in low level moisture on Monday with dew points forecasted to range from 45 to 55 degrees.
Our next shot for scattered showers and thunderstorms comes Monday night-Tuesday as low pressure and a cold front move through the area.
Hibbing, Minnesota had their 3rd coldest low on record for April 28 with a low temperature Saturday morning of 21 degrees. The record low for April 28 is 19 degrees set in 1956. In addition, Hibbing had their 5th coldest high temperature on record for April 27 with a high on Friday of 38 degrees. The record coldest high for April 27 is 27 degrees which was set just last year in 2017.
International Falls, Minnesota had their 5th coldest low on record for April 28 with a low temperature Saturday morning of 22 degrees. The record low for April 28 is 9 degrees set in 1958.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Clear. Low 28 to 33. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph becoming south toward daybreak.
.Sunday… Breezy. Sunny. Milder. High 60 to 65. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph during the afternoon. Lake breeze and cooler temperatures possible closer to Lake Superior.
.Monday… Mild. Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms possible early in the morning otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 67 to 72. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph. Lake breeze and cooler temperatures possible closer to Lake Superior.
Average temperatures for Sunday
Sunrise Sunday: 5:57 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday: 8:16 PM CDT