/Issued 4:12 PM CDT, Sunday, April 29, 2018/
12z NSSL model
An increasingly humid airmass with 850mb dew points of +5 to +10C well to our southwest this evening will start to push northeast later tonight thanks to a strong southwesterly low level jet which will help advect deeper moisture northeast into the Northland — Often times when this type of setup occurs will get some showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop on the nose of the deeper moisture.
18z NAM Nest model simulated radar forecast from 1 AM tonight to 11 AM Monday
Extreme fire danger (red) and very high fire danger through this evening in all of Minnesota while most of Wisconsin is also in high or very high fire danger except in far western areas of the state where fire danger is rated as extreme per Wisconsin DNR.
12z Euro Ensemble model from April 29, 2018
Temperature departure map for the week of April 22, 2018 — Last week had a few mild days, but a couple of well below average days in either high and or low temps resulted in the entire week finishing below average across all of the Northland.
Precipitation departure map for the week of April 22, 2018 — Below average precipitation in all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
April 22-28, 2018
High Temperatures/Departure from Average
4/22: 61 F/+8 degrees above average
4/23: 68 F/+15 degrees above average
4/24: 56 F/+2 degrees above average
4/25: 58 F/+4 degrees above average
4/26: 57 F/+2 degrees above average
4/27: 40 F/-15 degrees below average
4/28: 46 F/-10 degrees below average
Low Temperatures/Departure from Average
4/22: 30 F/-3 degrees below average
4/23: 39 F/+6 degrees above average
4/24: 32 F/-2 degrees below average
4/25: 26 F/-8 degrees below average
4/26: 33 F/-1 degree below average
4/27: 33 F/-2 degrees below average
4/28: 26 F/-9 degrees below average
Note: Average temperature for the week of April 22: 43.2 degrees (-0.9 degrees below average) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 0.12 inches
Average: 0.65 inches
Departure: -0.53 inches below average
State Average for Minnesota for the week of April 22, 2018
Temperature: 46.1 degrees
Departure: -2.3 degrees below average
Precipitation: 0.03 inches
Departure: -0.64 inches below average
Moisture and some instability pushes northeast into our area through Tuesday.
Still a very dry airmass over the Northland today with 3 PM dew points only in the teens and 20s with PWATS ranging from 0.20 inches in far northeast Minnesota to 0.40 inches roughly along and west of a line from International Falls to Brainerd — Deeper moisture with PWATS of 0.80 to 1.00 inch with dew points in the mid to upper 40s were well southwest of our area as of mid afternoon Sunday, but this moisture will gradually push farther to the northeast by Monday morning.
Unfortunately with the mild temps, gusty south winds and very dry air, fire weather concerns will be with us through the evening hours with critical and elevated fire weather conditions in place over much of Minnesota and far western Wisconsin.
High temperatures today were in the 60s with much cooler temperatures in the 40s near Lake Superior where an onshore breeze continued today.
Clear skies will continue this evening as an upper level ridge remains over the upper Midwest, this ridge will begin to shift off to the east during the night which will lead to more clouds and a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows tonight will be in the 40s to lower 50s with 30s near Lake Superior.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies for Monday. Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms during the morning should diminish by Noon. Mild temperatures continue Monday along with a slightly more humid airmass which is something we haven’t had to deal with yet this spring — But dew points Monday afternoon won’t be overly high, only in the mid 40s to possibly low-mid 50s. Highs on Monday will be in the 60s and 70s with cooler temperatures again near Lake Superior (especially along the North Shore)
A few showers and thunderstorms could return Monday night and Tuesday as a cold front and area of low pressure pass through the upper Midwest, while the activity for late tonight-Monday morning is caused by a warm front lifting northeast with a warm/moist advection pattern developing overnight.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Clear this evening followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing after 3 AM. Low 40 to 45 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday… Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during the morning otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 67 to 72 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Morning showers possible. High 60 to 65. Wind southwest becoming west at 10 to 20 mph.
Average temperatures for Monday
Sunrise Monday: 5:55 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 8:18 PM CDT