/Issued 5:40 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 16, 2018/
Radar loop through 5:50 PM CDT, May 16, 2018 — Looks like the bulk of the scattered showers and thunderstorms will be over northwest Wisconsin through about 7-8 PM this evening before ending.
Watch the progression of today’s cold front as it drops south through the Northland — Afternoon cumulus field pops up near/south of the boundary thanks to the warm and slightly moist/unstable airmass that was in place today.
18z NAM-Nest model from 5.16.2018 (18z run) Simulated Radar from 1 AM Thursday to 7 PM Thursday — Most of the overnight hours should be dry in our area, then from around daybreak and through the day Thursday scattered showers develop and move through portions of the area, not expecting any severe weather tomorrow, and probably little thunderstorm activity, but a few downpours are possible in parts of the Northland on Thursday.
GEFS model 12z run from May 16, 2018.
Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid through June 1, 2018 — The rest of this month and the first day of June looks warmer than average across the northern Plains, upper Midwest and western Great Lakes, although near Lake Superior expect more fluctuations in temperatures depending on wind direction which is typical this time of year.
Record warmth in northeast Minnesota today, May 16, 2018
New Record: 88 degrees set on May 16, 2018
Old Record: 84 degrees set on May 16, 1962
New Record: 84 degrees set on May 16, 2018
Old Record: 83 degrees set on May 16, 1972
•Today is the 3rd day so far this month with a temperature of 80 degrees or warmer at Duluth, Minnesota. The average for May is 2 days, the record for May is 8 days set in 1980. By the way last May had zero days at or above 80 degrees in Duluth.
•April 16, over a foot of snow on the ground in Duluth after the record breaking winter storm that dumped over 12 inches of snow on April 15 — Fast forward one month to today’s date, May 16, record heat with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, with the Airport just 2 degrees shy of 90 degrees!
•A lot of us thought that spring would never get here after what happened back in early-mid April, quite a turn around since then! Yes we’ve still had several days of very cool temperatures this month especially near Lake Superior but that is quite typical for spring, but the shots of warm air have been quite impressive this month, our normal highs in mid May are in the low to mid 60s, we’ve had a few days in the 70s and even the 80s!
Summer temperatures in most of the Northland today thanks to a very warm airmass which was found south of a cold front in northern Minnesota. 850mb temps around +16C with 925mb temps up to +24C in parts of the area today, add to that some compressional warming just south of the cold front, and a breezy west-southwest wind, and you get a very warm day around here! Highs were in the 70s and 80s with a few locations getting close to 90 degrees on this 16th day of May! The cool spot was in far northern Minnesota thanks to an earlier cold frontal passage, these areas had highs in the mid 60s to low 70s today.
Big story through Friday will be the return of strong northeast winds and much cooler temperatures again near Lake Superior. East/northeast wind 15 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph occurring tonight into Thursday morning — Temperatures near Lake Superior will be in the 40s to lower 50s through Friday morning.
Inland temperatures will be in the 40s tonight with highs Thursday ranging from the low 50s to mid 70s, warmest temperatures found over southern areas from Brainerd east to Hinckley and Hayward.
Will have occasional rain showers in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Thursday through Saturday. Trying to nail down the best times for the rain is hard to do, but best guess would be during the day Thursday followed by dry conditions Friday morning-Friday afternoon, then some more showers move in sometime Friday night, possibly lingering through Saturday, but there is a chance the showers will be out of here by Saturday morning.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Turning windy and cooler. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 38 to 43. Wind becoming east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.
.Thursday… Windy and much cooler! 40 to 45 degrees colder compared to the record heat from Wednesday. High 46 to 51, around 40 near Lake Superior. Considerable cloudiness with occasional showers possible. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for May 17
Sunrise Thursday: 5:32 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 8:39 PM CDT