Muggy and warm through Saturday (Cooler at times near Lake Superior) Occasional showers and t-storms through Sunday morning, dry hours mixed in!

/Issued 5:49 PM CDT, Friday, June 29, 2018/

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

18z GFS model (6.29.2018)

Additional Storm Reports from June 28, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

5:56 PM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  1 N Denham, MN (Pine County)  A few large trees knocked down.  The largest diameter trees were 14 to 16 inches.

5:24 PM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  1 E Lawler, MN (Aitkin County)  Trees knocked down on County Road 13 east of Lawler.

4:52 PM:  Hail — 0.88 inch.  5 S Libby, MN (Aitkin County)

4:10 PM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  2 E Cromwell, MN (Carlton County)  A few trees knocked down.

3:18 PM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  3 NNW Balsam, MN (Aitkin County)  Trees knocked down in Savanna Portage State Park.

3:00 PM:  Hail — 0.75 inch.  4 W Bena, MN (Cass County)

3:00 PM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  4 W Bena, MN (Cass County)  A few trees knocked down.

1:28 PM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  1 SSE Remer, MN (Cass County)  Large tree snapped in half.

11:26 AM:  Hail — 1.75 inch.  8 WSW Warba, MN (Itasca County)  Golf Ball sized hail.

Weather Synopsis

The Heat Is On! Temperatures this afternoon have warmed into the low to mid 90s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Check out some of these temperatures from 5 PM today.

Hayward, WI:  97 F
Siren, WI:  97 F
Hinckley, MN:  95 F
Solon Springs, WI:  95 F
Ashland, WI:  93 F
Brainerd, MN:  90 F
McGregor, MN:  90 F

It is cooler in far northern Minnesota with temperatures in the 70s this afternoon, and even cooler closer to Lake Superior with temperatures in the 60s and 70s thanks to the lake breeze!

Temperatures were one story, the extremely muggy airmass is the other!  Dew points this afternoon were steamy with values in the mid 60s to mid 70s which combined with the hot temperatures has led to heat index readings climbing into the 100 to around 110 degree range in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, incredible!

Tonight:  A frontal boundary should remain over western to northern Minnesota.  Showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually develop during the night as convergence near the front helps break the cap.  Once storms develop they will have lots of energy and moisture and wind shear to tap into, and this could lead to a few strong to severe thunderstorms in parts of the Northland later tonight with damaging winds and hail being the main threats.  Lows tonight ranging from the 50s near Lake Superior with 60s and 70s elsewhere.

Saturday and Sunday:  Cold front moves slowly east and should be near the Minnesota/Wisconsin state line by Saturday evening, then into western Wisconsin by Sunday morning, the front will then get a better push to the south/east Sunday afternoon. 

The potential for severe weather is lower for Saturday, but enough instability will still be present for thunderstorm development with isolated stronger storms possible during the afternoon/evening hours.

 Highs Saturday in the 70s and 80s, a few locations in northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota might get up to around 90 degrees, but it doesn’t look as hot Saturday as it was on Friday. 

It will remain muggy through Saturday with dew points in the 60s and 70s across the Northland! 

Lower dew points move in on Sunday with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

Near Lake Superior:  Temperature forecast will be a challenge through Saturday due to the lake breeze.  East wind will continue tonight, but could shift directions at times on Saturday.  When the wind is out of the east, it will be cool, but if or when the wind direction shifts, temperatures will warm up considerably!  A better shot for a warmer west wind occurs on Sunday the way it looks now.

Tim

Wind Damage and Power Outages reported in parts of northern/northeast Minnesota Friday morning with wind gusts as high as 80 mph! Storm Reports and archived radar images of Friday morning’s bow echo in this post

/Issued 2:49 PM CDT, Friday, June 29, 2018/

Archived Radar Images of the bow echo which moved through parts of northern and northeastern Minnesota this Friday morning, June 29, 2018.

Source for all these radar images:  https://weather.us/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 satellite imagery from Thursday evening, June 28, 2018.  Absolutely stunning satellite loop showing powerful supercell thunderstorms which produced some tornadoes, destructive hail and wind damage Thursday evening in parts of the northern Plains — This was the beginnings of the bow echo that hit parts of the Northland Friday morning.

Severe weather in parts of the Northland this morning, now the heat!  Mid afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s along and south of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota and in all of northwest Wisconsin.  Lake breeze keeping it cooler closer to Lake Superior this afternoon.

It’s extremely muggy this afternoon with widespread 70+ degree dew points!

June 29, 2018 Northland Storm Reports
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

9:30 AM:  Marine Thunderstorm Wind.  46 mph.  2 SE Bayfield, WI (Ashland County)

8:58 AM:  Marine Thunderstorm Wind.  63 mph.  17 ESE Beaver Bay, MN.  Ship report Algoma Guardian reported a gust of 55 knots.

8:45 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  1 SSE Tofte, MN (Cook County)  Tree knocked down near the intersection of Highway 61 and Temperance Road.

8:04 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 65 mph.  5 S Ely, MN (St. Louis County)

7:55 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 80 mph.  4 WSW Snow Bank Lake, MN (Lake County) 

7:54 AM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  9 W Butterfly Lake, MN (Lake County)

7:42 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  Babbitt, MN (St. Louis County)  Lots of trees and power lines downed.

7:42 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  Babbitt, MN (St. Louis County)  20 inch diameter tree toppled and power line knocked down.

7:38 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  Trees are down in the Ely area including on power lines.  The power is out.

7:35 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 44 mph.  3 SE Eveleth, MN (St. Louis County) 

7:35 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  Eveleth, MN (St. Louis County)  Lots of trees and power lines downed.

7:34 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  Iron Junction, MN (St. Louis County)  20 inch diameter tree snapped on Kapla Lake Road.

7:30 AM:  Hail — 0.50 inch.  Chisholm, MN (St. Louis County)

7:29 AM:  Hail — 0.88 inch.  1 E Embarrass, MN (St. Louis County)

7:26 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 49 mph.  Hibbing, MN (St. Louis County)

7:26 AM:  Hail — 0.75 inch.  2 SW Chisholm, MN (St. Louis County)

7:18 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 58 mph.  Cook, MN (St. Louis County)

7:14 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  Hibbing, MN (St. Louis County)  Lots of trees and power lines downed.

7:09 AM:  Hail — 0.75 inch.  Coleraine, MN (Itasca County)

7:08 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  7 ENE Gheen, MN (St. Louis County)  Several pine trees ripped up at the roots and knocked down near Elbow Lake.

7:07 AM:  Hail — 0.50 inch.  2 SSW Coleraine, MN (Itasca County)

7:07 AM:  Hail — 1.00 inch.  2 N Mountain Iron, MN (St. Louis County)  Quarter sized hail.

7:05 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  Keewatin, MN (Itasca County)  Large tree branch down.  The branch is 3 inches in diameter.

7:02 AM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)

7:02 AM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  11 NW Coleraine, MN (Itasca County)

6:59 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  Coleraine, MN (Itasca County)  Tree fell onto a home and took down a power line.  No injuries reported.

6:39 AM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  Bigfork, MN (Itasca County)

6:31 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  Bowstring, MN (Itasca County)  Tree knocked down into a powerline and caught on fire.

6:20 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  2 NE Inger, MN (Itasca County)  Report of 15 inch diameter aspen trees down along CR 35 south of Oslund.

6:05 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  Alvwood, MN (Itasca County)  Numerous trees down along CR 29 near Alvwood.  One tree was on a cabin.

Links to Power Outage Maps

Minnesota Power:  http://outagemap.mnpower.com/external/default.html

Lake Country Power:  http://mi.lcp.coop:82/#viewer-menu-parent

Note:  Over 5400 Lake Country Power members are still without power as of 2 PM Friday, 93 total outages.

Note:  Severe thunderstorms plowed through portions of northern and northeast Minnesota this morning bringing damaging wind gusts and some hail with widespread wind damage reports.  Overall I don’t think the forecast was too far off for this severe weather event, timing was almost spot on with the projected time of potential impacts between 5-10 AM this morning, the area that was hit ended up favoring the north side of the outlined area, but I did mention that in my blog about this system possibly tracking a little farther north due to the approaching cap (warm temps aloft) which were moving northeast at the same time as severe thunderstorms were moving east out of northwest Minnesota early Friday morning.

Tim

Recap of today’s severe weather (Storm reports and power outage update in this post) Another round of strong to severe storms possible in parts of the Northland Fri AM. Very warm and muggy Friday PM, cooler near Lake Superior

/Issued 7:30 PM CDT, Thursday, June 28, 2018/

Thunderstorms, some strong to severe could form into a larger complex or bow echo tonight over North Dakota, these storms would then track toward the east, or possibly a little southeast or northeast Friday morning.

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

21z RAP model

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European model (6.28.2018)

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

Widespread excessive heat warnings, watches or heat advisories in effect for Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon/evening with some heavy downpours in spots, and just by looking at this radar image you can tell which way the storms were moving, to the southeast!

Source:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov

Severe weather reports map for Thursday, June 28, 2018. 
















June 28, 2018 Northland Storm Reports
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

6:25 PM:  Hail — 1.00 inch.  3 SSW Bruno, MN (Pine County)  Quarter sized hail from 6:23 PM to 6:35 PM.

6:12 PM:  Hail — 1.00 inch.  Willow River, MN (Pine County)  Quarter sized hail.

5:23 PM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  Tamarack, MN (Aitkin County)

5:00 PM:  Hail — 0.75 inch.  5 SSE Libby, MN (Aitkin County)

4:40 PM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  1 SW Mahtowa, MN (Carlton County)  Trees down across Highway 61 south of Mahtowa.

4:40 PM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  1 E Barnum, MN (Carlton County)  Numerous 30 to 40 foot tall trees down both north and south of the Barnum exit along I-35.

4:35 PM:  Hail — 0.50 inch.  2 NNE Barnum, MN (Carlton County)  Report of hail and debris along Highway 61 north of Barnum.

3:53 PM:  Hail — 0.50 inch.  5 NW Tamarack, MN (Aitkin County)  Hail duration was 5 to 10 minutes.

3:40 PM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  5 SSW Balsam, MN (Aitkin County) Reported on Horseshoe Lake.

3:13 PM:  Hail — 1.00 inch.  1 N Bena, MN (Cass County)  Report of cherry tomato-sized hail at a resort on the South Shore of Lake Winnibigoshish.

2:55 PM:  Hail — 1.75 inch.  1 NW Bena, MN (Cass County)  Pea to Golf Ball sized hail feel for over 7 minutes.

2:41 PM:  Hail — 1.00 inch.  7 WNW Swatara, MN (Cass County)  Quarter sized hail, with the largest stones slightly larger than a quarter.

2:10 PM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  3 NE Hermantown, MN (St. Louis County)  Pea sized hail at the Duluth Airport.

1:56 PM:  Funnel Cloud.  2 E Munger, MN (St. Louis County)  Multiple 911 calls of a funnel cloud near the 4000 block of Solway Rd.

1:52 PM:  Heavy Rain — 1.50 inch.  1 S Twig, MN (St. Louis County)  Pea sized hail too.

1:20 PM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  2 N Remer, MN (Cass County)

11:06 AM:  Hail — 0.75 inch.  6 SE La Prairie, MN (Itasca County)  Hail duration was about 5 minutes.

10:45 AM:  Hail — 1.25 inch.  6 SW Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)  One inch hail with a few stones to half-dollar sized.

Link to Power Outage Maps

Minnesota Power:  http://outagemap.mnpower.com/external/default.html

Lake Country Power:  http://mi.lcp.coop:82/#viewer-menu-parent

Rainfall Reports for June 28, 2018
Source:  https://mesowest.utah.edu

Hill City, MN:  2.46″
Moose Lake, MN:  0.64″
Saginaw, MN:  0.63″
Cass Lake, MN:  0.53″
McGregor, MN:  0.39″
Duluth Airport:  0.34″
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.22″
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport:  0.12″

Weather Synopsis

It was an active day in parts of north central and east central Minnesota as several strong to severe thunderstorms, some of which were supercellular developed before Noon today while tracking toward the east and southeast.  These storms likely formed near the boundary that moved through our area Wednesday evening, enough lift near that front coupled with high amounts of instability, moisture and wind shear helped to generate these storms that hit parts of the Northland today.

As of 8 PM all is quiet in our area.  A warm front stretched roughly from central North Dakota to south central Minnesota with powerful thunderstorms forming over portions of north central North Dakota in an area of greatest convergence per meso-analysis.

It should remain quiet in the Northland most of the night, however, additional thunderstorms some strong to severe are forecast to redevelop after 3 or 4 AM Friday.  It’s possible that will see a larger complex of thunderstorms, perhaps a bow echo with a potential for damaging winds sweeping through portions of the Northland Friday morning (5 AM to 10 AM time frame)  What area of the Northland gets hit Friday morning is still unclear as of 8 PM — Could be as far north as the Ontario-Minnesota border, or farther south toward Aitkin, Moose Lake and Ashland. 

By Friday afternoon, the warm frontal boundary is forecast to lift into far northern Minnesota and extend southeast around Lake Superior thanks to an east wind/marine layer.  Temperatures aloft should warm significantly over the entire area by Friday afternoon which should keep thunderstorms from redeveloping Friday afternoon and evening. 

Thunderstorms could impact parts of the area once again late Friday night or Saturday morning as a cold front moves slowly east out of western Minnesota.  Note:  There will be sufficient instability and wind shear in place for some of the storms to become strong to severe Friday night/Saturday morning.

As for temperatures Friday afternoon — I think the east wind is going to win out near Lake Superior so temperatures will likely only be in the 60s near the lake while on top of the hill in Duluth 70s to lower 80s.  Farther inland from Lake Superior, highs Friday afternoon ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s, warmest temps in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  It still looks very humid on Friday with dew points in the upper 60s to middle 70s although lower dew points will be found near Lake Superior due to the cooler temperatures.

Tim

A few showers/t-storms Thursday (Isolated strong to severe storms possible) highs in the 80s. Strong to severe t-storms with damaging winds possible Fri AM in parts of the Northland; Hot and capped Fri PM (Cooler by the lake?) Heat headlines may be needed Fri PM for parts of the Northland

/Issued 7:22 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 27, 2018/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 visible satellite loop for Wednesday, June 27, 2018 (ending around 7 PM)  Scattered thunderstorms have been moving south/east through parts of northeast Minnesota late this afternoon.

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European Computer Model (6.27.2018)

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European Computer Model (6.27.2018)

Note:  Not sure yet if will get the wind to shift directions in Duluth on Friday, if the wind remains out of the east which is certainly possible, then temperatures Friday afternoon would only be in the 70s to around 80 degrees, cooler near the lake…But, if the wind does shift to the south or southwest, then temperatures by late Friday afternoon would rocket toward 90 degrees in the Twin Ports.  Either way it will be muggy on Friday with dew points of 65 to around 75 degrees!

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European Computer Model

Potential weather pattern for mid to late next week — This pattern if it verifies could be an interesting one for the Northland with potential for some heat, very muggy air and possible clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall for mid to late next week.  Stay tuned!

June 27, 2018 Northland Storm Reports
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

•5:28 PM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  7 NW Tower, MN (St. Louis County)  Strong winds knocked garden corn crop down.

•4:55 PM:  Hail — 0.50 inch.  4 SW Orr, MN (St. Louis County)

Weather Synopsis

A cold front has moved into north central Minnesota early this evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring near that front this afternoon in far northern and northeastern Minnesota.  CAPE up to 2000 j/kg was in place in parts of the Northland as of 7 PM along with 30 to 40 knots of deep layer wind shear, this combined with enough convergence near the cold front has allowed for the development of some convection this afternoon.  Otherwise today saw a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees with dew points in the upper 50s to middle 60s so slightly muggy.

A few showers and thunderstorms should persist til around midnight in parts of northeast and east central Minnesota before things settle down overnight, brief heavy downpours, occasional lightning will be the main hazards out of this activity with isolated instances of hail or gusty winds also possible.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies for the rest of tonight with lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s.

The cold front that is over northern Minnesota early this evening will move south into central Minnesota by Thursday morning, this front will more or less stall out through Friday morning while it turns into a warm front.  Quite a bit of instability will develop near this warm front on Thursday, this coupled with strong winds aloft and favorable wind shear could lead to a few strong to severe thunderstorms mainly over southern portions of the Northland on Thursday.

A strengthening low level jet develops Thursday night with even stronger instability advecting NE into the Northland.  Pretty strong signals showing up on the models for a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms to erupt sometime Thursday night over North Dakota, this activity would then move through parts of northern Minnesota Friday morning the way it looks now.  Damaging winds and possibly some hail are possible with the storms Friday morning.

Friday afternoon and evening looks capped with very warm 700mb temperatures of +13 to +16C over the Northland.  It also looks very warm and sultry with temperatures Friday afternoon ranging from the middle 80s to middle 90s while dew points range from 67 to 75 degrees!  A lake breeze is possible most of Friday near Lake Superior, and if one occurs, then temperatures will be a lot cooler near Lake Superior, probably in the 60s or 70s.

A cold front is forecast to move through the Northland sometime Friday night or Saturday with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible until this front gets far enough to our south/east. 

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers and thunderstorms before midnight.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers and thunderstorms possible.  High 79 to 84.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Humid.  Morning showers and thunderstorms possible followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies during the afternoon.  High 75 to 80 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal Temperatures for June 28

High:  74
Low:   53

Sunrise Thursday:  5:17 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim

Highs Wednesday 70s to lower 80s, more humid with isolated showers/t-storms. Highs Thursday in the 80s; Risk of strong to severe thunderstorms Friday morning, hot and muggy Friday afternoon

/Issued 5:22 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 26, 2018/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop with radar overlaid, Tuesday, June 26, 2018.

Upper low moving east out of northeast Iowa today with our next system currently over western North Dakota moving to the east.

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

Source:  https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov

Note:  The average water temperature on Lake Superior is at 43 degrees as of June 26, 2018.  This is close to average for late June.  Lake Superior water temperature typically peaks in late July or August.  A few summers ago (2016) water temperature peaked at ~70 degrees!
















Rainfall Reports for Tuesday, June 26, 2018
Source:  https://mesowest.utah.edu

Hinckley, MN:  1.33 inches
Siren, WI:  1.02 inches
Moose Lake, MN:  0.77 inches
McGregor, MN:  0.07 inches
Duluth Airport:  0.06 inches
Saginaw, MN:  0.03 inches
Minong, WI:  0.02 inches
Aitkin, MN:  0.02 inches

Weather Synopsis

Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies were found in our area today.  An upper level low was over northeast Iowa, this system brought some rain to eastern Minnesota especially this morning with a few showers occurring this afternoon mainly over parts of northwest Wisconsin.  Highs today ranged from the 50s near Lake Superior to the mid 60s to upper 70s over the rest of the area, warmest temperatures in far northern Minnesota today.

A few rain showers will linger this evening over northwest Wisconsin and possibly into northeast Minnesota.  Dry for the overnight hours with patchy fog possible.  Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies tonight with lows in the upper 40s to around 60 degrees.

Will finally get rid of the strong lake wind on Wednesday which has been in place for the last few days, although will still have an east wind near Lake Superior it won’t be nearly as strong as it has been lately, so temperatures even near Lake Superior should climb into the 70s Wednesday afternoon while farther inland highs will range from the upper 70s to middle 80s.  It’ll also be turning more humid on Wednesday with dew points climbing into the low to mid 60s by the afternoon. 

Upper level low to our south this afternoon will continue on its slow E/NE track through Wednesday but following this system will be a cold front which moves into the Northland by late Wednesday afternoon.  Model guidance continues to show a fair amount of instability developing near this front Wednesday afternoon/evening with CAPE of 1000 to ~2000 j/kg while 500mb winds increase to around 40 knots later in the day.  Should see at least isolated coverage of showers and thunderstorms develop Wednesday afternoon across north central Minnesota, this activity would then move toward the south/east Wednesday evening.  A low risk that a few of the storms could become strong to severe late Wednesday afternoon or evening with wind shear increasing to around 30 to 40 knots.  Hail and gusty winds would be the main threats if stronger storms develop late Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday continues to look like a nice summer day around here with lower dew points compared to Wednesday while high temps range from the upper 70s to middle 80s! 

A warm front approaches from the SW late Thursday night while the low level jet increases during the night which will help transport deeper moisture and instability up into our area — A complex of thunderstorms should develop Thursday night somewhere over the northern Plains, this complex of storms would then move east or possibly northeast/southeast through parts of the Northland Friday morning the way it looks now.  Significant warming will be taking place aloft with 700mb temps +14C building NE early Friday morning, this could keep any thunderstorm complex from tracking too far south, instead it may only impact extreme northern Minnesota or along the Ontario/Minnesota border, but if the warmer temperatures or CAP is slower to arrive, that could cause the thunderstorm complex to affect more of the Northland.  Stay tuned.  With the amount of potential energy in the air for Friday morning there will be a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and some hail.

Friday afternoon looks capped with very warm temperatures aloft (700mb temps +14 to +18C!) If skies clear out enough after Friday morning, then highs Friday afternoon should have no problem reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s, maybe even a few mid 90s in southern portions of the Northland.  Very high dew points are also expected on Friday ranging from the upper 60s to middle 70s.  Heat index values ranging from the low 90s to around 100 degrees are possible in parts of the Northland for Friday afternoon, and heat headlines may be needed for that time period.

A cold front is then expected to move through the Northland Friday evening into Saturday.  When the cap breaks, showers and thunderstorms should erupt sometime Friday night with lingering convection on Saturday, although this could end up more to our south/east depending on how quickly the cold front moves through.  Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday night and Saturday with favorable amounts of instability and shear in place.

Thunderstorms that develop Thursday night through Saturday will also be heavy rain producers thanks to the tropical moisture that will be in place.  Localized flooding can’t be ruled out, but faster storm motions late this week compared to the last event back in mid June could diminish the flood threat at least a little bit, unless storms start to train over the same location for a few hours which would increase the potential of flooding.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Breezy.  Isolated showers possible this evening.  Low 49 to 54.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, wind decreasing to 10 to 15 mph late.

.Wednesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible late in the afternoon into the evening.  Turning more humid.  High 75 to 80.  Wind variable at 6 to 13 mph.  Afternoon dew point 62 to 66 degrees.

.Thursday…  Partly cloudy.  High 80 to 85.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal Temperatures for June 27

High:  74
Low:   53

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim