/Issued 7:25 PM CDT, Monday, June 11, 2018/
Radar loop ending at 7:40 PM CDT, Monday, June 11, 2018
7:40 PM CDT — Showers with some heavier downpours moving E/NE across south central Minnesota with some more showers moving northeast across the northwest portion of Minnesota. Not much happening in between but this could change by late this evening.
18z NAM-Nest model
12z European Ensemble model from June 11, 2018
Rainfall Reports for Monday, June 11, 2018
Note: Totals listed below are through 3 PM CDT, June 11, 2018
Pine River, MN: 0.82 in
Brainerd, MN: 0.51 in
Cass Lake, MN: 0.45 in
Hill City, MN: 0.37 in
McGregor, MN: 0.32 in
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.07 in
An upper level and surface area of low pressure was over eastern Alberta Province this afternoon with a cold front extending south/east of that low through the eastern Dakotas. Southerly low level jet up to 35 knots was over the upper Midwest today which is bringing moisture north into our area.
3 PM PWATS ranged from 1.50 to 1.70 inch around the Brainerd Lakes area with 0.60 to 0.90 inch PWATS in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, so drier the farther east you go, but this will change through the evening thanks to the low level jet which will continue to pump deeper moisture into the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin.
Rain has been falling today in north central and east central Minnesota with the heaviest totals thus far near the Brainerd Lakes area where rainfall amounts have exceeded one half inch through 3 PM today, the rest of the Northland stayed rain-free today.
Sunshine for some of us this morning gave way to increasing cloudiness this afternoon while western areas were generally mostly cloudy all day long. Highs today were in the 60s where clouds and rain occurred, 70s elsewhere except for areas near Lake Superior with east winds continuing today keeping temperatures in the 50s.
Mostly cloudy skies tonight with some rain affecting the Northland as a slow moving cold front continues to move east out of the northern Plains. Some instability will be present ahead of the front tonight with elevated CAPE ranging from 200 to around 800 j/kg — A few thunderstorms will probably occur at times tonight because of this instability, but severe weather isn’t expected. There will be plenty of moisture available for heavy downpours tonight but it remains to be seen just how widespread and heavy any rain will be later tonight up in our area. Lows will range from the mid 40s to around 60 degrees.
Tuesday morning finds the cold front over western Lake Superior into far northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota — This front will continue to move slowly south/east through the day. Showers could linger into Tuesday morning in northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota. Mostly cloudy skies for the morning with some clearing expected during the afternoon. Winds shift to the west on Tuesday so temperatures will finally warm up near Lake Superior. Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the 70s.
An upper level disturbance passes through the area Tuesday night bringing a few showers along with it, then high pressure keeps us dry for Wednesday with highs in the 70s.
Note: Friday through Sunday could potentially turn stormy at times across the Northland. An upper level ridge is forecast to setup to our south/southeast with an upper trough over the western U.S. This puts us in a southwest flow aloft with a frontal boundary likely setting up somewhere over the upper Midwest. Computer models are showing moderate to strong instability over the region this weekend along with a very humid airmass with dew points in the 60s and 70s! There will probably be a couple clusters of thunderstorms which could be strong to severe that’ll develop and impact parts of the Minnesota and Wisconsin for Friday, Saturday and Sunday — Heavy rainfall and possibly some flooding will also be a threat over the weekend. High temps in the 70s and 80s but it could be cooler near Lake Superior depending on the wind direction Friday through Sunday.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers developing. Low 47 to 52. Wind east to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the day. Some clearing developing during the afternoon. Milder. High 72 to 77. Wind variable around 12 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 74 to 79. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal Temperatures for Tuesday
Sunrise Tuesday: 5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 9:03 PM CDT