/Issued 4:41 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 12, 2018/
7-Day Rainfall Forecast valid through Tuesday, June 19, 2018
12z GEFS model from June 12, 2018
12z Euro Ensemble model from June 12, 2018
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Tuesday, June 12, 2018 — Watch that little swirl moving through North Dakota this afternoon — This is actually a fairly strong disturbance which will pass through the Northland tonight, and with moisture and instability lingering over the area, we could see a few showers and thunderstorms pop up through the night.
20z HRRR model — Simulated radar forecast through 3 AM CDT Wednesday. Spotty showers and thunderstorms possible over parts of the Northland especially before midnight.
Couldn’t quite get the trifecta to happen in Duluth today. 1: Temperatures did warm up, finally. 2: Wind direction did shift, finally. 3: Sunshine, well that didn’t really happen most of the day as clouds have been slow to erode through 4 PM. I guess 2 out of 3 ain’t bad. Certainly a lot better today than it has been lately near Lake Superior.
Northern Minnesota has seen the most sun today while farther east skies were mostly cloudy for most of the day but these clouds are thinning late this afternoon which has allowed for some sun to break out. Highs today ranged from the upper 60s to middle 70s, near to slightly warmer than average for June 12.
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible in parts of the Northland this evening. CAPE to 1000 j/kg with wind shear of 30 to 40 knots is present this evening in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, so if thunderstorms can develop they could be on the strong side with a threat of hail and gusty winds especially in northwest Wisconsin. The disturbance approaching from North Dakota along with a lingering cold front which is over western Wisconsin late this afternoon will be the lifting mechanisms to get a few storms to pop tonight. Otherwise for tonight expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 40s and 50s.
Wednesday will be one of those classic Northland late spring/early summer days! I’m expecting a lot more sun Wednesday compared to what we saw Tuesday. Westerly breezes up to 20 mph, low humidity with high temps in the 70s to around 80 degrees. High pressure passing through the upper Midwest will give us this nice weather Wednesday — This high moves southeast of us on Thursday and southerly winds will develop with increasing moisture and instability arriving by Thursday night as a warm front extends from central North Dakota to central Iowa. Should see some showers and thunderstorms erupt near and north of that warm front Thursday night, and some of this activity could make its way into the Northland Friday morning.
Note: Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are then expected for Friday, Saturday and Sunday as the weather pattern gets blocked up with an upper low/trough to our west and an upper level ridge to our southeast. A very muggy/tropical SW flow aloft will set up across the upper Midwest with record or near record Precipitable Water values possible this weekend ranging from 1.70 to around 2.20 inches! A frontal boundary is forecast to setup generally SW-NE over the region with the strongest instability we’ve seen so far this season forecast to develop with CAPE of 2000-4000 j/kg per model guidance. Lapse rates look steep, possibly over 7.0 c/km. Winds aloft also look to be on the strong side — All of this points to the possibility for several rounds of thunderstorms some of which could be strong to severe from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rain is also a big threat with the deep tropical moisture that is forecast to be over our area — Flooding could become an issue over the weekend. Be sure to stay weather aware this weekend!
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible this evening. Low 50 to 55. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday… Mostly sunny. High 75 to 80. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 70 to 75 but turning cooler near Lake Superior. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
Normal Temperatures for Wednesday
Sunrise Wednesday: 5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 9:04 PM CDT