/Issued 6:02 PM CDT, Thursday, June 14, 2018/
18z 3km NAM
Weather Prediction Center rainfall forecast
Goes-16 water vapor satellite image from Thursday, June 14, 2018
Note: See loop below showing how thunderstorms are going up and over that ridge across the central Plains today.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Thursday, June 14, 2018
12z European Ensemble model from June 12, 2018
Lake breeze returned today with temperatures near Lake Superior in the 50s and 60s. Inland locations had highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Clouds and a few light showers and sprinkles passed through some parts of the area early this morning, then much of the area had sunshine, but clouds have been moving into western portions of the area late this afternoon out ahead of a warm front.
The pattern through Sunday will change little and will consist of an upper level ridge to our south/southeast with an upper level trough to our west. A southwest flow aloft will cover the upper Midwest between the upper ridge and upper trough.
A warm front will move into the Northland late tonight and will linger over our area through Friday night, then a cold front will move into the area and likely stall out for Saturday and Sunday.
Moisture will continue to increase tonight with dew points Friday, Saturday and Sunday forecast to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s (lower near Lake Superior) PWATS are forecast to be incredibly high at times, ranging from 1.50 to 2.25 inches — This will increase the threat for very heavy rainfall rates when thunderstorms occur.
Instability will be on the increase tonight and will remain moderately high through Sunday with models showing anywhere from 1500 to around 4500 j/kg of mostly elevated CAPE in our area. Plenty of energy for thunderstorms.
Temperatures aloft will also warm with 700mb temperatures forecast to be in the +10 to +12C range, what this will do is prevent a lot of the thunderstorms from becoming surface-based through the weekend which lessens the potential for tornadoes.
Our biggest threats from these thunderstorms through Sunday will be from very heavy rainfall, lightning, gusty winds and hail.
Flash flooding could develop in parts of the Northland through the weekend, especially in areas that get hit multiple times by thunderstorms, or if thunderstorms begin to train over the same location for a couple of hours, that too would increase the risk for flash flooding.
Be sure to stay weather aware the next few days!
Temperature forecast is a tricky one as cooler outflows from thunderstorms could keep temperatures cooler in some locations, plus the amount of sun or lack of sun we see through Sunday is uncertain. High temps in the 70s and 80s seem like a good bet in most of the Northland for the next few days, but if skies are sunnier and there is less rain, then highs could get into the lower 90s especially in far southern portions of the area (Pine City, Hayward areas) Near Lake Superior I’m expecting a lake breeze to persist through Saturday which will keep temps in the 50s and 60s by the lake.
Normal Temperatures in Duluth for Friday
Sunrise Friday: 5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 9:05 PM CDT