/Issued 5:45 PM CDT, Thursday, June 21, 2018/
12z European Computer Model from June 21, 2018
This is still a ways out so certainly not a sure thing, yet, but the long range computer models appear to be coming into better agreement on the expected weather pattern for late June into early July, the pattern would be quite similar to the one that setup last weekend which produced multiple clusters of thunderstorms, very heavy rain and flash flooding in parts of the Northland. Stay tuned!
Goes-16 satellite loop for Thursday, June 21, 2018 — Quite a storm churning south/east through parts of the Midwest today.
RTMA model temperature analysis
An interesting weather pattern in place on this first official day of summer. An upper level low was over northern Missouri late this afternoon with clouds and showers underneath this low keeping high temps only in the 60s today, while farther north its quite warm with temperatures this afternoon in the mid 80s to low 90s from North Dakota and northern Minnesota, north into portions of Manitoba and Ontario Provinces. 5 PM temperatures in the Northland ranged from 84 degrees at International Falls to the upper 50s and 60s near Lake Superior and generally in the 70s in east central Minnesota. 850mb temperatures at 5 PM today ranged from +20C in central Manitoba Province to +12C in northern Missouri, so yes head north if you want warm summer temperatures.
Partly to mostly cloudy and dry tonight with patchy fog possible especially near Lake Superior. Wide range in lows are expected with mid 40s to low 50s near Lake Superior with 60s in northern Minnesota.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies should continue for Friday and Saturday — Will see a cold front move slowly south out of central Ontario Province, this front should pass through the Northland Saturday afternoon/evening. Enough moisture and some modest instability will be in place ahead of this front which will help to produce a few showers and thunderstorms on Friday mostly in extreme northern Minnesota, then for Saturday a risk for a few showers and thunderstorms over most of the Northland with perhaps somewhat greater coverage of showers Saturday compared to Friday. Severe weather isn’t expected Saturday, but some heavy downpours are possible if you get underneath one of these storms.
High temps Friday in the 70s and 80s, slightly cooler near Lake Superior. Highs Saturday in the 70s to lower 80s, again slightly cooler near Lake Superior.
A stronger lake breeze develops late Saturday night and persists through Sunday, similar to what happened Wednesday evening. Potential for wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph Saturday night and Sunday with highs on Sunday only in the 50s near Lake Superior, 60s to around 70 degrees farther inland.
Rain chances look to return to the Northland sometime in the Monday evening through Wednesday time frame (June 25-27) as a slow moving area of low pressure approaches from the southwest. Some heavy rain is possible along with a few thunderstorms with this system early to mid next week.
Note: The pattern from about late June into early July could flip back to a similar one that occurred last weekend — Trough out west, ridge to our south/southeast with a moist and potentially active SW flow aloft setting up across the northern Plains, upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. Still lots of time for the models to change, but certainly will want to monitor later forecasts as we get closer to late next week and beyond for potential impacts from heat, humidity, thunderstorms, severe weather and heavy rainfall.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 47 to 52. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 75 to 80, little cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms possible during the afternoon. High 75 to 80, little cooler near Lake Superior. Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.
Normal Temperatures for June 22
Sunrise Friday: 5:15 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 9:07 PM CDT