/Issued 4:48 PM CDT, Sunday, June 24, 2018/
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop with radar overlaid — Sunday, June 24, 2018.
Nice looking system for late June over the northern and central Plains, but as it heads closer to the Northland it will be running into drier air coming off the Hudson Bay high, end result should be for mostly light to moderate rain showers Monday and Tuesday with little in the way of thunderstorm activity for our area.
21z HRRR model — Simulated radar forecast through 10 AM Monday. Western/southwest Minnesota will be wet tonight with rain and thunderstorms, heavy rain and a few strong to severe storms for those areas of the state. The Nipigon high keeping the Northland high and dry tonight.
Note: More discussion about the setup for later this week can be found a little further down in this post.
Temperature departure map for the week of June 17, 2018. Most of the Northland had warmer than average temps last week, exception was in the far northeast part of Minnesota which had below average temps (Green colors on map)
Precipitation departure map for the week of June 17, 2018. Greatest departures from normal were in northwest Wisconsin and in parts of eastern Minnesota with total rainfall last week some 1 to 3 inches above the average!
Temperature and Precipitation Report for Duluth, Minnesota
June 17 through 23, 2018
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
6/17: 76 F/+5 degrees above normal
6/18: 77 F/+5 degrees above normal
6/19: 75 F/+3 degrees above normal
6/20: 81 F/+9 degrees above normal
6/21: 73 F/+1 degree above normal
6/22: 82 F/+9 degrees above normal
6/23: 81 F/+8 degrees above normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
6/17: 59 F/+9 degrees above normal
6/18: 57 F/+7 degrees above normal
6/19: 54 F/+4 degrees above normal
6/20: 56 F/+5 degrees above normal
6/21: 53 F/+2 degrees above normal
6/22: 49 F/-2 degrees below normal
6/23: 52 F/Normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of June 17: 66.1 degrees (+4.7 degrees above normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 1.31 inches
Normal: 1.06 inches
Departure: +0.25 inches above normal
State Averages for Minnesota for the week of June 17, 2018
Temperature: 69.6 degrees
Departure: +2.5 degrees above normal
Precipitation: 2.37 inches
Departure: +1.34 inches above normal
Very windy and cool conditions near Lake Superior today, little nicer farther inland but cooler compared to the last few days. Hudson Bay high is building south today while low pressure churns over South Dakota. NE wind coming off that Hudson Bay high with the added funneling affect as those winds move down Lake Superior has led to a brisk early summer day with highs near Lake Superior only in the low to mid 50s today, this combined with 15 to 30 mph winds off the lake making it quite miserable to be outdoors for long periods of time.
Farther inland, highs made it into the mid 60s to lower 70s today with lighter wind speeds.
Skies were generally partly to mostly sunny in our area today.
Tonight through Tuesday: Low pressure will move slowly east/northeast out of South Dakota while high pressure remains over eastern Canada. A few waves of showers on the way across the Northland, mostly affecting western-southern areas on Monday, then the entire Northland will have a risk for some rain showers Monday night into Tuesday. The greatest moisture and potential for heaviest rainfall looks like it will remain south of our area, although some of it could work its way into northern Wisconsin on Tuesday so that will have to be watched.
Lows tonight in the mid 40s to mid 50s, highs Monday (away from Lake Superior) ranging from the lower 60s to near 80 degrees, warmest temps in southern parts of the area. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s.
Although not as windy the next few days compared to today, northeast winds will still gust to 15 to 25 mph for Monday and Tuesday for locations near Lake Superior with highs in the 50s.
Upper low exits to the east on Wednesday but will be followed up by a cold front which heads east out of western Minnesota. Could see a few showers and thunderstorms develop near this front Wednesday afternoon/evening depending on the amount of clearing, heating, moisture and instability there is ahead of this front as it moves into the Northland later in the day on Wednesday. Highs Wednesday in the 70s to lower 80s.
Thursday night into Friday morning has potential to be stormy in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as an area of strong instability to our southwest builds NE. Could see a thunderstorm complex develop which may affect some parts of the Northland late Thursday night-Friday morning, strong to severe storms along with heavy rainfall on the table late this week.
Computer models disagree on how quickly a ridge breaks down this weekend. Euro breaks the ridge down more quickly compared to the GFS model which keeps us warm, muggy and stormy at times from Friday through Monday (June 29 through July 2) Euro solution would have the best chance for storms occurring Friday and Saturday with drier conditions Sunday as the best moisture and instability gets shunted off to our east.
GFS model is alarming as it produces several rounds of thunderstorms with significant amounts of rain across the Northland late this week into early the following week which would raise the risk for additional flooding in some parts of the area.
Euro model isn’t quite as alarming as the GFS, but still could have at least some potential for flooding Friday or Saturday.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Windy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 47 to 52. Wind east at 15 to 30 mph.
.Monday… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 61 to 66, cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.
.Tuesday… Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 55 to 60. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph.
Normal Temperatures for Monday
Sunrise Monday: 5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 9:07 PM CDT