/Issued 4:12 PM CDT, Monday, June 25, 2018/
12z European Computer model (6/25/2018)
12z European Computer Model (6.25.2018)
A few things to keep an eye on for later this week, one is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, the other is the possibility for very hot temperatures Friday afternoon. In order to get as warm as some of the computer models are showing on Friday will need a few things to happen…More info a little further down in this post.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Monday, June 25, 2018.
Still watching a strong upper level area of low pressure over Nebraska which continues to move slowly toward the east/northeast today — This system is tracking farther south than what was forecast 24 hours ago, this will likely mean less rainfall for the Northland on Tuesday.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Monday, June 25, 2018
Mid and high level clouds moving SW-NE while cumulus clouds track SE-NW through the Northland today. Also note the lack of cumulus clouds near Lake Superior this afternoon thanks to the cool/dry air off Lake Superior which is stabilizing the atmosphere.
Note: Some roads in northwest Wisconsin are still closed a week after the major flooding that occurred in parts of northwest Wisconsin – Link to road closures
A portion of Highway 23 is still closed in Carlton county Minnesota, more info at this link including a detour route that is in place: http://www.dot.state.mn.us/d1/index.html
Warmer temperatures for most of us today as northeast winds on Sunday shifted more to the south or southeast today. Temperatures aloft have also warmed today with 925mb temps of +18 to +20C over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, these were down to around +10 to +12C 24 hours ago. Highs today ranged from the lower 70s to lower 80s. The cool spot was near Lake Superior with highs today ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s along with gusty NE winds from 15 to 25 mph.
There were some rain showers this morning in western parts of the area, and also near and south of the Twin Ports but it was mostly dry in our area late this afternoon.
Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies across the Northland through Wednesday. Some rain showers will occur at times tonight and Tuesday mainly affecting western/southern areas. Probably won’t get much rain at all through Tuesday from the Iron Range, to the Borderland and Arrowhead areas.
Lows tonight ranging from the mid 40s to around 60 degrees, coolest temps near Lake Superior. Highs Tuesday should be similar to Monday’s highs, 70s to around 80 degrees although it will be cooler once again near Lake Superior.
Changes take place starting Wednesday. Mid level winds increase with the flow aloft becoming more zonal (west to east) then backing southwest later in the week. A cold front is forecast to move into the Northland on Wednesday with computer models showing an increase in instability occurring near and slightly ahead of the front with CAPE possibly approaching 1000 j/kg in north central Minnesota late Wednesday afternoon — Dew points are also expected to increase with values possibly in the 60 to 65 degree range Wednesday afternoon so it will feel a little more humid by midweek. Isolated to scattered coverage showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across north central and east central Minnesota with some potential for stronger storms due to the stronger flow aloft. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
Most of Thursday looks dry, but by Thursday night into Friday morning a potentially severe line of thunderstorms could rip through portions of the Northland. Strong instability with CAPE 2000-3000 j/kg is forecast to setup to our southwest along with steep mid level lapse rates which will advect NE into our area later in the night. Temperatures aloft look very warm to our southwest with 700mb temps >+14C! This should keep areas of western/southern Minnesota capped or thunderstorm free Thursday night. A warm front approaching from the SW combined with the high amounts of fuel in the atmosphere coupled with stronger winds aloft point to a potential stormy late Thursday night/Friday morning in portions of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Heavy rainfall will also be a threat but the strong winds aloft should keep these storms moving along which could minimize the flood threat later this week.
That leads us to Friday which could have blast furnace type heat in some parts of the area. Much will depend on how fast the warm front moves through and how quickly temperatures warm aloft (CAP) GFS shows a weaker cap and a slower moving warm frontal boundary which keeps scattered storms going most of the day along with cooler temperatures. Euro solution is a hot one! Big time cap with 90+ degree temperatures along with heat index temperatures from 95 to 100 degrees for Friday afternoon, warmest temps generally near and south of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota including all of northwest Wisconsin — The cap then erodes and storms explode sometime Friday night per Euro model.
Additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this weekend, especially on Saturday.
Looks kinda wild around here later this week!
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Breezy. Low 47 to 52. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy. Breezy. A few showers possible. High 64 to 69 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 73 to 78. Wind light and variable becoming southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
Normal Temperatures for Tuesday
Sunrise Tuesday: 5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 9:07 PM CDT