/Issued 5:22 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 26, 2018/
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop with radar overlaid, Tuesday, June 26, 2018.
Upper low moving east out of northeast Iowa today with our next system currently over western North Dakota moving to the east.
Note: The average water temperature on Lake Superior is at 43 degrees as of June 26, 2018. This is close to average for late June. Lake Superior water temperature typically peaks in late July or August. A few summers ago (2016) water temperature peaked at ~70 degrees!
Rainfall Reports for Tuesday, June 26, 2018
Hinckley, MN: 1.33 inches
Siren, WI: 1.02 inches
Moose Lake, MN: 0.77 inches
McGregor, MN: 0.07 inches
Duluth Airport: 0.06 inches
Saginaw, MN: 0.03 inches
Minong, WI: 0.02 inches
Aitkin, MN: 0.02 inches
Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies were found in our area today. An upper level low was over northeast Iowa, this system brought some rain to eastern Minnesota especially this morning with a few showers occurring this afternoon mainly over parts of northwest Wisconsin. Highs today ranged from the 50s near Lake Superior to the mid 60s to upper 70s over the rest of the area, warmest temperatures in far northern Minnesota today.
A few rain showers will linger this evening over northwest Wisconsin and possibly into northeast Minnesota. Dry for the overnight hours with patchy fog possible. Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies tonight with lows in the upper 40s to around 60 degrees.
Will finally get rid of the strong lake wind on Wednesday which has been in place for the last few days, although will still have an east wind near Lake Superior it won’t be nearly as strong as it has been lately, so temperatures even near Lake Superior should climb into the 70s Wednesday afternoon while farther inland highs will range from the upper 70s to middle 80s. It’ll also be turning more humid on Wednesday with dew points climbing into the low to mid 60s by the afternoon.
Upper level low to our south this afternoon will continue on its slow E/NE track through Wednesday but following this system will be a cold front which moves into the Northland by late Wednesday afternoon. Model guidance continues to show a fair amount of instability developing near this front Wednesday afternoon/evening with CAPE of 1000 to ~2000 j/kg while 500mb winds increase to around 40 knots later in the day. Should see at least isolated coverage of showers and thunderstorms develop Wednesday afternoon across north central Minnesota, this activity would then move toward the south/east Wednesday evening. A low risk that a few of the storms could become strong to severe late Wednesday afternoon or evening with wind shear increasing to around 30 to 40 knots. Hail and gusty winds would be the main threats if stronger storms develop late Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday continues to look like a nice summer day around here with lower dew points compared to Wednesday while high temps range from the upper 70s to middle 80s!
A warm front approaches from the SW late Thursday night while the low level jet increases during the night which will help transport deeper moisture and instability up into our area — A complex of thunderstorms should develop Thursday night somewhere over the northern Plains, this complex of storms would then move east or possibly northeast/southeast through parts of the Northland Friday morning the way it looks now. Significant warming will be taking place aloft with 700mb temps +14C building NE early Friday morning, this could keep any thunderstorm complex from tracking too far south, instead it may only impact extreme northern Minnesota or along the Ontario/Minnesota border, but if the warmer temperatures or CAP is slower to arrive, that could cause the thunderstorm complex to affect more of the Northland. Stay tuned. With the amount of potential energy in the air for Friday morning there will be a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and some hail.
Friday afternoon looks capped with very warm temperatures aloft (700mb temps +14 to +18C!) If skies clear out enough after Friday morning, then highs Friday afternoon should have no problem reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s, maybe even a few mid 90s in southern portions of the Northland. Very high dew points are also expected on Friday ranging from the upper 60s to middle 70s. Heat index values ranging from the low 90s to around 100 degrees are possible in parts of the Northland for Friday afternoon, and heat headlines may be needed for that time period.
A cold front is then expected to move through the Northland Friday evening into Saturday. When the cap breaks, showers and thunderstorms should erupt sometime Friday night with lingering convection on Saturday, although this could end up more to our south/east depending on how quickly the cold front moves through. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday night and Saturday with favorable amounts of instability and shear in place.
Thunderstorms that develop Thursday night through Saturday will also be heavy rain producers thanks to the tropical moisture that will be in place. Localized flooding can’t be ruled out, but faster storm motions late this week compared to the last event back in mid June could diminish the flood threat at least a little bit, unless storms start to train over the same location for a few hours which would increase the potential of flooding.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers possible this evening. Low 49 to 54. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, wind decreasing to 10 to 15 mph late.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible late in the afternoon into the evening. Turning more humid. High 75 to 80. Wind variable at 6 to 13 mph. Afternoon dew point 62 to 66 degrees.
.Thursday… Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
Normal Temperatures for June 27
Sunrise Wednesday: 5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 9:07 PM CDT