Very nice summer weather continues Tuesday in the Northland. Brief cool down Wed-Thu, some showers possible Tue night-Wed; Warming up and turning more humid Fri-Sun

/Issued 7:55 PM CDT, Monday, July 30, 2018/

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

18z NAM 3km model 7.30.2018

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

18z NAM 3km model 7.30.2018

Simulated Radar Forecast valid from 4 PM Tuesday to 4 PM Wednesday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop Tuesday evening over northern Minnesota, this activity moves S/SE late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning but could weaken as it moves farther south.

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

18z NAM 3km model 7.30.2018

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z GEFS model 7.30.2018

Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid through August 15, 2018.

Blue colors:  Below normal temperatures
Orange and red colors:  Above normal temperatures

Potential is there for a warm first half of August per long range model guidance.

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z GEFS model 7.30.2018

500mb Height Anomaly Forecast valid through August 15, 2018.

Quite a shift in the upper level pattern if this verifies.  Upper level ridge which begins over the southwest U.S. breaks down or focuses more across the southern/central Plains, and at times this upper level ridge could build north into portions of the northern Plains and upper Midwest during the first two weeks of August.  Hot temperatures will be found near and underneath this upper level ridge across the northern Plains, central and southern Plains, portions of the Rockies, and possibly into the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.

Weather Synopsis

I don’t think it can get much nicer around here — Another warm day without much humidity.  Highs today were in the upper 70s to middle 80s.  Lots of sunshine this morning with a mix of sun/clouds this afternoon along with a few spotty showers and thunderstorms, but coverage of these showers was much less today compared to the last two days.

RAP model analysis from 7 PM this evening had a NW flow aloft covering the upper Midwest with a deepening upper level trough digging SE across the central Plains.  An upper level ridge remained anchored over the southwest U.S.

Clear to partly cloudy skies for tonight with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s, a few spots possibly dipping into the 40s.

Partly to mostly sunny skies Tuesday with highs in the 80s along with southwesterly winds gusting to around 20 to 25 mph.

A cold front moves south into northern Minnesota Tuesday evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing near that boundary.  Severe weather is not expected due to weak shear and generally light winds aloft, but a few strong storms are possible early Tuesday evening with small hail or gusty winds in far northern Minnesota.  Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will move farther south/east late Tuesday night into Wednesday with some showers expected for east central Minnesota, around Lake Superior and in northwest Wisconsin.

Temperatures Wednesday will be at their warmest early in the morning, ranging from the upper 50s to around 70 degrees, temperatures will fall through the day Wednesday, and will range from the lower 50s to middle 60s.

Dry and cool conditions continue Thursday with highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees.

The period from Friday through Sunday will feature warmer temperatures and muggier conditions as a warm front and cold front move into the upper Midwest along with increased instability and stronger winds aloft.  We should see a few rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across the region Friday through Sunday with at least some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms given the type of pattern that may develop, combined with the increased instability, wind shear and more favorable winds aloft.  Highs Friday, Saturday and Sunday are forecast to range from the upper 70s to upper 80s with dew points climbing into the 60s, possibly to around 70 degrees.

Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for July 31

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:47 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:42 PM CDT

Tim

Spotty showers/t-storms ending this evening. Highs near 80 with isolated showers possible Mon; 80s Tue; Much cooler Wed-Thu

/Issued 5:38 PM CDT, Sunday, July 29, 2018/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM 7.29.2018

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Radar loop ending at 6:40 PM CDT, Sunday, July 29, 2018.  Still seeing a few showers and thunderstorms drifting S/SE through parts of the Northland early this evening.  This activity should dissipate before 10 PM.

Source:  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Sunday, July 29, 2018 (Time:  ~11 AM to ~5:40 PM)

Sunshine this morning, followed by bubbling cumulus clouds and spotty storms this afternoon, very similar to Saturday’s weather.

Source:  http://www.sercc.com/

Temperature departure map for the week of July 22, 2018 — Below normal temps last week in most of the Northland, except in extreme northeast Minnesota (yellow and orange colors on map) where above normal temperatures were observed.  Note:  Greatest departures from average show up in blue and purple colors on map.

Source:  http://www.sercc.com/

Precipitation departure map for the week of July 22, 2018 — All of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin had below normal precipitation totals last week.
















Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

July 22 through July 28, 2018

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

7/22:  73 F/-4 degrees below normal
7/23:  81 F/+4 degrees above normal
7/24:  81 F/+4 degrees above normal
7/25:  76 F/-1 degree below normal
7/26:  70 F/-7 degrees below normal
7/27:  76 F/-1 degree below normal
7/28:  80 F/+3 degrees above normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

7/22:  56 F/Normal
7/23:  50 F/-6 degrees below normal
7/24:  60 F/+4 degrees above normal
7/25:  56 F/Normal
7/26:  55 F/-1 degree below normal
7/27:  49 F/-7 degrees below normal
7/28:  54 F/-2 degrees below normal

Note:  Average Temperature for the week of July 22:  65.5 degrees (-0.9 degrees below normal)  Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total Precipitation:  0.03 inches
Normal:  0.76 inches
Departure:  -0.73 inches below normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of July 22, 2018
Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  67.2 degrees
Departure:  -2.9 degrees below normal

Precipitation:  0.22 inches
Departure:  -0.58 inches below normal

Weather Synopsis

Not a whole lot of change in the weather pattern today as the upper Midwest remains in a NW flow aloft as an upper level low continues to churn over eastern Canada.  Chilly temps aloft combined with warmer air near the surface made the atmosphere unstable once again today which led to the formation of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Northland.  Heavy downpours and some cloud to ground lightning were common with the storms today with one report of small hail (Pea sized) at the Duluth Airport just before 4 PM today.  Similar to Saturday, the storms today didn’t last too long with little support to sustain the updrafts, winds aloft remain very weak, so the thunderstorms develop, spit out some lightning, heavy rain and perhaps some hail balls, then the storm weakens within about 20-30 minutes.

Spotty showers and thunderstorms will dissipate this evening followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies across the Northland with lows tonight in the 50s to lower 60s but 40s are likely once again in the typical cool spots.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies for Monday with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.  Still can’t rule out a few spotty afternoon showers or thunderstorms but coverage looks less tomorrow compared to what we saw the last 2 days.

Tuesday looks nice with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s! A mix of sun/clouds is expected.  A cold front approaches from the north by Tuesday evening, and we could see a few showers or thunderstorms develop Tuesday night as that front pushes south across the Northland. 

Some rain and showers could linger into Wednesday as a much cooler airmass advects into our area on gusty N/NE winds!  925mb temperatures are forecast to bottom out to between +4 to +9C which translates to Wednesday afternoon temperatures only in the 50s to lower 60s, and it might even be cooler than that in northeast Minnesota, will just have to wait and see.

Temps are expected to moderate once again late this week into next weekend, could have highs near or above 80 degrees, and it could also turn a little muggy at times, so I guess enjoy the midweek cool down if you don’t like warm/humid weather during the summer.

Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for July 30

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Monday:  5:46 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:43 PM CDT

Tim

Small hail and even a funnel cloud reported in the Northland today (Storm Reports from Saturday in this post) Spotty showers and t-storms this evening, and again Sunday afternoon-early evening. Warm Mon-Tue (Mainly dry)

/Issued 6:16 PM CDT, Saturday, July 28, 2018/

Note:  Little over 2 weeks ago since the last time Duluth had a day with thunder (July 12th) 
Today, July 28 puts an end to that streak.  So far this July has had 6 days with thunder which seems a little on the low side.

A good example of the type of storms we’re seeing this weekend can be found at the two radar images below.



Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 Day Cloud Phase Satellite loop for Saturday, July 28, 2018 (Loop time ~11 AM to ~6 PM)  Started the day with a lot of sunshine, but the afternoon saw bubbling cumulus clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms over northeast Minnesota and parts of northwest Wisconsin.  A similar setup should take place on Sunday.

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z Euro Ensemble model 7.28.2018

Two model images below are the 500mb height anomaly forecast valid through August 12, 2018 — Seeing some differences in the long range models as to how the upper level pattern sets up for the first two weeks of August. 

Euro Ensemble model (EPS) is a warmer solution for the upper Midwest with more of a west to slightly W-NW flow aloft, while the GEFS model has a more amplified look (Sharper NW flow aloft) which would lead to near to below average temperatures across the upper Midwest for early August.  Stay tuned!

Both models show an upper level ridge persisting over the southwest U.S. through August 12 with some expansion of this ridge to the N/NE at times.

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z GEFS model 7.28.2018

Local Storm Reports for July 28, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

5:23 PM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  1 SW Robinson, MN (St. Louis County)

4:45 PM:  Funnel Cloud.  3 W Melrude, MN (St. Louis County)  Small funnel cloud reported by the public.

4:35 PM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  1 W Side Lake, MN (St. Louis County)

4:30 PM:  Hail — 0.75 inch.  3 SSW Webb Lake, WI (Burnett County)

3:41 PM:  Hail — 0.75 inch.  4 S Kimberly, MN (Aitkin County)

3:24 PM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  1 SE Brimson, MN (St. Louis County)

3:19 PM:  Heavy Rain — 1.30 inch.  1 SE Brimson, MN (St. Louis County)  The duration of the heavy rain event was 45 minutes.

1:44 PM:  Hail — 0.50 inch.  4 NW Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  Pea and slightly larger sized hail.  Duration was about 12 minutes.

Weather Synopsis

A mixed bag of weather across the area today thanks to an upper level low pressure system spinning over eastern Canada.  Colder temperatures aloft (500mb temps -16C) combined with warmer temperatures near the surface helped to increase the instability today with CAPE of up to 1000 j/kg along with mid level lapse rates around 6.0 to 6.5 c/km per meso-analysis.  We saw quite a few showers and thunderstorms erupt in the Northland today due to the aforementioned ingredients that were in place today.  These storms were of the pulse variety though due to weak winds aloft and no wind shear, storms would develop, then spit out a rain cooled gust front/outflow boundary while basically collapsing within about 30 minutes time.  Outside of these showers, it was a warm day with highs reaching the 70s to lower 80s, although temperatures did cool off at times when showers moved through.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening, then diminish overnight into Sunday morning before redeveloping again Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening, otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies through Sunday with pleasantly cool temps tonight followed by mild temps for Sunday.  Lows tonight will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with a few of the typical cool spots possibly dipping into the 40s.  Highs Sunday will rebound into the mid 70s to lower 80s once again.

Monday and most of Tuesday are shaping up to be real nice.  Highs are forecast to range from the upper 70s to middle 80s with little or no rain expected.

A rather strong cold front pushes south through the Northland Tuesday night-Wednesday morning, this front will likely bring some rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the area with a brief cool down for the middle of the week with highs Wednesday and Thursday in the 60s with even cooler temps possible near Lake Superior, so the first two days of August look to be on the cool side!

Temperatures are expected to rebound once again late next week into next weekend the way it looks now with 80 degree temps and muggier conditions possibly returning to the Northland.

Normal Temperatures for July 29 at Duluth, Minnesota

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Sunday:  5:45 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   8:45 PM CDT

Tim

Dry tonight and not as cool as last night; Mild temps this weekend with spotty afternoon/evening showers/t-storms

/Issued 4:19 PM CDT, Friday, July 27, 2018/

Source:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu

Little chilly up north early Friday morning with a few cities in northeast Minnesota having their 2nd coldest minimum temperature on record for July 27 — See climate data below.














Source:  https://weather.us

12z European Computer Model 7.27.2018

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Friday, July 27, 2018 (Ending around 3:30 PM CT)  An upper level and surface area of low pressure continues to spin over eastern Canada today.

Source:  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z GEFS model 7.27.2018

Total Precipitation Anomaly Forecast valid through August 12, 2018

Green colors=Above normal precipitation
White=Near normal precipitation
Yellow/Brown colors=Below normal precipitation

Long range model trends continue to show a wetter pattern potentially developing across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes in early August.

Climate Data for July 27, 2018

Hibbing, Minnesota

2nd coldest low temperature on record for July 27 with a low Friday morning of 39 degrees.  The record low for July 27 is 34 degrees set in 2005.

International Falls, Minnesota

2nd coldest low temperature on record for July 27 with a low Friday morning of 40 degrees.  The record low for July 27 is 36 degrees set in 1971.

Climate Data for July 26, 2018

Brainerd, Minnesota

3rd coldest high temperature on record for July 26 with a high on Thursday of 68 degrees.  The record coldest high for July 27 is 66 degrees set in 1901.

Hibbing, Minnesota

4th coldest high temperature on record for July 26 with a high on Thursday of 67 degrees.  The record coldest high for July 27 is 59 degrees set in 2013.

Note:  Low temperature of 49 degrees at the Duluth Airport Friday morning, July 27 is the first time this month with a low temperature below 50 F, and the first time since June 26 (About a month ago) with a low temperature below 50 F.

Weather Synopsis

Milder temperatures returned to the Northland today after yesterday’s brief cool down.  Highs today were mainly in the low to mid 70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  The weather pattern hasn’t changed much since Thursday with an upper level and surface area of low pressure still covering eastern Ontario and Quebec Provinces  in eastern Canada — N/NW flow aloft is in place over the upper Midwest between the low over eastern Canada and high pressure which was over the northern Plains today.

A few spotty showers are possible this evening in far northern Minnesota, otherwise dry tonight under partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows falling into the 40s and 50s.

Saturday and Sunday will feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees.  Isolated to scattered coverage showers and a few thunderstorms are expected both days with activity tending to peak during the mid to late afternoon into the early evening hours.  Severe weather is not expected this weekend, but brief downpours and occasional lightning will accompany these storms with some small hail and or gusty winds possible in the strongest storms.

Monday looks dry with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Mild temps should continue next Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the northwest — Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will return to the Northland late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning as that front moves through the area.

Normal Temperatures for July 28 at Duluth, Minnesota

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Saturday:  5:44 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:46 PM CDT

Tim

Cool tonight! Sun/cloud mix, dry with highs in the 70s Friday; Spotty weekend storms possible with mild temps 70s to ~80 F

/Issued 6:21 PM CDT, Thursday, July 26, 2018/

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

HRRR model (21z run, 7.26.2018)
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Surface and upper level area of low pressure N/NE of Lake Superior late this afternoon with cyclonic flow occurring west of this system today.  N/NW wind, weak cold air advection, clouds with isolated to scattered showers over the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes today.












Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Thursday, July 26, 2018.

Quite an impressive area of low pressure spinning north of Lake Superior today.












Source:  https://lab.weathermodels.com

Heaviest rainfall on Wednesday was focused in parts of northwest Wisconsin where rainfall totals of 0.25 to 0.50″+ were reported.  Much more isolated showers with much less rainfall across northern Minnesota on Wednesday.















Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

European Computer Model (12z run from 7.25.2018)
















Rainfall Totals for July 25-26, 2018 from 7 AM to 7 AM
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

7.2 SE Iron River, WI:  1.08 in
3 S Ashland, WI:  0.65 in
Ashland, WI:  0.55 in
7.8 SSW Poplar, WI:  0.40 in
Winter, WI:  0.37 in
4 W Clam Lake, WI:  0.36 in
Butternut, WI:  0.25 in
Hayward, WI:  0.17 in
International Falls, MN:  0.13 in
Babbitt, MN:  0.10 in
Northome, MN:  0.05 in
Duluth Airport:  0.01 in

Weather Synopsis

Note:  The Duluth Airport hit 70 degrees today (July 26) So the coldest high so far this month remains 69 degrees on July 1st, also every date but one so far this month has had a high temp of at least 70 degrees, the only date with a high temp cooler than 70 degrees (July 1st)

Isolated showers will continue to move S/SE through parts of the Northland through mid-evening, then mainly dry conditions overnight through Friday.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight with partly to mostly sunny skies Friday.  Lows tonight in the 40s and 50s, possibly a few 30s in the typical cold spots across northeast Minnesota.  Warmest temps will be found near Lake Superior due to the warming influence of Lake Superior.

Highs Friday mainly in the 70s, and those 70s will likely carry over into Saturday and Sunday.

Should stay dry on Friday, but a few showers and thunderstorms could develop at times Saturday and Sunday with brief downpours possible if you get underneath one of those storms.

The pattern through Sunday will feature high pressure over the northern Plains with an upper level low over eastern Canada — NW flow aloft will remain in place across the upper Midwest between the high to our west and low to our northeast.  A couple of disturbances rotating around the upper low could impact the upper Midwest this weekend, and with colder temps aloft and warmer temps near the surface, the atmosphere will become a bit unstable peaking during the afternoon/early evening hours, that is when we could see a few showers and thunderstorms develop in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Normal Temperatures for July 27 at Duluth, Minnesota

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Friday:  5:43 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:47 PM CDT

Tim