/Issued 7:55 PM CDT, Monday, July 30, 2018/
Source: http://www.pivotalweather.com
18z NAM 3km model 7.30.2018
Source: http://www.pivotalweather.com
18z NAM 3km model 7.30.2018
Simulated Radar Forecast valid from 4 PM Tuesday to 4 PM Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop Tuesday evening over northern Minnesota, this activity moves S/SE late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning but could weaken as it moves farther south.
Source: http://www.pivotalweather.com
18z NAM 3km model 7.30.2018
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
12z GEFS model 7.30.2018
Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid through August 15, 2018.
Blue colors: Below normal temperatures
Orange and red colors: Above normal temperatures
Potential is there for a warm first half of August per long range model guidance.
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
12z GEFS model 7.30.2018
500mb Height Anomaly Forecast valid through August 15, 2018.
Quite a shift in the upper level pattern if this verifies. Upper level ridge which begins over the southwest U.S. breaks down or focuses more across the southern/central Plains, and at times this upper level ridge could build north into portions of the northern Plains and upper Midwest during the first two weeks of August. Hot temperatures will be found near and underneath this upper level ridge across the northern Plains, central and southern Plains, portions of the Rockies, and possibly into the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.
Weather Synopsis
I don’t think it can get much nicer around here — Another warm day without much humidity. Highs today were in the upper 70s to middle 80s. Lots of sunshine this morning with a mix of sun/clouds this afternoon along with a few spotty showers and thunderstorms, but coverage of these showers was much less today compared to the last two days.
RAP model analysis from 7 PM this evening had a NW flow aloft covering the upper Midwest with a deepening upper level trough digging SE across the central Plains. An upper level ridge remained anchored over the southwest U.S.
Clear to partly cloudy skies for tonight with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s, a few spots possibly dipping into the 40s.
Partly to mostly sunny skies Tuesday with highs in the 80s along with southwesterly winds gusting to around 20 to 25 mph.
A cold front moves south into northern Minnesota Tuesday evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing near that boundary. Severe weather is not expected due to weak shear and generally light winds aloft, but a few strong storms are possible early Tuesday evening with small hail or gusty winds in far northern Minnesota. Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will move farther south/east late Tuesday night into Wednesday with some showers expected for east central Minnesota, around Lake Superior and in northwest Wisconsin.
Temperatures Wednesday will be at their warmest early in the morning, ranging from the upper 50s to around 70 degrees, temperatures will fall through the day Wednesday, and will range from the lower 50s to middle 60s.
Dry and cool conditions continue Thursday with highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
The period from Friday through Sunday will feature warmer temperatures and muggier conditions as a warm front and cold front move into the upper Midwest along with increased instability and stronger winds aloft. We should see a few rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across the region Friday through Sunday with at least some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms given the type of pattern that may develop, combined with the increased instability, wind shear and more favorable winds aloft. Highs Friday, Saturday and Sunday are forecast to range from the upper 70s to upper 80s with dew points climbing into the 60s, possibly to around 70 degrees.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for July 31
High: 77
Low: 56
Sunrise Tuesday: 5:47 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 8:42 PM CDT
Tim