/Issued 6:33 PM CDT, Saturday, June 30, 2018/
18z NAM model 500mb Vorticity forecast loop from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM Sunday — Our next round of rain will arrive as that energy over Nebraska moves northeast through the upper Midwest on Sunday, it’s a fairly strong but quick moving system, and should have a fair amount of lift associated with it as it swings through our area on Sunday, bottom line expect some rain on Sunday especially in eastern and northeast Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin.
12z HRW WRF-NSSL model Simulated Radar Forecast valid from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM Sunday. Majority of the computer models agree on the rain moving southwest to northeast across the Northland with the rain starting Sunday morning, probably between 4-8 AM, the rain tapers off Sunday afternoon (mid or late afternoon hours) Heaviest rain expected to fall in parts of northwest Wisconsin, possibly into far eastern Minnesota.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite image for June 30, 2018, ending at 6:52 PM.
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms stretching from Oklahoma to upper Michigan this evening while more energy (note the spin) comes out of Wyoming.
Severe weather reports map from 7 AM Friday, June 29 to 7 AM Saturday, June 30, 2018.
Local Storm Reports for June 30, 2018
•3:35 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 44 mph. Eveleth-Virginia Airport (St. Louis County)
•3:35 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 38 mph. Duluth Sky Harbor Airport.
•3:25 AM: Hail — 1.00 inch. 1 SSE Cloquet, MN (Carlton County) Quarter sized hail.
•3:07 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 40 mph. 1 S Hill City, MN (Aitkin County)
•2:56 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage — Barnum, MN (Carlton County) Many trees down in the town of Barnum. One large tree estimated 16 inch diameter or larger.
•2:52 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 39 mph. Rice Lake N.W.R. (Aitkin County)
•2:06 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 50 mph. 2 W Woodrow, MN (Crow Wing County)
•2:00 AM: Hail — 0.25 inch. 2 S Emily, MN (Crow Wing County)
•1:42 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage — Crosby, MN (Crow Wing County) Multiple 6 to 8 inch diameter trees down in Crosby.
•1:36 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 43 mph. 3 WNW Woodrow, MN (Crow Wing County)
•1:26 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage — 2 ESE Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County) Eight trees down, some uprooted and snapped. A shed was destroyed, and a corral fence knocked down.
•1:25 AM: Hail — 0.25 inch. 1 S Breezy Point, MN (Crow Wing County) Duration of the hail event was 3 minutes.
•1:25 AM: Hail — 0.88 inch. 3 ENE East Gull Lake, MN (Crow Wing County)
•1:21 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage — 3 WSW Shephard, MN (Crow Wing County) Multiple large trees blown down, some uprooted and snapped. A shed was damaged. Damage extends to the northeast by a couple miles.
•1:00 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage — Pequot Lakes, MN (Crow Wing County) Two large oak trees down on Olson St. Many trees down around Pequot Lakes.
•8:55 PM (6/29/18) Hail — 0.50 inch. 3 W Carlton, MN (Carlton County)
The main cold front has pushed into west central portions of Wisconsin this afternoon while a secondary boundary, perhaps a moisture gradient type front with humid air ahead of it, slightly drier air behind it centered over northern and west central Minnesota late this afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms have erupted this afternoon from parts of southern Minnesota to central and northeast Wisconsin into upper Michigan, while here in our area it was mostly dry today except in western-northern areas where there have been a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Still warm and muggy out there with highs today in the 80s with 70s in northern Minnesota. Cooler closer to Lake Superior, although the lake breeze weakened considerably this afternoon allowing winds to shift to the west below the hill in Duluth. Dew points this afternoon ranged from the mid 60s to low 70s so still very tropical!
A few showers and thunderstorms could continue to pop up at times in the Northland most of the night but widespread rain is not expected tonight. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies.
A cold front will remain over western Wisconsin through Sunday morning before it gets pushed farther toward the south/east by Sunday evening, this will be due to a wave of low pressure which will head northeast out of Nebraska, tracking along the aforementioned boundary through Sunday.
A more organized batch of rain is forecast to affect most of northeast and eastern Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin on Sunday as that energy comes out of Nebraska — This system will be tapping into an area of high moisture with PWATS ranging from 1.70 to 2.25 inches, heavy downpours are possible Sunday favoring northwest Wisconsin and perhaps far eastern Minnesota the way it looks now. Note: There isn’t much instability in our area on Sunday so thunderstorms should be few and far between if any happen at all.
With the rain and extensive cloud cover into mid afternoon Sunday, highs will be cooler compared to the last few days with highs Sunday in the 60s and 70s although a few western locations could approach 80 degrees where less rain and a bit more sun is forecast.
The entire Northland warms up again on Monday with widespread 80s expected. Not quite as humid with dew points in the 50s and 60s. Could see a few showers and thunderstorms develop later in the day or Monday night as a warm front approaches from the southwest.
Note: We start the month of July on Sunday!
Here are the climate averages for July at Duluth, Minnesota
Temperature: 65.8 degrees
Precipitation: 3.85 inches
Warmest July on record: 71.9 degrees in 2006
Coldest July on record: 59.4 degrees in 1992
Wettest July on record: 10.83 inches in 1909
Driest July on record: 0.47 inches in 1875
Normal high on the 1st: 75 F
Normal high on the 31st: 77 F
Normal low on the 1st: 54 F
Normal low on the 31st: 56 F
Number of days with a high temperature of at least 80 F: 11
Greatest number of 80 degree days: 25 (July 2012)
Fewest number of 80 degree days: 0 (July 1992)
Astronomical Data for July
Sunrise on the 1st: 5:18 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st: 5:47 AM CDT
Sunset on the 1st: 9:07 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st: 8:41 PM CDT
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers possible. Humid. Low 60 to 65. Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Sunday… Rain developing (6-9 AM) Rain ending in the afternoon (between 2-4 PM) Mostly cloudy with some clearing late in the afternoon. Cooler. High 67 to 72. Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 80 to 85. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.