/Issued 6:22 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 25, 2018/
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from July 25, 2018 (Loop time: ~12 PM to 5:47 PM)
Nice looking vort max dropping SE out of northeast North Dakota/northwest Minnesota this afternoon with scattered strong to severe thunderstorms erupting late this afternoon ahead of this disturbance from southern Minnesota to northern Wisconsin with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern Minnesota.
Model run: 12z 7.25.2018. ECMWF
Model run: 12z 7.25.2018. GEFS
500mb Forecast valid through August 10, 2018.
Another pattern change is possible in early August as we see the northwest flow aloft relax a bit while turning more to the west/northwest — This could lead to a period of warmer/above normal temperatures returning to the upper Midwest. One thing that doesn’t change looking out the next 2 weeks is the persistent upper level ridge/intense heat that will continue to blanket the southwest U.S.
A cooler airmass is heading into the Northland. An upper level low (5640 meters) was over western Ontario Province late this afternoon with 850mb temperatures of +6 to +8C northwest of our area, these cooler temperatures are heading SE with a decent push of cold air advection moving into our area tonight.
Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies were found in our area today with highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s. We’ve seen scattered showers and thunderstorms develop late this afternoon in northwest Wisconsin with a few of those storms turning severe thanks to about 1000 J/kg of CAPE along with 30 to 40 knots of shear along with a decent amount of lift provided by a cold front and also due to the influence of an approaching disturbance from the NW.
Scattered showers will continue to pass through the Northland this evening with a risk for stronger thunderstorms confined to parts of northwest Wisconsin mainly before 8 PM. Mostly cloudy skies tonight with lows in the lower 50s to around 60 degrees.
Mostly cloudy skies (Few peeks of sun) on the way for Thursday with highs mainly in the 60s. Patchy drizzle or light rain showers are possible along with northwest winds gusting 15 to 25 mph while 850mb temps fall to around +6C, certainly a taste of early fall weather, but this won’t last very long.
Mainly dry on Friday with highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s.
Highs Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be in the 70s, and will likely be dealing with a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening hours Saturday and Sunday. A few of the storms could be on the strong side. Note: Will have plenty of dry hours this weekend, but also a risk of a downpour or two when or if a storm hits your location.
Normal Temperatures for July 26 at Duluth, Minnesota
Sunrise Thursday: 5:42 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 8:48 PM CDT