/Issued 6:16 PM CDT, Saturday, July 28, 2018/
Note: Little over 2 weeks ago since the last time Duluth had a day with thunder (July 12th)
Today, July 28 puts an end to that streak. So far this July has had 6 days with thunder which seems a little on the low side.
A good example of the type of storms we’re seeing this weekend can be found at the two radar images below.
Goes-16 Day Cloud Phase Satellite loop for Saturday, July 28, 2018 (Loop time ~11 AM to ~6 PM) Started the day with a lot of sunshine, but the afternoon saw bubbling cumulus clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms over northeast Minnesota and parts of northwest Wisconsin. A similar setup should take place on Sunday.
12z Euro Ensemble model 7.28.2018
Two model images below are the 500mb height anomaly forecast valid through August 12, 2018 — Seeing some differences in the long range models as to how the upper level pattern sets up for the first two weeks of August.
Euro Ensemble model (EPS) is a warmer solution for the upper Midwest with more of a west to slightly W-NW flow aloft, while the GEFS model has a more amplified look (Sharper NW flow aloft) which would lead to near to below average temperatures across the upper Midwest for early August. Stay tuned!
Both models show an upper level ridge persisting over the southwest U.S. through August 12 with some expansion of this ridge to the N/NE at times.
12z GEFS model 7.28.2018
Local Storm Reports for July 28, 2018
5:23 PM: Hail — 0.25 inch. 1 SW Robinson, MN (St. Louis County)
4:45 PM: Funnel Cloud. 3 W Melrude, MN (St. Louis County) Small funnel cloud reported by the public.
4:35 PM: Hail — 0.25 inch. 1 W Side Lake, MN (St. Louis County)
4:30 PM: Hail — 0.75 inch. 3 SSW Webb Lake, WI (Burnett County)
3:41 PM: Hail — 0.75 inch. 4 S Kimberly, MN (Aitkin County)
3:24 PM: Hail — 0.25 inch. 1 SE Brimson, MN (St. Louis County)
3:19 PM: Heavy Rain — 1.30 inch. 1 SE Brimson, MN (St. Louis County) The duration of the heavy rain event was 45 minutes.
1:44 PM: Hail — 0.50 inch. 4 NW Two Harbors, MN (Lake County) Pea and slightly larger sized hail. Duration was about 12 minutes.
A mixed bag of weather across the area today thanks to an upper level low pressure system spinning over eastern Canada. Colder temperatures aloft (500mb temps -16C) combined with warmer temperatures near the surface helped to increase the instability today with CAPE of up to 1000 j/kg along with mid level lapse rates around 6.0 to 6.5 c/km per meso-analysis. We saw quite a few showers and thunderstorms erupt in the Northland today due to the aforementioned ingredients that were in place today. These storms were of the pulse variety though due to weak winds aloft and no wind shear, storms would develop, then spit out a rain cooled gust front/outflow boundary while basically collapsing within about 30 minutes time. Outside of these showers, it was a warm day with highs reaching the 70s to lower 80s, although temperatures did cool off at times when showers moved through.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening, then diminish overnight into Sunday morning before redeveloping again Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening, otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies through Sunday with pleasantly cool temps tonight followed by mild temps for Sunday. Lows tonight will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with a few of the typical cool spots possibly dipping into the 40s. Highs Sunday will rebound into the mid 70s to lower 80s once again.
Monday and most of Tuesday are shaping up to be real nice. Highs are forecast to range from the upper 70s to middle 80s with little or no rain expected.
A rather strong cold front pushes south through the Northland Tuesday night-Wednesday morning, this front will likely bring some rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the area with a brief cool down for the middle of the week with highs Wednesday and Thursday in the 60s with even cooler temps possible near Lake Superior, so the first two days of August look to be on the cool side!
Temperatures are expected to rebound once again late next week into next weekend the way it looks now with 80 degree temps and muggier conditions possibly returning to the Northland.
Normal Temperatures for July 29 at Duluth, Minnesota
Sunrise Sunday: 5:45 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday: 8:45 PM CDT