/Issued 4:00 PM CDT, Friday, August 3, 2018/
Showers and some thunderstorms continue in parts of east central Minnesota late this afternoon with movement to the east, although there appears to be a slight northeast shift in this area of precipitation late this afternoon.
HRRR model 20z run
Simulated Radar forecast valid from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM Saturday.
Goes-16 Infrared Satellite loop for Friday, August 3, 2018 — Loop time from 10:12 AM to 4:37 PM. Scattered thunderstorms, some strong to severe have been occurring today from central Minnesota to northern and central Wisconsin (Colder cloud tops in yellow, orange and red colors on this map)
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible at times through Saturday in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Tonight’s severe weather risk area is roughly along and west of a line from International Falls to Hayward.
Slight risk of severe thunderstorms covers parts of north central Minnesota on Saturday, the slight risk area is roughly along and west of a line from Crane Lake to Brainerd.
Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Local Storm Reports for Friday, August 3, 2018
3:28 PM: Hail — 0.25 inch. 2 E Kimball, WI (Iron County)
2:49 PM: Hail — 0.75 inch. 1 SSW Saxon, WI (Iron County)
1:56 PM: Hail — 0.50 inch. 5 W Washburn, WI (Bayfield County)
1:27 PM: Hail — 0.75 inch. 1 N Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)
1:20 PM: Hail — 1.50 inch. 1 NNW Prentice, WI (Price County) Ping Pong ball sized hail.
1:19 PM: Hail — 1.00 inch. Prentice, WI (Price County) Quarter sized hail.
12:47 PM: Hail — 1.00 inch. 2 SSE Kennan, WI (Price County) Quarter sized hail.
12:10 PM: Hail — 0.25 inch. 1 WSW Leader, MN (Cass County)
A warm front was draped from near the North Dakota-South Dakota border into south central Minnesota at 4 PM today. Strong warm air advection along with a SW low level jet to around 30 knots north of this warm front today helped to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms from parts of north central into east central Minnesota and in parts of northwest Wisconsin, a few of the storms were strong to severe at times today. Cooler than normal temperatures continued across the Northland to the north of the warm front today with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s with temps in the lower 60s near Lake Superior. Hot temps on the other side of the warm front today with highs in the mid 90s to low 100s in parts of the Dakotas including 101 degrees at Bismarck, ND! Meanwhile in southern Minnesota highs got into the 80s and lower 90s this afternoon.
Tonight and Saturday morning: The warm front over southern Minnesota late this afternoon is forecast to lift slowly N/NE while moving through the Northland. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop along and north of this front. Higher instability with CAPE of 1500 to nearly 4000 J/kg in western-southern Minnesota is expected to lift farther to the north during the night, this combined with steep mid level lapse rates of 7.0 to 8.0 c/km will help to kick off additional storms through Saturday morning. Heavy rainfall and lightning will be the main threats out of the storms, but there is a chance for hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms, favoring western-southern portions of the Northland.
Saturday afternoon/evening: Warm front should exit to the north by Saturday afternoon but disturbances moving up from the SW will cause additional scattered showers and thunderstorms. Clouds could linger much of the day which would keep instability on the low side across our area, but a few strong to severe thunderstorms are still possible, especially favoring western portions of the area. Otherwise expect heavy downpours and some lightning with the storms Saturday afternoon and evening. Note: If there is less rain and more sun on Saturday, then the potential for strong to severe storms would increase with warmer temps and higher instability.
Lows tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with highs Saturday ranging from around 70 to the lower 80s, it will also be more humid on Saturday with dew points in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
Note: The better day of the weekend looks like it’ll be Sunday. A cold front approaches from the NW with the potential for a rather unstable atmosphere ahead of this front, but a strong upper level jet to around 100 knots is forecast to be over the Northland, and this may help prevent thunderstorms from developing in our area with the better chances for storms farther south across southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin. Highs Sunday are forecast to be in the 80s with dew points ranging from around 60 to 70 degrees!
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for August 4
Sunrise Saturday: 5:52 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 8:36 PM CDT