/Issued 5:42 PM CDT, Monday, August 6, 2018/
18z NAM 3km model
18z HRRR model — Simulated Radar Forecast from 7 AM Tuesday to 10 PM Tuesday.
There is the potential for a few spotty showers or thunderstorms on Tuesday especially over southern portions of the Northland (east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin)
18z NAM 3km model. 8.6.2018
A cold front will move through the Northland late Wednesday afternoon/evening with a warm and potentially humid/unstable airmass developing ahead of this boundary which could help in developing a few spotty showers and thunderstorms across the Northland Wednesday afternoon or evening.
Check out these 24-hour temperature changes between Noon today (August 6) and Noon Sunday (August 5) Some locations across the Northland were around 15 to 20 degrees cooler earlier this afternoon compared to early Sunday afternoon, it was also a lot less humid today with dew points only in the 50s!
12z Euro Ensemble model (EPS) 8.6.2018
Overall the next 2 weeks or so look drier than normal across most of the northern Plains, upper Midwest and western Great Lakes, but it only takes one or two thunderstorms at your location to bust a long range forecast, and tilt you above average in the rainfall department.
12z Euro Ensemble model (EPS) 8.6.2018
Note: Normal highs in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin are generally in the mid to upper 70s from August 8 through 13.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop and radar imagery for Monday, August 6, 2018 (Loop time: 11:32 AM to 5:17 PM)
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have moved into parts of western Minnesota this afternoon but this activity is sliding southeast and won’t impact the Northland this evening.
12z GEFS model 8.6.2018
500mb Height Anomaly Forecast valid through August 22, 2018. Seeing a bit of a transition in the upper level wind pattern which starts out out from the northwest, but transitions to more of a westerly flow toward mid month. Bottom line is that the next 2 weeks or so look warmer than average for the most part, yes will have a couple cool days mixed in, but the overall trend is for above average temperatures across the Northland at least through mid month.
Quite an amplified jet stream pattern last week which helped in producing a large area of below normal temperatures from the central Plains to the upper Midwest while the heat remained over the western-southwest U.S. and also over the northeast U.S.
Temperature Departure map for the week of July 29, 2018 — Below average temperatures last week in all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, greatest departures from normal in blue and purple.
Precipitation Departure map for the week of July 29, 2018 — Drier than normal in northern Minnesota and in parts of northwest Wisconsin (Yellow and orange area on map) The rest of the Northland had near to above average precipitation totals last week.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
July 29 through August 4, 2018
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
7/29: 81 F/+4 degrees above normal
7/30: 84 F/+7 degrees above normal
7/31: 85 F/+8 degrees above normal
8/1: 71 F/-5 degrees below normal
8/2: 64 F/-12 degrees below normal
8/3: 69 F/-7 degrees below normal
8/4: 72 F/-4 degrees below normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
7/29: 52 F/-4 degrees below normal
7/30: 55 F/-1 degree below normal
7/31: 60 F/+4 degrees above normal
8/1: 52 F/-4 degrees below normal
8/2: 51 F/-5 degrees below normal
8/3: 48 F/-8 degrees below normal
8/4: 58 F/+2 degrees above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of July 29: 64.4 degrees (-1.7 degrees below normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 1.67 inches
Normal: 0.78 inches
Departure: +0.89 inches above normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of July 29, 2018
Temperature: 66.5 degrees
Departure: -3.1 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 0.65 inches
Departure: -0.18 inches below normal
Temperatures were certainly a lot cooler today compared to Sunday, but the bigger story I think was the much lower dew point temperatures today compared to the amazon type humidity we had around here on Sunday. Highs today ranged from the mid 60s to upper 70s with the coolest temps in far northern Minnesota where clouds lingered most of the day while the rest of the area saw a mix of clouds/sun which gave way to more sun than clouds this afternoon.
Clear to partly cloudy skies expected for tonight with patchy fog possible late. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s but the typical cold spots up in northern Minnesota will probably dip into the 30s, and there may even be a little patchy frost up north early Tuesday morning.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday. Spotty showers or thunderstorms are possible mainly over southern portions of the area. Highs will be in the 70s, maybe touching 80 degrees in western locations. Little cooler near Lake Superior.
A cold front approaches from the NW late Wednesday afternoon — Looks warm ahead of this front with 850mb temps forecast to be around +22C, 925mb temps to around +25C! Should have no problem reaching the low to mid 80s for highs on Wednesday, and it may even be a little warmer than that if we can get enough sunshine! Dew points will also come up as moisture pools near the cold frontal boundary Wednesday afternoon, dew points in the mid 60s look to develop in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for Wednesday. The atmosphere could become somewhat unstable during the afternoon/early evening, and if we can get enough lift to occur with the approaching cold front, then we could see a few showers and thunderstorms develop late Wednesday afternoon.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for August 7
Sunrise Tuesday: 5:56 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 8:32 PM CDT