Monthly Archives: September 2018

/Issued 4:46 PM CDT, Sunday, September 30, 2018/

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Source:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z European model (ECMWF)  9-30-2018

Looks increasingly likely that will get some thunderstorms over parts of the Northland late Tuesday night into Wednesday as low pressure approaches from South Dakota.

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z GEFS model 9-30-2018

Temperature Anomaly forecast valid thru October 16, 2018 — Trough out west, ridge out east with potentially an active storm track from the Rockies to the Great Lakes between the real cold air over the northern Rockies and very warm temperatures across the southern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, southern/eastern portions of the U.S.

Heads up for late next weekend into early the following week for potentially a significant snow event for the northern Rockies and possibly the northern Plains.

Source:  https://hprcc.unl.edu

Temperature departure map for the week of September 23, 2018.

Source:  https://hprcc.unl.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of September 23, 2018.

October Climate Normals for Duluth, Minnesota

Temperature:  43.2 degrees
Precipitation:  2.85 inches
Snowfall:  2.3 inches

Warmest October on record:  55.9 degrees set in 1963
Coldest October on record:  33.5 degrees set in 1917

Wettest October on record:  7.53 inches set in 1949
Driest October on record:  0.09 inches set in 1895

Snowiest October on record:  14.0 inches set in 1933

Normal high on the 1st:  58 degrees
Normal high on the 31st:  44 degrees

Normal low on the 1st:  40 degrees
Normal low on the 31st:  30 degrees

•October averages 2 days with snowfall (At least 0.1 inch accumulation)  Most was 8 days set in 1925 and 1959.

•October averages 2 days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees.  Most was 12 days set in 1963.

Note:  October 2017 was the 3rd snowiest October on record with 11.1 inches of snow.

Astronomical data for October

Sunrise on the 1st:  7:07 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st:  7:49 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st:  6:48 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st:  5:54 PM CDT

…It’s been a chilly stretch across the Northland — See stats below…

September 29

Ashland, Wisconsin

Record coldest high temperature for September 29 with a high on Saturday of 45 degrees.  The previous record cold high for September 29 was 48 degrees set in 1965, tied in 1993 and 2006.

Brainerd, Minnesota

2nd coldest high temperature on record for September 29 with a high on Saturday of 42 degrees.  The record cold high for September 29 is 36 degrees set in 1899.

Hibbing, Minnesota

Tied for 2nd coldest high temperature on record for September 29 with a high on Saturday of 43 degrees.  The record cold high for September 29 is 41 degrees set in 1939.

Duluth, Minnesota

Tied for 2nd coldest high temperature on record for September 29 with a high on Saturday of 44 degrees.  The record cold high for September 29 is 43 degrees set in 1876 and tied in 1972.

International Falls, Minnesota

Tied for 5th coldest high temperature on record for September 29 with a high on Saturday of 47 degrees.  The record cold high for September 29 is 40 degrees set in 1908.

September 28

International Falls, Minnesota

4th coldest high temperature on record for September 28 with a high on Friday of 44 degrees.  The record cold high for September 28 is 38 degrees set in 1908.

Brainerd, Minnesota

4th coldest high temperature on record for September 28 with a high on Friday of 48 degrees.  The record cold high for September 28 is 43 degrees set in 1965.

Hibbing, Minnesota

4th coldest high temperature on record for September 28 with a high on Friday of 46 degrees.  The record cold high for September 28 is 42 degrees set in 1942.

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

•Low temperature of 30 degrees on September 29 was the first time since May 20 with a sub-freezing temperature (31 degrees)

•High temperature of 44 degrees on September 29 was the coldest high temperature since April 27 (40 degrees)

Note:  Even though we’ve had a much cooler 2nd half of September, the month will finish above average in the temperature department due to the abnormally warm temperatures that occurred earlier in the month.

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

September 23-29, 2018

High Temperature/Departure from Normal

9/23:  53 F/-9 degrees below normal
9/24:  70 F/+9 degrees above normal
9/25:  53 F/-8 degrees below normal
9/26:  57 F/-4 degrees below normal
9/27:  56 F/-4 degrees below normal
9/28:  50 F-10 degrees below normal
9/29:  44 F/-15 degrees below normal

Low Temperature/Departure from Normal

9/23:  46 F/+3 degrees above normal
9/24:  51 F/+8 degrees above normal
9/25:  43 F/+1 degree above normal
9/26:  40 F/-2 degrees below normal
9/27:  44 F/+2 degrees above normal
9/28:  36 F/-5 degrees below normal
9/29:  30 F/-11 degrees below normal

Note:  Average temperature for the week of September 23:  48.1 degrees (-3.1 degrees below normal) Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total Precipitation:  0.57 inches
Normal:  0.91 inches
Departure:  -0.34 inches below normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of September 23, 2018
Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  51.2 degrees
Departure:  -3.1 degrees below normal

Precipitation:  0.36 inches
Departure:  -0.39 inches below normal

Weather Synopsis

Temperatures warmed up a bit south of Highway 2 today while it was another cool day north of Highway 2.  Temperatures this afternoon ranged from the 50s near Lake Superior, east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin to the mid 40s in northern Minnesota.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies covered the Northland today with some clouds moving SE out of northern Minnesota with more clouds moving in from the west per Goes-16 visible satellite imagery.

RAP model analysis from late this Sunday afternoon shows a W-SW flow aloft over the upper Midwest with a shortwave trough moving E-NE across the northern Rockies.  Strong winds aloft with a 130 knot jet was located just N/NE of the Northland.

[Tonight]

Partly to mostly cloudy skies for the Northland tonight.  A band of FGEN in the 700mb layer was evident across central Minnesota this afternoon per meso-analysis, there has been a band of mostly virga or light rain showers underneath this FGEN band today from central Minnesota to west-central Wisconsin, this area of virga or light showers could lift a bit to the north tonight, but for the most part we’re looking at mainly dry conditions in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with lows ranging from around 30 degrees to the lower 40s.

[Monday]

A cool day ahead with generally mostly cloudy skies.  Best chance for some rain looks to be from east-central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin with a few light showers possible for the Iron Range, Arrowhead and Borderland areas.  Low pressure and warm front will remain well to our south on Monday with the deeper moisture, heavier showers and thunderstorms setting up over parts of Iowa, Illinois, southeast Minnesota and southern Wisconsin.  Highs on Monday will mainly be in the 40s, but a few locations around Bigfork and International Falls could get into the low 50s.

[Looking Ahead]

The pattern this week into the middle of next week looks rather active with a cold trough covering the Rockies and a warm ridge from the southern to eastern U.S. Several low pressure systems are forecast to track E/NE out of the Rockies and Plains into the middle of next week, each one of these systems could bring rain to the Northland depending on their tracks, also there will be a risk for some thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday as a push of warmer, more humid and unstable air pushes north into eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 1

High:  58 degrees
Low:   40 degrees

Sunrise Monday:  7:07 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   6:48 PM CDT

Tim

/Issued 6:09 PM CDT, Thursday, September 27, 2018/

Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Frost advisory in effect for western portions of the Northland from 1 AM to 9 AM Friday (Blue shaded area on map)  Low temps in the mid 30s with widespread frost expected early Friday morning.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Thursday, September 27, 2018.

Loop time:  11:37 AM to 4:32 PM CDT

A cold upper level trough is digging S/SE into the Northland this afternoon with scattered showers along with a few thunderstorms capable of producing small hail popping up over parts of the area.

Source:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM-Nest model 9-27-2018

Simulated Radar forecast valid from 7 AM Friday to 10 PM Friday.

Blue is snow; Green is rain — Another day with scattered shower coverage on the way for Friday, and some of the precipitation will likely fall as snow in northern Minnesota.

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

500mb height anomaly forecast valid through October 13, 2018.

Upper air pattern isn’t forecast to change a whole lot during the next 2 weeks with generally west or northwest flow covering the upper Midwest leading to cooler than normal temperatures at least into early October.

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European computer model (ECMWF) 9-27-2018

Rainfall reports for September 26-27, 2018
Source:  https://mesowest.utah.edu

Note:  Totals listed below are for the 24-hour period ending at 4 PM, Sept 27.

Crane Lake, MN:  0.49 in
Littlefork, MN:  0.38 in
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport:  0.34 in
International Falls, MN:  0.27 in
Isabella, MN:  0.26 in
Orr, MN:  0.26 in
Ely, MN:  0.23 in
Effie, MN:  0.21 in
Grand Portage, MN:  0.19 in
Grand Marais Airport:  0.18 in
Hill City, MN:  0.17 in
Duluth Airport:  0.17 in
Clam Lake, WI:  0.15 in
Cass Lake, MN:  0.13 in
McGregor, MN:  0.12 in
Minong, WI:  0.12 in
Barnes, WI:  0.10 in
Glidden, WI:  0.09 in
Cook, MN:  0.08 in
Washburn, WI:  0.08 in
Hayward, WI:  0.07 in
Walker, MN:  0.06 in
Superior, WI:  0.06 in
Hinckley, MN:  0.06 in
Ashland, WI:  0.06 in
Two Harbors, MN:  0.05 in
Brainerd, MN:  0.04 in
Siren, WI:  0.04 in

Note:  Today, September 27 marks the 10th consecutive day with at least a trace of rainfall at the Duluth Airport (September 18-27)

Local Storm Reports for September 27, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

5:05 PM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  1 ENE Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)

5:03 PM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  Lester Park, MN (St. Louis County)

5:00 PM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  3 NNE Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)

4:59 PM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  2 WSW Lester Park, MN (St. Louis County)

4:36 PM:  Hail — 0.70 inch.  3 SE Fredenberg, MN (St. Louis County)

2:15 PM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  7 SE Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)

1:47 PM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  3 ESE Inger, MN (Itasca County)

1:45 PM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  1 S La Prairie, MN (Itasca County)

1:10 PM:  Hail — 0.25 inch.  Linden Grove, MN (St. Louis County)

Weather Synopsis

It’s been a gray and somewhat rainy day as an upper level trough digs south into the Northland.  Some light rain earlier in the day transitioned to scattered popcorn type shower activity this afternoon as colder temps aloft combined with some modest heating near the surface, mid level lapse rates to around 7.0 c/km along with around 250 J/kg of CAPE helped to spawn a few thunderstorms this afternoon, and with the lowering freezing levels, small hail occurred with a few of these storms.  Highs today ranged from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

[Tonight]

Scattered showers will continue to move NW-SE across the Northland, but these showers should dissipate later tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.

[Friday]

Snow flurries on the way mainly for northern Minnesota!  Aloft, temperatures at 850mb and 925mb will become cold enough for snow on Friday with H85 temps dropping to around -6C and 925mb temps falling to around -2C, also thickness values will be sitting at around 1300, all this is favorable for frozen precipitation, it will just come down to what the surface temperature will be when precipitation occurs, and right now it looks like surface temps will be sitting in the mid 30s to low 40s over much of northern Minnesota, and this should be cold enough for snow showers or a mix of snow, sleet and rain.  Farther south, including east-central Minnesota, near Lake Superior and in northwest Wisconsin, it looks a bit warmer near the surface, although temps aloft and thickness values would support frozen precipitation, but again it looks warm enough near the surface for mostly rain showers or perhaps some sleet on Friday with highs in the 40s to around 50 degrees. 

Note:  A widespread frost and killing freeze is still expected over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for Saturday morning.

[Looking Ahead]

Saturday looks mainly dry but it will be on the cool side with highs in the 40s to around 50 degrees.  The period from Sunday through Wednesday could feature some rain at times as a frontal boundary sets up to our south, but it remains to be seen how far north the rain will spread.  Stay tuned.

Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 28

High:  60
Low:   41

Sunrise Friday:  7:04 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   6:54 PM CDT

Tim

/Issued 5:16 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 26, 2018/

Source:  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Radar loop ending at 4:55 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 26, 2018.

Seeing some rain showers move southeast across northwest into north-central Minnesota late this afternoon, these showers should continue to move off to the southeast tonight, and will eventually reach northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin later this evening.  Also shown on this map is the wind direction which is out of the SW this afternoon, winds will shift to the west/northwest by Thursday afternoon as a cold front moves through the area.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

18z HRRR model 9-26-2018

Simulated radar forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM Friday.  A few rounds of showers expected to move through the Northland through Thursday evening.

Source:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu

Note:  Should see more blue dots show up on this map by this weekend as other stations have their first freeze of the season.

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z GEFS model 9-26-2018

Precipitation Anomaly forecast valid thru October 12, 2018.

Green colors represent above average precipitation — Potential is there for a somewhat active weather pattern over the next 2 weeks or so across most of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes with several chances of rain, and maybe even some snow depending on temperatures and storm tracks.

Source:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu

This month is still running above average over all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with average temperatures between 1 and 5 degrees warmer than normal thru September 25 — See list below.

Duluth, MN:  +5.2 degrees above normal
Ashland, WI:  +3.7 degrees above normal
Brainerd, MN:  +3.2 degrees above normal
Hibbing, MN:  +2.2 degrees above normal
International Falls, MN:  +1.7 degrees above normal

Rainfall reports for September 25, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Babbitt, MN:  0.17 in
Wolf Ridge ELC:  0.16 in
Grand Portage, MN:  0.15 in
25 E Ely, MN:  0.14 in
Embarrass, MN:  0.13 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.13 in
Ashland, WI:  0.07 in
Hayward, WI:  0.05 in
Duluth, MN:  0.05 in
Hibbing, MN:  0.05 in
Brainerd, MN:  0.03 in

Weather Synopsis

The Northland got a break in the rainfall today, in fact the weather wasn’t bad at all for late September with mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies.  Highs were in the mid to upper 50s, near to slightly below average for the time of year.

Its an active weather pattern right now with a NW flow aloft in place.  Tuesday’s system is over eastern Canada while the next one is lined up over Manitoba province and is diving SE into the upper Midwest. 

[Tonight]

An area of low pressure will track from western Manitoba province to just north of Minnesota by dawn while a warm front and cold front connected to this low move across the Northland tonight, this system will bring some showers to the area tonight under mostly cloudy skies.  Lows will range from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

[Thursday]

Occasional showers under mostly cloudy skies.  An upper level trough will dig into the region from the north on Thursday while a cold front continues to move through the Northland — This system should bring some showers to the area, with maybe even a rumble of thunder thanks to some weak instability with CAPE of 100 to around 500 J/kg combined with steepening mid level lapse rates to around 7.5 c/km.  Highs Thursday ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

[Looking Ahead]

Friday and Saturday look rather chilly for late September as 850mb temperatures fall to between -3 and -8C while surface temps range from around 40 to 50 degrees on Friday, and mainly in the 40s for Saturday.  Note:  A widespread frost and freeze is expected over much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Friday night-Saturday morning as lows fall into the 20s to lower 30s, slightly warmer near Lake Superior.

Scattered showers of rain, snow and possibly some graupel are also expected on Friday with the greatest chance for snow flurries in northern Minnesota.

A wet weather pattern could return sometime early to mid next week which could be followed by another shot of cold Canadian air sometime between October 4-7 the way it looks now.

Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 27

High:  60
Low:   42

Sunrise Thursday:  7:02 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   6:56 PM CDT

Tim

/Issued 5:32 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 25, 2018/

Source:  http://www.intellicast.com

Another round of mostly light rainfall moving through northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this Tuesday afternoon — Radar loop ending at 4:15 PM CDT.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Water vapor satellite loop for Tuesday, September 25, 2018.

Loop time:  12:27 PM to 5:12 PM CDT

One disturbance moving through the upper Midwest today, another one dropping S/E through the Dakotas.

Source:  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM model 9-25-2018

Time frame on when the first freeze typically occurs.  In the Duluth area, our first freeze usually occurs by the end of September, so the potential freeze this weekend would be right on schedule.

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European computer model (ECMWF)  9-25-2018

Although we are in a cooler/unsettled weather pattern in the Northland, it doesn’t look cold enough for accumulating snowfall through next week, but there could be a few snow flurries in parts of the area this weekend.

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

Widespread rainfall amounts from a quarter to half inch were reported across the Northland from Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning.

Rainfall reports for September 24-25, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Note:  Totals listed below are for the 24-hour period ending at 7 AM, Sept 25.

International Falls, MN:  0.80 in
3 E Wright, MN:  0.71 in
4 W Clam Lake, WI:  0.67 in
2 E Poplar, WI:  0.65 in
Spooner, WI:  0.64 in
Hayward, WI:  0.62 in
Cook, MN:  0.62 in
2 E Celina, MN:  0.60 in
Ashland, WI:  0.58 in
8 S Bigfork, MN:  0.53 in
12 N Grand Rapids, MN:  0.50 in
Hurley, WI:  0.50 in
Northome, MN:  0.49 in
10 W Gunflint Lake, MN:  0.49 in
Gordon, WI:  0.48 in
Kabetogama, MN:  0.46 in
Butternut, WI:  0.46 in
4 S Bruno, MN:  0.45 in
25 E Ely, MN:  0.40 in
Grand Portage, MN:  0.40 in
Cass Lake, MN:  0.36 in
Babbitt, MN:  0.29 in
4 E Island Lake, MN:  0.28 in
Brainerd, MN:  0.26 in
Embarrass, MN:  0.25 in
Hibbing, MN:  0.22 in
Duluth Airport:  0.21 in
Floodwood, MN:  0.21 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.20 in

September climate stats for Duluth, Minnesota (thru the 24th)

Average temperature:  62.4 degrees
Departure:  +5.6 degrees above normal

Precipitation:  3.15 inches
Departure:  -0.20 inches below normal

Note:  This month is still running warmer than average thanks to the very warm first half of the month, while rainfall has been slightly below average so far this month in the Twin Ports with at least 0.01 inch of rain falling on 8 days so far this month.

Only 5 dates so far this month with a below average temperature (5th, 6th, 21st, 22nd and 23rd)

Weather Synopsis

A typical fall pattern in place with quick moving weather systems affecting the upper Midwest.  Mid-upper level trough covered the northern Plains and upper Midwest with pieces of energy embedded in the trough moving east through the region today while widespread 12-hour 500mb height falls of 30 to 60 meters covered areas from the Dakotas east to upper Michigan associated with the upper trough.  Skies across the Northland were mostly cloudy today with some light rain and drizzle.  Much cooler compared to Monday with highs today in the mid 40s to low 50s.

[Tonight]

Light rain and drizzle continues this evening but will end from west to east with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected overnight.  Lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

[Wednesday]

A few showers possible mainly west-south areas early Wednesday morning, otherwise mainly dry during the day followed by another round of scattered rain showers Wednesday evening/overnight thanks to another cold front which moves SE through our area.  Highs Wednesday in the lower 50s to around 60 degrees, warmest temps in east-central Minnesota.

[Looking Ahead]

Weather pattern remains unsettled Thursday and Friday with some more showers possible at times, no widespread rains are expected, but at least a few showers will dot the landscape late this week.  Highs Thursday mainly in the 50s, then cooler temps ahead for Friday with highs ranging from ~40 to 50 degrees, even cooler Saturday with highs mainly in the 40s.

Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 26

High:  61
Low:   42

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:01 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   6:58 PM CDT

Tim