Mainly dry and cool tonight-Thursday; Rain-snow possible at times this weekend-middle of next week

/Issued 6:03 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 31, 2018/

Red line and Black lines on map are the potential storm tracks for both systems.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Wednesday, October 31, 2018.

A strong mid/upper level trough and area of low pressure is moving E/NE across Texas tonight, this storm will head into the eastern U.S. for Thursday and Friday.  Rain and severe thunderstorms occurring with that storm the next few days.

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

18z NAM model 10-31-2018

Active stretch of weather has begun, and it should carry over into next week.

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z European Computer model (ECMWF) 10-31-2018

Will see if this trend continues to show up in future model runs, but so far the longer range models have been consistently showing a cold period setting up for the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes and other parts of the U.S. as we get into the latter portion of next week.  More info below.

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z GEFS model 10-31-2018

Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid thru November 16, 2018.

Blue colors=Below average temperatures
Orange/red colors=Above average temperatures

Model guidance continues to show a chilly first half of November over a large portion of the U.S. represented by the blue colors on the map, note how the cooler than average temps become more widespread while expanding south/east as we head into the 1st-2nd week of November.

November Climate Averages for Duluth, Minnesota

Temperature:  28.8 degrees
Snowfall:  13.7 inches
Precipitation:  2.09 inches

Normal high on the 1st:  44 degrees
Normal high on the 30th:  28 degrees

Normal low on the 1st:  29 degrees
Normal low on the 30th:  14 degrees

Warmest November on record:  40.6 degrees set in 1899
Coldest November on record:  18.8 degrees set in 1959

Snowiest November on record:  50.1 inches set in 1991
Least snowiest November on record:  Trace set in 1928

Wettest November on record:  5.08 inches set in 2000
Driest November on record:  0.09 inches set in 1917

Average number of days with snowfall 0.1 inch or greater:  9
Average number of days with snowfall 1.0 inch or greater:  4
Average number of days with a subzero low temperature:  1

Astronomical Data for November

Sunrise on the 1st:  7:51 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 30th:  7:31 AM CST

Sunset on the 1st:  5:53 PM CDT
Sunset on the 30th:  4:22 PM CST

Note:  Daylight Saving Time ends on Sunday, November 4 at 2 AM — We fall back an hour this weekend!

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Nothing too scary when it comes to our weather for Halloween 2018.  A seasonably cool but breezy day with mostly cloudy skies across northern Minnesota while farther south skies were mostly cloudy but have been clearing late this afternoon with some sunshine occurring over east-central Minnesota up to Duluth including much of northwest Wisconsin.  Highs today ranged from the mid 30s to upper 40s with the ‘warm’ spots being Brainerd, Hinckley, Siren and Hayward.  Winds today were out west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts earlier in the day.

Cool but mainly dry tonight and Thursday, but there could be a few flurries tonight in northern Minnesota, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected.  Lows tonight will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s with highs Thursday in the mid 30s to low 40s.  An area of high pressure will settle into the Northland during the next 24 hours which will keep our area on the quiet side.

A few changes take place for Thursday night and Friday.  An area of low pressure is forecast to track SE out of the northern Plains spreading an area of rain or snow into western-southern portions of the Northland, however, it doesn’t look like there would be much if any snow accumulation out of this system with marginal temperatures in place for snow.  Note:  Will also see the winds change direction with east winds developing Thursday night and Friday, this could cause a few lake effect rain or snow showers near Lake Superior, but this also doesn’t look like a real big deal.

The next system for this weekend could have more of an impact on our area, but once again temperatures will be marginal for snow, but cold enough air could be in place across parts of the Northland for snow to fall with some accumulation possible, these chances look greatest for areas that are away from Lake Superior, while mostly rain or a rain-snow mix occurs closer to Lake Superior the way it looks now.

The third system for early next week (Mon-Wed) looks kinda similar to the one this weekend, although a stronger upper level trough and deeper surface low could end up developing over the Great Lakes next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Late next week/weekend is looking quite cold around here with potential for daytime highs in the 20s, and overnight lows in the single digits and teens (Roughly from Nov 8-11) Normal highs during that aforementioned time frame are in the mid 30s to low 40s, normal lows are in the low to mid 20s.

Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for November 1

High:  44
Low:   29

Sunrise Thursday:  7:51 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   5:53 PM CDT

Tim

Breezy and cool Halloween, mainly dry. Rain/snow possible at times this weekend-middle of next week

/Issued 6:15 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 30, 2018/

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

18z RGEM model 10-30-2018














Note:  The first storm on Halloween won’t affect the Northland as it stays well to our south, tracking from west Texas to the Ohio Valley, but the next two systems could impact parts of the Northland this weekend thru the middle of next week depending on the storm tracks.

Source:  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Note:  An area of low pressure is forecast to move S/SE out of the northern Plains later this week, this system looks like it will remain far enough west/south of the Northland to give us any precipitation Thursday night and Friday, but some light lake effect rain or snow could develop near Lake Superior Thursday night or Friday as winds turn to the east.

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

Greatest precipitation totals thru the weekend are forecast to be over northwest U.S.; and from the southern to eastern U.S.

Precipitation reports for October 30, 2018
Source:  https://mesowest.utah.edu

Crane Lake, MN:  0.21 in
International Falls, MN:  0.19 in
Ely, MN:  0.18 in
Isabella, MN:  0.17 in
Grand Portage, MN:  0.16 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.15 in
Moose Lake, MN:  0.13 in
Saginaw, MN:  0.13 in
Washburn, WI:  0.13 in
Two Harbors, MN:  0.12 in
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.11 in
Duluth Airport:  0.11 in
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport:  0.09 in
Barnes, WI:  0.09 in
Hinckley, MN:  0.08 in
Superior Airport:  0.08 in
Minong, WI:  0.07 in
Ashland, WI:  0.07 in
Cook, MN:  0.07 in
Hill City, MN:  0.06 in
McGregor, MN:  0.05 in
Walker, MN:  0.04 in
Brainerd, MN:  0.04 in

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

We had the round of rain this morning, then skies cleared a bit over parts of the area this afternoon with quite a bit of sunshine late this afternoon roughly west/south of a line from Bigfork to Cloquet with more clouds north and east.  Highs today were in the 40s to around 50 degrees which is near to a few degrees warmer than normal on this 2nd to last day of October 2018.

Surface map late this afternoon had an area of low pressure along the Manitoba-Ontario province line with a cold front stretching from central Lake Superior to western Illinois.

A secondary cold front will swing SE through the Northland tonight and should exit to the S/E by Wednesday afternoon.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected across the area tonight and Wednesday with a few spotty light rain or snow showers possible.

Lows tonight will mainly be in the 30s with highs on Halloween in the upper 30s to lower 40s which is a few degrees below average.

Thursday looks mainly dry at the moment with highs in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

System for Thursday night and Friday looks to remain west/south of our area per model guidance, so most of the attention is with the next system for this weekend, and this one could have more of an impact on our weather as low pressure heads SE out of western Canada.  This system if it tracks far enough north could bring some rain or snow to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Saturday afternoon through Sunday with a couple inches of snow accumulation possible over some parts of the area.  Note:  The 12z European model from Tuesday is very aggressive in terms of snowfall potential with several inches (Possibly 4″+) accumulations over much of the Northland for late this weekend.  Certainly something to monitor over the next few days.

Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 31

High:  44
Low:   30

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:50 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   5:54 PM CDT

Tim

Rain returns Tue morning, dry Tue afternoon. Cool but dry Halloween. Some rain/snow at times this weekend

/Issued 5:12 PM CDT, Monday, October 29, 2018/

Source:  http://www.intellicast.com

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Monday afternoon, October 29, 2018.

Our next system that will impact the Northland tonight is moving east out of the northern Rockies and western High Plains region late this Monday afternoon.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM-Nest model 10-29-2018

Simulated radar forecast from 10 PM tonight to 10 AM Tuesday.

Green=Rain
Blue=Snow

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 10-29-2018

Favored storm track thru the next 2 weeks looks to be from the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, central/eastern Great Lakes into the northeast U.S while most of the upper Midwest has near normal precipitation totals thru November 13 per long range model guidance.

Source:  http://www.sercc.com/

Temperature departure map for the week of October 21, 2018 — Far northern Minnesota had above average temperatures last week while the rest of the Northland saw their average temperature below average or close to average.

Source:  http://www.sercc.com/

Precipitation departure map for the week of October 21, 2018 — Above average precipitation last week over parts of east-central Minnesota (Green, blue and purple colors on map) Below average precipitation over most of northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota.

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

October 21-27, 2018

High Temperature/Departure from Normal

10/21:  52 F/+3 degrees above normal
10/22:  54 F/+5 degrees above normal
10/23:  46 F/-2 degrees below normal
10/24:  52 F/+4 degrees above normal
10/25:  47 F/Normal
10/26:  48 F/+1 degree above normal
10/27:  45 F/-1 degree below normal

Low Temperature/Departure from Normal

10/21:  26 F/-7 degrees below normal
10/22:  31 F/-2 degrees below normal
10/23:  28 F/-5 degrees below normal
10/24:  26 F/-6 degrees below normal
10/25:  41 F/+9 degrees above normal
10/26:  43 F/+11 degrees above normal
10/27:  43 F/+12 degrees above normal

Note:  Average temperature for the week of October 21:  41.6 degrees (+1.6 degrees above normal)  Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total Precipitation:  0.73 inches
Normal:  0.56 inches
Departure:  +0.17 inches above normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of October 21, 2018
Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  41.1 degrees
Departure:  -1.6 degrees below normal

Precipitation:  0.28 inches
Departure:  -0.17 inches below normal

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

•4-day rainfall total of 0.88 inches (Oct 25-28)

•So far this month (thru the 28th) 4.56 inches of precipitation which ties with October 1973 for 14th wettest October in station history.

•We’ve had 21 days so far this month with an average or below average temperature; 7 days so far this month with an above average temperature.  Oct 2018 (thru the 28th) is running -2.6 degrees colder than average.

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

No rain today, hallelujah! Most of the area had another day of mostly cloudy skies, however, so the late October gray period continues.  Highs today were mainly in the low to mid 40s, close to average as we near the end of the month.

A few breaks in the clouds are possible over southern areas this evening, otherwise mostly cloudy skies for tonight with some more rain moving in overnight as low pressure along with some lift and warm air advection help to generate some rain later tonight.  The rain shouldn’t last too long, and should clear out of our area from W-E before Noon Tuesday.

Temperatures in far northern Minnesota could become cold enough to produce a rain-snow mix or perhaps a change over to all snow early Tuesday morning, mainly north of a line from Bigfork-Hibbing to Silver Bay, but temperatures will be marginal with 850mb temps hovering between +1 and -1C while 925mb temps hover right around 0C, so it will come down to the surface temperature as to what type of precipitation will see in far northern Minnesota Tuesday morning.

As mentioned above, the rain moves out Tuesday afternoon as one low exits to the east while another low to our north drops a cold front into the Northland, but there shouldn’t be any precipitation with that front.

Lows tonight will range from the mid 30s to low 40s with highs Tuesday in the low 40s to low 50s.

Looking ahead to Halloween — Cool and breezy with highs in the 30s to lower 40s along with westerly winds gusting to around 25 mph.  Looks mainly dry for most of us, but a few rain or snow showers are possible up near the Minnesota-Ontario border.

Note:  There are several systems showing up in model guidance for this weekend into next week, but the tracks and strength of each system is uncertain as the computer models have been struggling lately to get a handle on the pattern as we head into early November.  Could see some snow or rain at times across the Northland between November 2-8, but whether or not any of this is impactful is uncertain at the moment.

Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 30

High:  45
Low:   30

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:48 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   5:56 PM CDT

Tim

More rain later tonight-Sun AM (Oct 2018 currently ranks as 19th wettest Oct on record at Duluth, Minn)

/Issued 4:20 PM CDT, Saturday, October 27, 2018/

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM-Nest model 10-27-2018

Simulated radar forecast valid from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM Sunday.  Rain will spread from west to east across the Northland tonight, rain developing first in western areas, then later on tonight for areas farther south/east.  Rain should start in Duluth between 9-11 PM tonight.

Rain lingers into Sunday morning but will end from W-E Sunday afternoon.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM-Nest model 10-27-2018

Rainfall totals ranging from around a quarter to half inch are possible by early Sunday afternoon over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with possibly more than a half inch of rain in parts of north-central/east-central Minnesota.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 lower level water vapor satellite loop from Saturday, October 27, 2018.

Tonight’s rain maker is heading SE out of Manitoba province and North Dakota late this Saturday afternoon.

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 10-27-2018

There has been a consistent signal showing up in the Euro ensemble model for some snow across the Northland in early November.  Just something to monitor in coming days.

Rainfall reports for October 26-27, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Note:  Totals listed below are for the 24-hour period from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday.

12 N Grand Rapids, MN:  0.35 in
2 E Celina, MN:  0.32 in
Kabetogama, MN:  0.30 in
12 N Isle, MN:  0.28 in
Cotton, MN:  0.25 in
International Falls, MN:  0.23 in
Cook, MN:  0.22 in
Floodwood, MN:  0.19 in
Duluth, MN:  0.18 in
3 E Orr, MN:  0.18 in
4 E Island Lake, MN:  0.16 in
3 E Wright, MN:  0.15 in
25 E Ely, MN:  0.09 in
Embarrass, MN:  0.09 in

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

•2-day rainfall total of 0.33 inches (Oct 25-26)  Will add to this total as more rain is expected tonight through Sunday morning.

•4.01 inches of precipitation so far this month (Thru the 26th)  The wettest October on record occurred in 1949 with 7.53 inches of precipitation.  Note:  October 2018 currently ranks as 19th wettest October on record, but we could move up a few more spots by the end of the month.

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Rain came to an end this morning but patchy drizzle and fog lingered throughout the day over most of the area, but there was some sun at times in far western areas (Mainly the Brainerd lakes region) Highs today were in the 40s, with lower 50s in the Pine River and Brainerd areas.

A stronger wave with a decent amount of lift will impact most of the Northland tonight into Sunday morning with an area of low pressure tracking from eastern North Dakota to southern Wisconsin by dawn. 

Quite an impressive temperature gradient for this system to work with — Temps this afternoon ranging from the lower 70s along the South Dakota-Nebraska state line to the lower 40s in northeast Minnesota.  Aloft, 850mb temps ranged from +14C in southern South Dakota to 0C in northeast Minnesota.

Rain spreads west-east across the Northland tonight with lingering rain showers and drizzle into Sunday morning before the rain wraps up Sunday afternoon.  There could be a few breaks in the clouds allowing for some sunshine on Sunday, but overall skies still look to be fairly cloudy through Sunday afternoon.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to middle 40s with highs Sunday mainly in the 40s. 

Winds will shift to the NW and increase on Sunday behind the area of low pressure with wind gusts up to 25 mph possible over parts of the area.

Dry weather is expected Monday morning but rain showers could return Monday afternoon or Monday night as another area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Highs on Monday in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 28

High:  46
Low:   31

Sunrise Sunday:  7:45 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   5:59 PM CDT

Tim

Wet October continues! Rain at times thru Sun AM. Keeping an eye on the Nov 2-4 time frame for some snow and cold temps

/Issued 5:23 PM CDT, Friday, October 26, 2018/

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 10-26-2018

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Radar loop ending at 6:25 PM CDT, Friday, October 26, 2018.  Yep, it’s going to be a wet night across much of the Northland.

Source:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

21z RAP model 10-26-2018

Should see a rather large temperature gradient setup on Saturday with a shot of warmer air south of an area of low pressure while north of the low, temperatures remain seasonably cool.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 Upper level water vapor satellite loop from Friday, October 26, 2018.

It’s a parade of storms as an active weather pattern has setup as we head toward the final few days of October.

Source:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu

Total Precipitation (Percent of Mean) for October 2018 thru the 25th

Certainly has been a wet month from the central Plains to the upper Midwest and Great Lakes with precipitation totals running anywhere from 1 to 5 times above average thru the 25th.  More stats below.

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European Ensemble model 10-26-2018

Rainfall totals for October 25-26, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Note:  Totals listed below are from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM Friday

12 N Isle, MN:  0.79 in
25 E Ely, MN:  0.78 in
10 W Gunflint Lake, MN:  0.55 in
12 N Grand Rapids, MN:  0.52 in
Wolfridge, MN:  0.49 in
Cass Lake, MN:  0.48 in
3 E Wright, MN:  0.36 in
4 E Island Lake, MN:  0.31 in
Babbitt, MN:  0.30 in
Duluth Airport:  0.27 in
8.8 N Bayfield, WI:  0.25 in
Cook, MN:  0.23 in
International Falls, MN:  0.18 in
3 E Orr, MN:  0.15 in
2 E Poplar, WI:  0.12 in
3 S Ashland, WI:  0.10 in
Gordon, WI:  0.03 in

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

Today (Oct 26) marks the 19th day so far this month with at least a trace of precipitation; Only 7 days so far this month without any precipitation.

October 2018 Precipitation Totals thru the 25th

Marquette, MI:  6.08″ (+2.89″ above normal)
Eau Claire, WI:  4.73″ (+2.74″ above normal)
Brainerd, MN:  4.30″ (+1.81″ above normal)
Duluth, MN:  3.89″ (+1.50″ above normal)
St. Cloud, MN:  3.23″ (+1.11″ above normal)
International Falls, MN:  2.80″ (+1.06″ above normal)

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

For the most part it’s been another gloomy October day around here but there were a few exceptions mainly in parts of northwest Wisconsin where some peeks of sun were found today, and even here in Duluth we had a few peeks of sun this morning, but those didn’t last too long.  Otherwise we’ve seen a rather large but slow moving area of light to moderate rainfall affect much of northeast and east-central Minnesota into far northwest portions of Wisconsin today.  Highs were mainly in the 40s with a few spots in northwest Wisconsin making it into the low 50s.

Light rain, drizzle and some fog will linger over the Northland tonight but the rain should dissipate slowly from SW-NE during the day Saturday, but this break in the rain will be brief as another round of rain moves through our area from NW-SE for Saturday night.  Rain will come to an end Sunday morning with most of Sunday actually looking dry, although cool and on the breezy side!

Temps will be milder than average at night due to the clouds with lows tonight and Saturday night in the upper 30s to middle 40s.  Highs Saturday and Sunday will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s, and it will be rather breezy on Sunday with NW winds gusting to around 30 mph as we get a weak shot of cold air advection behind the low that will affect us Saturday night.

Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 27

High:  46
Low:   31

Sunrise Saturday:  7:44 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   6:01 PM CDT

Tim