/Issued 6:07 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 3, 2018/
The first snow event of the season is possible late Thursday night into Friday morning over north-central and parts of northeast Minnesota (away from Lake Superior)
Note: Here’s my preliminary snowfall potential map for late Thursday night-Friday morning.
Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov
Source: http://www.intellicast.com
Radar loop ending at 6:15 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 3, 2018.
Green=Rain
Blue=Snow
Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov
Strong winds will sweep through the Northland tonight as low pressure passes north of Lake Superior while a combination of strong cold air advection and strong pressure rises move into the Northland this evening.
The cold air that is over northwest Minnesota late this afternoon will spread farther south/east during the night.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
Goes-16 Infrared Satellite loop from Wednesday, October 3, 2018
Loop time: 1:02 PM to 6:02 PM
One cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms moving through parts of upper Michigan this afternoon while additional scattered strong to severe thunderstorms erupt near the cold front near the Minnesota-Wisconsin border late this afternoon.
Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov
A tornado watch remains in effect until 11 PM tonight (Red shaded area on map) The greatest potential for a few tornadoes is over north-central Wisconsin into southern upper Michigan.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM-Nest model Simulated Radar forecast (Precipitation type) Snow in blue, rain in green.
Valid: 7 PM Thursday to 7 PM Friday.
Precipitation in the form of rain and snow is forecast spread from SW-NE across the Northland Thursday evening with precipitation continuing into Friday morning, with some lingering drizzle or light rain expected for Friday afternoon the way it looks now.
…Weather Forecast for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin…
•Tonight: Turning much colder with strong northwest winds spreading from west to east across our area. Wind gusts of 25 to around 45 mph with gusts over 50 mph possible near Lake Superior. Low temperatures falling into the 30s. A few sprinkles or flurries possible in far northern Minnesota this evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing over parts of northwest Wisconsin before 9 PM.
•Thursday: Blustery during the morning with northwest winds 15 to 30 mph, winds will diminish a bit during the afternoon. Should finally get some sunshine over most of the area Thursday with a mix of sun/clouds expected. Highs will be in the 40s.
•Thursday night: The next system that will impact our area approaches from the SW with precipitation spreading from SW-NE during the evening. Looks like will see mainly rain in eastern Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin and near Lake Superior while a rain/snow mix changing to all snow occurs in north-central Minnesota where some snow accumulation is possible by Friday morning. Note: For Duluth, I think this will mainly be a rain event, although some snow could mix in at times early Friday morning on top of the hill.
•Friday: Light rain and drizzle lingers most of the day under mostly cloudy skies while snow or a rain/snow mix in north-central Minnesota transitions to mainly liquid precipitation by the afternoon as surface temperatures warm up enough causing the snow to switch over to rain. Very cool on Friday with highs in the 30s and 40s.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 4
High: 57
Low: 39
Sunrise Thursday: 7:12 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 6:42 PM CDT
Tim
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