/Issued 1:36 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 9, 2018/
Goes-16 water vapor satellite image from late Tuesday afternoon, October 9, 2018.
Shown on the map are 850mb temps, 500mb heights and upper level wind speeds.
Radar loop ending at 6:45 PM CDT — Rain spreading north across the Northland this evening.
…Active weather headlines for Duluth and Superior…
•Lakeshore Flood Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM Wednesday.
Damage is possible to shoreline infrastructure, such as harbors, beaches, lake walkways such as the Duluth Lakewalk, and roads near the shore.
A lakeshore flood warning means that flooding is occurring or imminent along the lake. Residents on or near the shore in the warned area should be alert for rising water, and take appropriate action to protect life and property.
•Flood Watch through late Wednesday night
Rivers will see rapid rises and will remain high due to the expected rainfall through Wednesday night. Leaves and debris will clog drainage pipes and gutters.
A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts.
•Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM Wednesday
Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Gusts to 55 mph are possible near Lake Superior.
Saturated soils will lead to uprooted trees and may cause power outages. High profile vehicles on the Blatnik and Bong bridges should use extreme caution.
Note: Highest wind gusts tonight and Wednesday should occur closer to Lake Superior or inside the white line on the map.
Here’s my snowfall potential map
The rain-snow line should shift farther south/east late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning with a light dusting of snow possible mainly on grassy surfaces from around Brainerd to Duluth into the Arrowhead of Minnesota.
The heaviest swath of snow with potential for 4 to 7 inches of accumulation is forecast to setup over parts of northwest Minnesota with potential for 2 to 4 inches of snow farther east including the cities of International Falls, Littlefork and Bigfork.
There is also a chance for some sleet on Wednesday across north-central portions of Minnesota.
18z NAM-Nest model 10-9-2018
Simulated radar forecast from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM Thursday.
Pink: Mixed precipitation
Snow or mixed precip late tonight through Wednesday evening from parts of the Dakotas into north-central Minnesota, then will see the rain-snow line advance farther south/east Wednesday night or early Thursday morning before the storm moves far enough away which will then end the precipitation.
12z HREF model
18z NAM-Nest model 10-9-2018
Wind gust forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 9 PM Wednesday — NE winds near Lake Superior with gusts greater than 40 mph (Purple colors on map) developing by mid or late this evening with strong winds then continuing through the day Wednesday before winds diminish and shift to the NW Wednesday evening.
Goes-16 Upper Level water vapor satellite loop from Tuesday, October 9, 2018
Loop time: 12:32 PM to 5:37 PM CDT
A major CAT 3 Hurricane moving toward the Florida Panhandle while a major autumn storm heads N-NE across the central Plains today. Incredible weather pattern this week!
On the east/warm side of this major autumn storm there is a risk of severe weather and tornadoes this evening stretching from northwest Arkansas, north to southern Wisconsin!
Note: There’s been over a dozen preliminary tornado reports so far today from Texas, north to Iowa.
An amazing temperature contrast over the U.S. today.
Storm track forecast — Low pressure over eastern Kansas this evening, moves northeast, reaching northeast Wisconsin Wednesday evening, and eastern Lake Superior by Thursday morning.
…Hurricane Michael update…
4 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 9, 2018
Location: About 295 miles south of Panama City, Florida; About 270 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 120 mph
Present Movement: North at 12 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 957mb or 28.26 inches
Michael is forecast to make landfall Wednesday afternoon over the Florida Panhandle and is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall with winds greater than 110 mph.
Goes-16 Infrared Satellite loop of Hurricane Michael from Tuesday, October 9, 2018.
18z NAM-Nest model 10-9-2018
Simulated radar forecast of Hurricane Michael valid from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM Thursday
Rainfall Reports for October 8-9, 2018
Note: Totals listed below are from 7 AM Monday thru 7 AM Tuesday.
Butternut, WI: 0.86 in
Hurley, WI: 0.74 in
Wolfridge, MN: 0.55 in
3 S of Ashland, WI: 0.53 in
25 E of Ely, MN: 0.50 in
4 W of Clam Lake, WI: 0.7 in
Grand Portage, MN: 0.45 in
Duluth, MN: 0.42 in
Cass Lake, MN: 0.42 in
Cotton, MN: 0.42 in
12 N of Isle, MN: 0.40 in
Babbitt, MN: 0.40 in
3 E of Wright, MN: 0.39 in
Embarrass, MN: 0.38 in
Gordon, WI: 0.35 in
Kabetogama, MN: 0.34 in
12 N of Grand Rapids, MN: 0.32 in
2 E of Celina, MN: 0.30 in
Floodwood, MN: 0.30 in
4 E of Island Lake, MN: 0.27 in
International Falls, MN: 0.26 in
3 E of Orr, MN: 0.21 in
Cook, MN: 0.18 in
I’ve been following weather for a long time, roughly 30 years, and I don’t recall a weather pattern quite like this one that we’re in right now — About every kind of weather you can think of is happening today!
It’s kind of odd to see the atmosphere this charged up where you have a hurricane, tornadoes and snow all occurring on the same day!
For us here in the Northland, wild weather through Thursday morning.
•Hazards include strong northeasterly winds near Lake Superior with wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph. This could cause some power outages, and possibly down some trees or limbs. These strong NE winds will also create large/dangerous waves over Lake Superior with wave heights ranging from 14 to 18 feet by Wednesday morning with waves over the open waters approaching 26 feet!
•Rain will be widespread tonight over all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, and some of the rain will be heavy at times especially later tonight as bands of heavy rain lift north out of southern Minnesota.
•Colder temperatures will be found in far northern Minnesota tonight and this is where the rain will become mixed with snow late tonight, mixed precip could switch over to all snow for a few hours early Wednesday morning, then as the surface low lifts farther NE out of Iowa it will pull in slightly warmer air aloft, likely changing the snow back to rain or a mix bag of precipitation types for most of Wednesday before cold air rushes back in late Wednesday afternoon which will switch the rain or snow back to all snow Wednesday night. By the time the snow winds down Thursday morning anywhere from a coating to 4 inches of accumulation is expected with the highest amounts along a line roughly from Walker to Bigfork to International Falls and west from there. Note: There is a chance that a few locations within that aforementioned corridor pick up more than 4 inches of snow, but those chances are rather low, a greater chance for more than 4 inches of snow exists slightly farther west over parts of northwestern Minnesota.