/Issued 5:19 PM CDT, Thursday, October 11, 2018/
21z HRRR model 10-11-2018
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 10-11-2018
Another widespread shot of cold/below average temperatures on the way after a brief warmup on Saturday. Greatest departures from normal in the black circled area on map where highs could be 15 to around 25 degrees below average on Sunday.
Quite an expansive area of snow cover showing up this afternoon per satellite imagery after Wednesday’s snowstorm which dumped 6 to 12 inches or more of snow in parts of eastern North Dakota. Snow also accumulated in parts of western-northern Minnesota, but lingering cloud cover made it difficult to see the snow cover on satellite imagery today.
Always an exciting thing to see the first snowflakes of the season, and that happened this morning with some snow even near Lake Superior (October 11, 2018) This was the radar image from around 4:30 AM Thursday.
12z GEFS model 10-11-2018
Precipitation Anomaly Forecast valid thru October 27, 2018 — A drier weather pattern is setting up for our area over the next few weeks with generally light/minor precipitation events with no strong signals showing up for major storm systems to impact the Northland over the next 2 weeks.
12z GEFS model 10-11-2018
500mb forecast valid thru October 27, 2018 — The reason for the drier pattern, NW flow aloft vs. the SW flow aloft that we were in earlier this week.
Snowfall reports for October 10-11, 2018
Cook, MN: 5.0″
Side Lake, MN: 5.0″
3 E Orr, MN: 3.8″
International Falls, MN: 3.1″
11 N Nashwauk, MN: 3.0″
McGregor, MN: 3.0″
1 NW Chisholm, MN: 2.5″
7 SSW Grand Rapids, MN: 2.4″
Kelly Lake, MN: 2.3″
Pengilly, MN: 2.0″
Proctor, MN: 2.0″
Embarrass, MN: 1.7″
Duluth Airport: 1.1″
Crosby, MN: 1.0″
3 ENE Wright, MN: 1.0″
3 E Cotton, MN: 1.0″
Deerwood, MN: 1.0″
Cloquet, MN: 1.0″
1 WNW Cass Lake, MN: 1.0″
1 WSW Maple, WI: 0.2″
24-hour Precipitation Totals
Note: Totals listed below are from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday
Cook, MN: 0.75 in
3 E Orr, MN: 0.73 in
Wolfridge, MN: 0.66 in
8 S Bigfork, MN: 0.65 in
Embarrass, MN: 0.65 in
Floodwood, MN: 0.60 in
4 S Bruno, MN: 0.60 in
International Falls, MN: 0.57 in
3 E Wright, MN: 0.55 in
3 S Ashland, WI: 0.54 in
Gordon, WI: 0.54 in
Hurley, WI: 0.52 in
Babbitt, MN: 0.47 in
Cotton, MN: 0.45 in
Duluth, MN: 0.43 in
Cass Lake, MN: 0.41 in
Winter, WI: 0.37 in
4 E Island Lake, MN: 0.36 in
Grand Marais, MN: 0.35 in
Butternut, WI: 0.35 in
25 E Ely, MN: 0.30 in
12 N Grand Rapids, MN: 0.20 in
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
1.0 inch snowfall this morning, October 11, 2018 — Average date for first 1 inch or greater snowfall is October 28 (1981-2010 climate period)
Last few years 1st one inch snowfall
2014: November 27
2015: November 10
2016: November 18
2017: October 27
2018: October 11
There have only been 4 years dating back to 1948 where the first one inch or greater snowfall occurred before October 11 — Those years are 1977, 1985, 1991 and 2009.
Only 1 date so far this month without any precipitation (October 4) All the other dates so far this month have had at least 0.01 inch of precipitation.
…Climate Data for October 10, 2018…
International Falls, Minnesota
Snowiest October 10 on record on Wednesday with 2.5 inches of snow. The previous snowiest was 0.8 inches set on October 10, 2009.
4th coldest high temperature on record for October 10 with a high on Wednesday of 38 degrees. Coldest high temperature on record for October 10 is 33 degrees set in 1919, tied in 1970 and 2009.
Wettest October 10 on record on Wednesday with 1.19 inches of precipitation. The previous wettest October 10 was 0.98 inches set in 1946.
5th coldest high temperature on record for October 10 with a high on Wednesday of 43 degrees. Coldest high temperature on record for October 10 is 34 degrees set in 1906.
Snowiest October 10 on record with 0.5 inches of snow on Wednesday.
2nd wettest October 10 on record on Wednesday with 0.63 inches of precipitation. Wettest October 10 is 0.83 inches set in 2008.
2nd wettest October 10 on record with 0.97 inches of precipitation on Wednesday. Wettest October 10 is 0.99 inches set in 1983.
4th coldest high temperature on record for October 10 with a high on Wednesday of 37 degrees. The coldest high temperature on record for October 10 is 32 degrees set in 2009.
5th wettest October 10 on record with 0.97 inches of precipitation on Wednesday
…Climate Data for October 9, 2018…
5th wettest October 9 on record with 0.93 inches of precipitation on Tuesday. The wettest October 9 is 2.55 inches set in 1973.
2nd wettest October 9 on record with 1.57 inches of precipitation on Tuesday. The wettest October 9 is 2.28 inches set in 1970.
Tied for 5th coldest high temperature on record for October 9 with a high on Tuesday of 45 degrees. The coldest high temperature on record for October 9 is 35 degrees set in 1925.
Tied for 4th coldest high temperature on record for October 9 with a high on Tuesday of 41 degrees. The coldest high temperature on record for October 9 is 35 degrees set in 1967.
A cold day as we approach mid October already! A strong area of low pressure was centered over over southern Hudson Bay late this afternoon with high pressure covering the central Plains. A gusty and cold NW flow occurred over our area today between the low to our NE and high to our SW. Highs today were only in the low to mid 30s with upper 30s in a few spots closer to Lake Superior. Spotty snow showers also occurred today which mixed with some sleet or rain near Lake Superior. Although skies were generally mostly cloudy once again today, some locations did see some sun at times so that’s always a good thing, especially after how cloudy it’s been around here lately.
Forecast for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies with a few flurries or light snow showers. Lows ranging from the upper teens to upper 20s, coldest temperatures across northern Minnesota.
Mostly cloudy skies but some clearing is expected through the day. Could be some flurries around especially during the morning. Highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s, still well below average for this time of year.
Low pressure approaches from the NW which will drag a warm front and cold front through our area. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are expected Saturday with a few showers possible mainly in northern Minnesota. A little warmer ahead of this system as 850mb temps increase to +4 to +8C, highs Saturday will be in the 40s with a few spots in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin possibly climbing to around 50 degrees! But as is often the case in October the warmer temps will be accompanied by a gusty S-SW wind.
Note: Strong cold air advection and gusty NW winds develop Saturday night into Sunday with 850mb temperatures falling to around -10C, daytime highs Sunday only in the 30s once again with some snow or rain showers.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 12
Sunrise Friday: 7:22 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 6:27 PM CDT