/Issued 4:38 PM CDT, Sunday, October 14, 2018/
An area of snow showers over eastern North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota late this Sunday afternoon are moving south/east and will impact parts of the Northland later this evening into early Monday morning, a few spots in the Northland could pick up a half inch to 2 inches of snow by dawn.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Sunday, October 14, 2018.
Loop time: 12:32 PM to 3:32 PM CDT
Note the swirl heading southeast into eastern North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota this afternoon, this system will affect our area tonight-early Monday morning.
18z NAM model 10-14-2018
500mb Vorticity forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM Monday. This is a strong system that will move through the Northland from NW-SE tonight, but moisture will be limited since it’s coming out of Canada.
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 10-14-2018
Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid for Thursday afternoon, October 18, 2018.
Temperature departure map for the week of October 7, 2018 — All of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin had below average temperatures last week by some 5 to 10 degrees! Impressive!
Precipitation departure map for the week of October 7, 2018 — Well above average precip totals last week especially the blue and purple colors on map, this is where total precipitation was 1 to 2 times above the average for the 7-day period from the 7th-13th.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
October 7-13, 2018
High Temperature/Departure from Normal
10/7: 44 F/-12 degrees below normal
10/8: 49 F/-6 degrees below normal
10/9: 45 F/-10 degrees below normal
10/10: 42 F/-12 degrees below normal
10/11: 39 F/-15 degrees below normal
10/12: 39 F/-14 degrees below normal
10/13: 47 F/-6 degrees below normal
Low Temperature/Departure from Normal
10/7: 41 F/+3 degrees above normal
10/8: 43 F/+6 degrees above normal
10/9: 41 F/+4 degrees above normal
10/10: 35 F/-2 degrees below normal
10/11: 30 F/-6 degrees below normal
10/12: 29 F/-7 degrees below normal
10/13: 30 F/-6 degrees below normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of October 7: 39.6 degrees (-6.0 degrees below normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 2.66 inches
Normal: 0.68 inches
Departure: +1.98 inches above normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of October 7
Temperature: 40.2 degrees
Departure: -8.5 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 2.04 inches
Departure: +1.43 inches above normal
Note: October 2018 is off to a much colder start in Minnesota compared to last October, see stats below.
October 1-13, 2018
Average temperature: 42.8 degrees
Departure: -7.1 degrees below normal
October 1-13, 2017
Average temperature: 51.8 degrees
Departure: +2.0 degrees above normal
Note: This October is running -9.0 degrees colder in Minnesota compared to last October (thru the 13th)
…Stats for Duluth, Minnesota…
October 1-13, 2018
Average temperature: 39.6 degrees
Departure: -6.0 degrees below normal
October 1-13, 2017
Average temperature: 48.9 degrees
Departure: +2.2 degrees above normal
Note: In Duluth, this October is running ~9 degrees colder compared to last October (thru the 13th)
..September 24 was the last time we had an above average temperature at Duluth, Minnesota — See stats below…
Note: First number shown below is the average temperature for the date in degrees Fahrenheit; Second number is the departure from average.
A cold and mostly cloudy day (Few peeks of sun) with highs today generally in the mid 30s with several locations in the Northland having their coldest high temp or a top 5 coldest high temp on record for October 14.
There was an area of light snow or rain that affected much of northwest Wisconsin back into eastern and northeast Minnesota this afternoon due to a band of F-GEN that setup today across parts of the upper Midwest, this band was strongest farther south which helped to produce a swath of accumulating snowfall of a half inch to over 4 inches today in parts of south-central Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin.
RAP model analysis this afternoon had a strong shortwave trough digging S/E through the northern Plains with a southwest flow aloft in place across the upper Midwest out ahead of that aforementioned trough. A cold airmass covers our area today with 850mb temperatures of -8 to -10C!
Forecast for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Scattered snow showers and flurries will continue under a considerable amount of cloud cover. There is a chance that a few narrow bands of heavier snow showers setup later tonight-early Monday morning over parts of north-central and east-central Minnesota as a strong trough/upper low approaches from the NW, these bands will be quite localized, however, but could drop anywhere from 0.5 to around 2.0 inches of snow by dawn in a few spots, but most of us shouldn’t see any accumulating snow tonight. Lows will range from around 20 to 30 degrees.
Snow showers or flurries early in the morning followed by partly to mostly cloudy and cool conditions with highs in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees. Another fast moving system with its warm front and cold front will pass through the Northland Monday night with a few snow or rain showers possible mainly over far northern Minnesota.
Blustery and cool. Northwest winds gusting to 30 mph with highs in the 30s to around 40 degrees.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 15
Sunrise Monday: 7:27 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 6:22 PM CDT