/Issued 5:38 PM CDT, Monday, October 15, 2018/
18z NAM model 10-15-2018
That’s quite a large area of the U.S. that has had at least some snow so far this season!
RTMA model from late Monday morning, October 15, 2018
Incredible amount of cold air for mid October, and the cold extends all the way south to Texas today where normal highs are in 80s at this time of year!
24 hour temperature change map between 12 PM Sunday and 12 PM Monday — Some parts of the southern Plains were 30 to nearly 45 degrees colder this afternoon compared to Sunday afternoon. Temperature increases were highest over parts of the northern Rockies and around the Mid-Atlantic states today (Black outlined areas on map)
Snowfall reports from October 15, 2018
2 SW Leonidas, MN: 1.5″
7 SSW Grand Rapids, MN: 1.5″
2 SE Spooner, WI: 1.5″
7 WSW Pine River, MN: 1.2″
4 SSE Herbster, WI: 1.2″
Chisholm, MN: 1.1″
6 SW Webb Lake, WI: 1.1″
3 ENE Ball Club, MN: 1.0″
1 E La Pointe, WI: 1.0″
Duluth Airport: 0.3″
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
•3 days with snowfall of at least 0.1 inch so far this month (thru the 15th) Average for October is 2 days; Record is 8 days set in October 1959, tied in October 1925.
Did some research today to find out the last time we had an October that’s been as cold as this one, the answer is October 2009 which ended with an average temperature of 39.0 degrees (-4.2 degrees below average)
Note: October 2018 (thru the 14th) had an average temperature of 41.1 degrees (-5.4 degrees below average)
Interesting to note that the winter of 2009-10 was an Modoki El Nino event, and this upcoming winter is also forecast to have a similar kind of El Nino. So what was the winter like in 2009-10 after such a cold October?
Note: Meteorological winter consists of the months of December, February and January
The winter of 2009-10 had an average temperature of 12.8 degrees which was slightly colder than the average of 13.3 degrees.
Snowfall was above average for the winter of 2009-10 with 56.6 inches of snow (Average is 49.5 inches) Snowiest month was December with 33.4 inches of snow! But the annual snowfall total was well below average with just 65.8 inches of snow (Average is ~86 inches)
…Climate Data for October 14, 2018…
International Falls, Minnesota
Record coldest maximum temperature set for October 14 with a high on Sunday of 35 degrees. The previous coldest high temp on record for October 14 was 36 degrees set in 1959, tied in 1970.
Record coldest maximum temperature set for October 14 with a high on Sunday of 38 degrees. The previous coldest high temp on record for October 14 was 40 degrees set in 1937, tied in 1959.
Tied for coldest maximum temperature on record for October 14 with a high on Sunday of 37 degrees. This record was first set on October 14, 1876, tied on October 14, 1943 and then again on Sunday.
Tied for coldest maximum temperature on record for October 14 with a high on Sunday of 34 degrees. This record was first set on October 14, 1992.
2nd coldest maximum temperature on record for October 14 with a high on Sunday of 36 degrees. The record coldest high temp on record for October 14 is 35 degrees set in 1943.
The system which brought a coating to around 2 inches of snow to parts of our area early this Monday morning is now centered over the eastern Great Lakes late this afternoon, behind this system skies cleared out nicely across most of the Northland this afternoon, but clouds are already moving in once again from the NW as our next system heads in this direction. Highs today were generally in the mid 30s to low 40s, so despite the sunshine, highs were still well below average for mid October.
RAP model analysis late this afternoon revealed a NW flow covering the upper Midwest. An impressive shot of cold air for October standards has brought the 0C 850mb contour down into west Texas today while a shot of warmer air covered the northern Rockies and northern Plains with 850mb temps of +2 to +8C.
Forecast for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
[Tonight and Tuesday]
The main weather story for this period will be the gusty winds which will be out of the SW tonight, then shifting to the NW Tuesday. Southwesterly breezes tonight will usher in some warm air advection as a warm front swings through the area, but we won’t be in the warm sector very long thanks to a fast moving cold front which moves through from NW-SE early Tuesday morning, winds will become gusty out of the NW which ushers in another chilly airmass on Tuesday. Wind speeds tonight and Tuesday will be in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts to 35 mph. Lows tonight will range from around 30 to 40 degrees, highs Tuesday in the 30s with low to mid 40s in eastern Minnesota, near Lake Superior and in northwest Wisconsin. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight and Tuesday with a few showers of snow and rain possible.
Note: There is a chance for some lake effect snow showers on some of the larger inland lakes across the Northland Tuesday night as 850mb temps drop to around -10C!
We stay on the cool side of things Wednesday with highs in the 30s to lower 40s, but a warmup is still on tap for late this week with highs Thursday in the 50s to lower 60s, and these milder temperatures could linger into Friday depending on the timing of the next cold front, if the cold front moves through quicker, then Friday won’t be as warm, but if the front slows down, then mild temps would continue on Friday, regardless the cool Canadian air returns over the weekend with a coating of snow possible for some of us on Saturday.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 16
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:28 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 6:20 PM CDT