/Issued 5:40 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 16, 2018/
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 10-16-2018
Red outlined area on map is the bubble of warm air which moves over the upper Midwest on Thursday, but cold air highlighted by the white outlined area on map drops south and into the upper Midwest for Saturday and Sunday with record or a top 5 lowest maximum and minimum temperature possible for some locations in the Northland this weekend.
18z NAM model 10-16-2018
Keeping an eye on a rather strong disturbance which is forecast to drop S/SE out of western Ontario Province late this week, this system could affect the Northland Friday night-Saturday bringing snow showers or mixed precipitation to our area, and possibly a light accumulation of snow in some parts of the area.
12z GEFS model 10-16-2018
Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid thru November 1, 2018.
Overall the pattern is a cool one for the Northland for the rest of October, although will likely get an occasional warm-up mixed in, but I’m not expecting these waves of warmth to last very long given the projected upper level pattern and NW flow aloft.
…Climate Data for October 15, 2018…
Tied for 3rd coldest high temperature on record for October 15 with a high on Monday of 39 degrees The coldest high temperature on record for October 15 is 36 degrees set in 1952.
4th snowiest October 15 on record with 0.3 inches of snow on Monday. The snowiest October 15 occurred in 1966 with 7.9 inches of snow.
International Falls, Minnesota
Tied for 4th snowiest October 15 on record with 0.1 inch of snow on Monday. The snowiest October 15 occurred in 1952 with 3.1 inches of snow.
Tied for 4th coldest high temperature on record for October 15 with a high on Monday of 44 degrees. The coldest high temperature on record for October 15 is 41 degrees set in 1943, tied in 1991.
Tied for 5th coldest high temperature on record for October 15 with a high on Monday of 44 degrees. The coldest high temperature on record for October 15 is 40 degrees set in 1980.
A breezy fall day with changing airmasses today. Southern areas saw quite a bit of sunshine today with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s. Cooler up north with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the 30s. There’s also been a few light snow or rain showers today mainly over northern Minnesota. As mentioned previously, it was a breezy day with northwesterly winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts over 30 mph!
RAP model analysis from late Tuesday afternoon showed a NW flow aloft covering the upper Midwest with a reinforcing shot of chilly air consisting of 850mb temperatures of -4 to -8C over the Northland.
Breezy and cool with mostly cloudy skies and scattered snow showers/flurries. There could be enough snow in a few spots to whiten things up just a bit, but overall not expecting much more than a half inch of snow tonight, but this could be just enough snow to cause some slick travel conditions tonight into Wednesday morning. Lows will range from around 20 degrees in far northern Minnesota to the lower 30s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. 30-40 knot 850mb winds will linger tonight, some of this will mix down to the surface with wind gusts to around 30 mph possible.
Scattered snow showers and flurries will end early in the day, otherwise partly to mostly sunny skies are expected Wednesday. Won’t be very warm though as 850mb temps range from -5 to -15C from SW-NE. Highs Wednesday will be in the 30s with lower 40s in parts of east-central Minnesota. High pressure will be over the central Plains Wednesday, this high moves off to the east Wednesday night with a milder SW flow developing on the backside of this high.
Windy weather for Thursday but it will be warmer with a nice push of warm air advecting E-SE out of the northern Rockies with 850mb temperatures climbing to +8 to +12C! Highs Thursday are expected to range from the mid 50s to mid 60s which if it verifies would be the mildest day we’ve seen around here in roughly 2 weeks, and these forecast highs for Thursday are actually above average for October 18th. Note: Duluth, Minnesota hasn’t had an above average temperature since September 24 (Around 3 weeks ago!)
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 17
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:29 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 6:18 PM CDT